Realtor Tells Me Not To Sell

[Fletch]

I sympathize with your decision as I just made it myself. I just sold my place last month and moved into a rental. I bought in 2005 with 20% down, so I suspect you have more equity than I did if you bought in 2003. I obviously lost most of my down payment, but by my estimation, I can likely regain that lost equity faster simply by renting and saving the difference.

I would encourage you to consider how much the flexibility afforded you by selling now is worth. That was the decider for me. I might want to move out of San Diego in the next two years. Now I can without worrying about having to unload my house and potentially being upside down.

[fredo4]

Yikes. That’s a tough one. IMO it depends on how much you like the house and area and whether or not you can afford to wait the down turn out. The most recent down turns have been about 5 years long, but the situation that we’re in right now is unprecedented so it’s hard to tell how long this one will last (with govnt.intervention, etc). Here’s a graph that shows the peaks and valleys of RE over the years and may give an indication on how long this downturn will go.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

[fredo4]

Yikes. That’s a tough one. IMO it depends on how much you like the house and area and whether or not you can afford to wait the down turn out. The most recent down turns have been about 5 years long, but the situation that we’re in right now is unprecedented so it’s hard to tell how long this one will last (with govnt.intervention, etc). Here’s a graph that shows the peaks and valleys of RE over the years and may give an indication on how long this downturn will go.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

[fredo4]

Yikes. That’s a tough one. IMO it depends on how much you like the house and area and whether or not you can afford to wait the down turn out. The most recent down turns have been about 5 years long, but the situation that we’re in right now is unprecedented so it’s hard to tell how long this one will last (with govnt.intervention, etc). Here’s a graph that shows the peaks and valleys of RE over the years and may give an indication on how long this downturn will go.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

[fredo4]

Yikes. That’s a tough one. IMO it depends on how much you like the house and area and whether or not you can afford to wait the down turn out. The most recent down turns have been about 5 years long, but the situation that we’re in right now is unprecedented so it’s hard to tell how long this one will last (with govnt.intervention, etc). Here’s a graph that shows the peaks and valleys of RE over the years and may give an indication on how long this downturn will go.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

[fredo4]

Yikes. That’s a tough one. IMO it depends on how much you like the house and area and whether or not you can afford to wait the down turn out. The most recent down turns have been about 5 years long, but the situation that we’re in right now is unprecedented so it’s hard to tell how long this one will last (with govnt.intervention, etc). Here’s a graph that shows the peaks and valleys of RE over the years and may give an indication on how long this downturn will go.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

[LostCat]

I live in the Del Cerro area. Have two kids. One is about to start school next year. The school is good and I won’t have to pay for private (not that I could afford it anyhow). We like the neighbors, etc. It’s more of a decision on if the housing market is going to drop another 20 or 30%. And then how long it will take to come back. Will inflation bring it back quicker?

[LostCat]

I live in the Del Cerro area. Have two kids. One is about to start school next year. The school is good and I won’t have to pay for private (not that I could afford it anyhow). We like the neighbors, etc. It’s more of a decision on if the housing market is going to drop another 20 or 30%. And then how long it will take to come back. Will inflation bring it back quicker?

[LostCat]

I live in the Del Cerro area. Have two kids. One is about to start school next year. The school is good and I won’t have to pay for private (not that I could afford it anyhow). We like the neighbors, etc. It’s more of a decision on if the housing market is going to drop another 20 or 30%. And then how long it will take to come back. Will inflation bring it back quicker?

[LostCat]

I live in the Del Cerro area. Have two kids. One is about to start school next year. The school is good and I won’t have to pay for private (not that I could afford it anyhow). We like the neighbors, etc. It’s more of a decision on if the housing market is going to drop another 20 or 30%. And then how long it will take to come back. Will inflation bring it back quicker?

[LostCat]

I live in the Del Cerro area. Have two kids. One is about to start school next year. The school is good and I won’t have to pay for private (not that I could afford it anyhow). We like the neighbors, etc. It’s more of a decision on if the housing market is going to drop another 20 or 30%. And then how long it will take to come back. Will inflation bring it back quicker?

[SD Realtor]

As you said the real question is simply the projection of how far down you think the market will go. The secondary question is if you are going to sell then are you okay with being a nomad for a few years. If you believe that the local area where you want to live is going to run downhill another 20% or more then logic would dictate BASED ONLY ON FINANCIAL NUMBERS that you should sell.

Realize that when you do want to buy again you may indeed find a different financing market with more stringent policies then you incurred in 2003. Also you will definitely need to be employed, etc… A strong inflationary environment will not necessarly be good for housing prices. Don’t confuse true appreciation with inflation. The nominal means to combat inflation is to tighten the money supply which includes raising interest rates which will depress housing prices.

I believe a safe assumption is that when we do hit bottom there is no way in heck you will see a “fast” runup in pricing again. Just my opinion.

[SD Realtor]

As you said the real question is simply the projection of how far down you think the market will go. The secondary question is if you are going to sell then are you okay with being a nomad for a few years. If you believe that the local area where you want to live is going to run downhill another 20% or more then logic would dictate BASED ONLY ON FINANCIAL NUMBERS that you should sell.

Realize that when you do want to buy again you may indeed find a different financing market with more stringent policies then you incurred in 2003. Also you will definitely need to be employed, etc… A strong inflationary environment will not necessarly be good for housing prices. Don’t confuse true appreciation with inflation. The nominal means to combat inflation is to tighten the money supply which includes raising interest rates which will depress housing prices.

I believe a safe assumption is that when we do hit bottom there is no way in heck you will see a “fast” runup in pricing again. Just my opinion.

[SD Realtor]

As you said the real question is simply the projection of how far down you think the market will go. The secondary question is if you are going to sell then are you okay with being a nomad for a few years. If you believe that the local area where you want to live is going to run downhill another 20% or more then logic would dictate BASED ONLY ON FINANCIAL NUMBERS that you should sell.

Realize that when you do want to buy again you may indeed find a different financing market with more stringent policies then you incurred in 2003. Also you will definitely need to be employed, etc… A strong inflationary environment will not necessarly be good for housing prices. Don’t confuse true appreciation with inflation. The nominal means to combat inflation is to tighten the money supply which includes raising interest rates which will depress housing prices.

I believe a safe assumption is that when we do hit bottom there is no way in heck you will see a “fast” runup in pricing again. Just my opinion.

[SD Realtor]

As you said the real question is simply the projection of how far down you think the market will go. The secondary question is if you are going to sell then are you okay with being a nomad for a few years. If you believe that the local area where you want to live is going to run downhill another 20% or more then logic would dictate BASED ONLY ON FINANCIAL NUMBERS that you should sell.

Realize that when you do want to buy again you may indeed find a different financing market with more stringent policies then you incurred in 2003. Also you will definitely need to be employed, etc… A strong inflationary environment will not necessarly be good for housing prices. Don’t confuse true appreciation with inflation. The nominal means to combat inflation is to tighten the money supply which includes raising interest rates which will depress housing prices.

I believe a safe assumption is that when we do hit bottom there is no way in heck you will see a “fast” runup in pricing again. Just my opinion.

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