Real estate bubble 2013

[The-Shoveler]

I think abnormally low rates are going to be around a good while yet IMO.

Besides all the recent talk of ending QE, I don’t see it happening unless or until we see wage inflation occur.

In Absence of inflation I don’t see how they will be able to pull it off.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=thebazman]

[/quote]

Wow and that’s with loans being 30% cheaper.

Have we really fallen that far or was the peak really that high? Is the whole thing being masked by a shift in quality and type?

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=no_such_reality]

Have we really fallen that far or was the peak really that high? Is the whole thing being masked by a shift in quality and type?[/quote]

That’s comparing same-hole sales so it’s hard to see how there could be a real big shift in quality. Trashed foreclosures would be one way I guess. But generally, that’s as close as we have to an accurate aggregate number.

[SD Realtor]

The other thing is that sub markets matter. In some of the more desired sub markets I have seen pricing making it almost all the way back, nor did I see it drop as far as the chart indicates either.

[no_such_reality]

I understand that Rich. I was thinking the median isn’t down 30%+ still is it?

Found my own answer…
http://piggington.com/images/housing_data_oct_2012-2.jpg

We appear to have been so low so long that I’ve forgotten.

But yes, I guess that does seem right. I remember looking at SFRs by the beach in HB and thinking $1.4 million buys a home with bleeping gerbil chew marks on the doors in the kids bedrooms?

OMG, I’m looking at prices today and thinking they’re insane, but… wow. Yep, not the house, but something similar, sold $1.4 in 2006, closed for $850K in 2011.

[The-Shoveler]

Is it in a good school district near QCOM ?

Yea it’s probably near peak pricing again.

Is it near or in TV

Yea its probably still 25%-30% off peak.

There’s a big difference in locations.

BTW Seems Mc-Mansion’s are back in style if you got the bucks (I don’t think they really went out of style, it was just the media or whatever trying to influence buyers to fit their agenda IMO).

[DaCounselor]

What spdrun said, actually. Doesn’t Fannie have 1.7 million homes that are 90+ days delinquent?? What is Fannie, about 50% of the market? So if all the other junk paper out there is equivalent to Fannie’s then we are looking at about 3.4 million homes that are 90+ days. That’s a few homes.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=DaCounselor]What spdrun said, actually. Doesn’t Fannie have 1.7 million homes that are 90+ days delinquent?? What is Fannie, about 50% of the market? So if all the other junk paper out there is equivalent to Fannie’s then we are looking at about 3.4 million homes that are 90+ days. That’s a few homes.[/quote]

Yep probably, But my guess there are a lot less of them in good school districts near QCOM.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=DaCounselor]What spdrun said, actually. Doesn’t Fannie have 1.7 million homes that are 90+ days delinquent?? What is Fannie, about 50% of the market? So if all the other junk paper out there is equivalent to Fannie’s then we are looking at about 3.4 million homes that are 90+ days. That’s a few homes.[/quote]

I’ve looked on the Fannie website recently and realized that most of their inventory in SD County are condos. There are a few scattered SFR’s here and there but they usually get sold in one day or less. I also feel that they are priced competitively given that some of them have not been completely fixed up since being lost in foreclosure (perhaps just cleaned up). So they’re not really a “bargain.”

http://www.homepath.com/

OTOH, the counties of Riverside, San Bernardino, Fresno, Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin Counties have a LOT more FNMA SFR’s to choose from. As do the few “flyover states” that I briefly looked at.

Sacamento County distressed properties seem to be moving very briskly.

[The-Shoveler]

From my limited observation, distressed sales are moving extremely quickly just about everywhere in SoCal,

With the possible exception of short sales but that is not being caused by lack of buyer interest.
Just the SS process itself.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]The other thing is that sub markets matter. In some of the more desired sub markets I have seen pricing making it almost all the way back, nor did I see it drop as far as the chart indicates either.[/quote]

Absolutely. In our neighborhood, there have been a few recent sales that are probably ABOVE “peak” prices during the bubble, and they are selling very quickly. It is insane.

[Author]

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