rancho santa fe auction — 14723 Calle Carla – MLS# 071071438

[Raybyrnes]

raptorduck

Can you share wiht us what you have found with respect to pricing on homes that you looked at and actually sold. It might provide insight into how the high end is holding up. Are homes selling for asking price or below asking.

[Raybyrnes]

raptorduck

Can you share wiht us what you have found with respect to pricing on homes that you looked at and actually sold. It might provide insight into how the high end is holding up. Are homes selling for asking price or below asking.

[patientlywaiting]

Here’s the link.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071071438-14723_Calle_Carla_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

You guys keep thinking that the high-end is somewhat immune. Wishful thinking.

I think the low end will drop first, then stabilize. But the high-end will drop like a rock once the recession hits. $4 million or $1 million makes no difference to most people. They still can’t afford it. The newly rich who made their money in the last few years will be feeling the paint hard when the easy money is withdrawn.

It happens every time. Look at the 1990s and see what happened to Fairbanks and surroundings.

[patientlywaiting]

Here’s the link.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071071438-14723_Calle_Carla_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

You guys keep thinking that the high-end is somewhat immune. Wishful thinking.

I think the low end will drop first, then stabilize. But the high-end will drop like a rock once the recession hits. $4 million or $1 million makes no difference to most people. They still can’t afford it. The newly rich who made their money in the last few years will be feeling the paint hard when the easy money is withdrawn.

It happens every time. Look at the 1990s and see what happened to Fairbanks and surroundings.

[patientlywaiting]

Here’s the link.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071071438-14723_Calle_Carla_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

You guys keep thinking that the high-end is somewhat immune. Wishful thinking.

I think the low end will drop first, then stabilize. But the high-end will drop like a rock once the recession hits. $4 million or $1 million makes no difference to most people. They still can’t afford it. The newly rich who made their money in the last few years will be feeling the paint hard when the easy money is withdrawn.

It happens every time. Look at the 1990s and see what happened to Fairbanks and surroundings.

[patientlywaiting]

Here’s the link.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071071438-14723_Calle_Carla_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

You guys keep thinking that the high-end is somewhat immune. Wishful thinking.

I think the low end will drop first, then stabilize. But the high-end will drop like a rock once the recession hits. $4 million or $1 million makes no difference to most people. They still can’t afford it. The newly rich who made their money in the last few years will be feeling the paint hard when the easy money is withdrawn.

It happens every time. Look at the 1990s and see what happened to Fairbanks and surroundings.

[XBoxBoy]

Not sure what Raptorduck has found, but I’ve been closely watching La Jolla for the last several years. Here are a couple insights that I can give.

1) Lots of stuff has come on the market, and then after about six months been taken off without selling. Seems that plenty of people are interested in selling, but will wait for the market to recover. (I suspect that most of them don’t have any idea how long it will be but I’ll leave that for another thread.) Consequently, I do think that in high end areas there is a significant backlog building up, even if it isn’t on the MLS.

2) Some people get lucky, but most don’t. By that I mean that lots of houses just sit on the market. And sit and sit. BUT, every couple of weeks something goes pending that causes me to ask, WTF was that person thinking. The down side of this to those of us waiting for the high ends to come down is that then there is a new comp to justify higher prices. And from what I’m seeing, most sellers in La Jolla are hoping for prices to still be at peak 2005 prices. Alternatively, sometimes you see something go at a decent price, but only occasionally. Likewise, some places sell at full asking price, but some sell at pretty significant discount from what they originally asked. It’s a very mixed bag.

3) Because La Jolla (and other high end areas) are so different house to house, it is very difficult to determine how the market is doing. In areas with tract housing, where the houses are all about the same, it’s much easier to do comparisons. But in La Jolla, it’s really hard to do that. Consequently, it’s really hard to tell how much of a drop in prices we have had. (The flip side of this is that it is easy to selectively pick comps that justify high prices, or to selectively pick comps that justify falling prices.)

4) The number of buyers has significantly dried up. Particularly since the start of the credit crisis when jumbo loans suddenly got hard to find. From the couple of open houses, I’ve been to lately I’d have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don’t know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Not sure what Raptorduck has found, but I’ve been closely watching La Jolla for the last several years. Here are a couple insights that I can give.

1) Lots of stuff has come on the market, and then after about six months been taken off without selling. Seems that plenty of people are interested in selling, but will wait for the market to recover. (I suspect that most of them don’t have any idea how long it will be but I’ll leave that for another thread.) Consequently, I do think that in high end areas there is a significant backlog building up, even if it isn’t on the MLS.

2) Some people get lucky, but most don’t. By that I mean that lots of houses just sit on the market. And sit and sit. BUT, every couple of weeks something goes pending that causes me to ask, WTF was that person thinking. The down side of this to those of us waiting for the high ends to come down is that then there is a new comp to justify higher prices. And from what I’m seeing, most sellers in La Jolla are hoping for prices to still be at peak 2005 prices. Alternatively, sometimes you see something go at a decent price, but only occasionally. Likewise, some places sell at full asking price, but some sell at pretty significant discount from what they originally asked. It’s a very mixed bag.

3) Because La Jolla (and other high end areas) are so different house to house, it is very difficult to determine how the market is doing. In areas with tract housing, where the houses are all about the same, it’s much easier to do comparisons. But in La Jolla, it’s really hard to do that. Consequently, it’s really hard to tell how much of a drop in prices we have had. (The flip side of this is that it is easy to selectively pick comps that justify high prices, or to selectively pick comps that justify falling prices.)

4) The number of buyers has significantly dried up. Particularly since the start of the credit crisis when jumbo loans suddenly got hard to find. From the couple of open houses, I’ve been to lately I’d have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don’t know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Not sure what Raptorduck has found, but I’ve been closely watching La Jolla for the last several years. Here are a couple insights that I can give.

1) Lots of stuff has come on the market, and then after about six months been taken off without selling. Seems that plenty of people are interested in selling, but will wait for the market to recover. (I suspect that most of them don’t have any idea how long it will be but I’ll leave that for another thread.) Consequently, I do think that in high end areas there is a significant backlog building up, even if it isn’t on the MLS.

2) Some people get lucky, but most don’t. By that I mean that lots of houses just sit on the market. And sit and sit. BUT, every couple of weeks something goes pending that causes me to ask, WTF was that person thinking. The down side of this to those of us waiting for the high ends to come down is that then there is a new comp to justify higher prices. And from what I’m seeing, most sellers in La Jolla are hoping for prices to still be at peak 2005 prices. Alternatively, sometimes you see something go at a decent price, but only occasionally. Likewise, some places sell at full asking price, but some sell at pretty significant discount from what they originally asked. It’s a very mixed bag.

3) Because La Jolla (and other high end areas) are so different house to house, it is very difficult to determine how the market is doing. In areas with tract housing, where the houses are all about the same, it’s much easier to do comparisons. But in La Jolla, it’s really hard to do that. Consequently, it’s really hard to tell how much of a drop in prices we have had. (The flip side of this is that it is easy to selectively pick comps that justify high prices, or to selectively pick comps that justify falling prices.)

4) The number of buyers has significantly dried up. Particularly since the start of the credit crisis when jumbo loans suddenly got hard to find. From the couple of open houses, I’ve been to lately I’d have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don’t know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Not sure what Raptorduck has found, but I’ve been closely watching La Jolla for the last several years. Here are a couple insights that I can give.

1) Lots of stuff has come on the market, and then after about six months been taken off without selling. Seems that plenty of people are interested in selling, but will wait for the market to recover. (I suspect that most of them don’t have any idea how long it will be but I’ll leave that for another thread.) Consequently, I do think that in high end areas there is a significant backlog building up, even if it isn’t on the MLS.

2) Some people get lucky, but most don’t. By that I mean that lots of houses just sit on the market. And sit and sit. BUT, every couple of weeks something goes pending that causes me to ask, WTF was that person thinking. The down side of this to those of us waiting for the high ends to come down is that then there is a new comp to justify higher prices. And from what I’m seeing, most sellers in La Jolla are hoping for prices to still be at peak 2005 prices. Alternatively, sometimes you see something go at a decent price, but only occasionally. Likewise, some places sell at full asking price, but some sell at pretty significant discount from what they originally asked. It’s a very mixed bag.

3) Because La Jolla (and other high end areas) are so different house to house, it is very difficult to determine how the market is doing. In areas with tract housing, where the houses are all about the same, it’s much easier to do comparisons. But in La Jolla, it’s really hard to do that. Consequently, it’s really hard to tell how much of a drop in prices we have had. (The flip side of this is that it is easy to selectively pick comps that justify high prices, or to selectively pick comps that justify falling prices.)

4) The number of buyers has significantly dried up. Particularly since the start of the credit crisis when jumbo loans suddenly got hard to find. From the couple of open houses, I’ve been to lately I’d have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don’t know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

XBoxBoy

[patientlywaiting]

I've been to lately I'd have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don't know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

Very good post.  

My bet is that Spring 2008 will be a dud.  Fall 2008 is when most folks will be out of "holding power" and will most likely give up, especially if we have a recession by then. 

We shall see….  

[patientlywaiting]

I've been to lately I'd have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don't know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

Very good post.  

My bet is that Spring 2008 will be a dud.  Fall 2008 is when most folks will be out of "holding power" and will most likely give up, especially if we have a recession by then. 

We shall see….  

[patientlywaiting]

I've been to lately I'd have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don't know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

Very good post.  

My bet is that Spring 2008 will be a dud.  Fall 2008 is when most folks will be out of "holding power" and will most likely give up, especially if we have a recession by then. 

We shall see….  

[patientlywaiting]

I've been to lately I'd have to say that many are hoping for a nice bounce in the Spring of 2008. I don't know what will happen then, but I do think that spring 2008 will be crucial to determining how the rest of this downturn goes. If enough sales can be made in spring 2008, then the high end areas will hold more than lots of people think. But if spring 2008 is dead on arrival, the pressure from all those waiting for a housing rebound will start to drive things down in a serious way.

Very good post.  

My bet is that Spring 2008 will be a dud.  Fall 2008 is when most folks will be out of "holding power" and will most likely give up, especially if we have a recession by then. 

We shall see….  

[Bugs]

I agree with that assessment – there are still some suckers who are buying the NARs party line. That last remaining shred of credibility will run out once Spring 2008 proves to be even worse that Spring 2007.

At the end of 2006 we were predicting the the 3Q 2007 would be when things started moving in earnest. It happened a little ahead of schedule but only because it was helped along a little by the premature unravelling of the Bear-Stearns funds.

However, all pretenses at the quick recovery will be abandoned once the spring 2008 seasons proves to be a bust. I that by the fall of 2008 the streets will be running red and we’re going to see some really shocking price movement. I think that’s when we’re going to see the majority of movement in this downcycle; after that the price declines will just bleed out.

[Author]

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