“INVESTORS” who haven’t learned their lessons?

[peterb]

You can indeed do quite well waiting for all the indicators to be going on the up-trend before buying into RE. And it’s far less risk than trying to time the bottom. Just dont lag too much before taking action.These RE trends tend to run for about 4 or 5 years on average. Plenty of time to make very good money.

If and when things start to rise again, it will be like all the other times….many people will be very discouraged about the RE market improving and will wait 2 or 3 years before getting in, eventhough the majority of indicators have gone positive for over a year. That’s why so many investments have blow-off tops, no matter what the asset class being considered. It’s human psychology.

[barnaby33]

EconProf, you keep harping on the long term fundamentals in which AZ is better off than CA. I’ve never heard anyone say a large retiree base (which you specifically mention) as a long term fundamental, or a positive.

Each place has things that attract and things that detract. AZ and NV are no different. However I’d be very careful of trumpeting the positives of places who’s basic existence is premised on people being ejected from California (whether by choice or economics).

You can fix tax policy. You can’t fix no water or insufferable heat. California has problems and they are massive. They are however FIXABLE.

Josh

[barnaby33]

EconProf, you keep harping on the long term fundamentals in which AZ is better off than CA. I’ve never heard anyone say a large retiree base (which you specifically mention) as a long term fundamental, or a positive.

Each place has things that attract and things that detract. AZ and NV are no different. However I’d be very careful of trumpeting the positives of places who’s basic existence is premised on people being ejected from California (whether by choice or economics).

You can fix tax policy. You can’t fix no water or insufferable heat. California has problems and they are massive. They are however FIXABLE.

Josh

[barnaby33]

EconProf, you keep harping on the long term fundamentals in which AZ is better off than CA. I’ve never heard anyone say a large retiree base (which you specifically mention) as a long term fundamental, or a positive.

Each place has things that attract and things that detract. AZ and NV are no different. However I’d be very careful of trumpeting the positives of places who’s basic existence is premised on people being ejected from California (whether by choice or economics).

You can fix tax policy. You can’t fix no water or insufferable heat. California has problems and they are massive. They are however FIXABLE.

Josh

[barnaby33]

EconProf, you keep harping on the long term fundamentals in which AZ is better off than CA. I’ve never heard anyone say a large retiree base (which you specifically mention) as a long term fundamental, or a positive.

Each place has things that attract and things that detract. AZ and NV are no different. However I’d be very careful of trumpeting the positives of places who’s basic existence is premised on people being ejected from California (whether by choice or economics).

You can fix tax policy. You can’t fix no water or insufferable heat. California has problems and they are massive. They are however FIXABLE.

Josh

[barnaby33]

EconProf, you keep harping on the long term fundamentals in which AZ is better off than CA. I’ve never heard anyone say a large retiree base (which you specifically mention) as a long term fundamental, or a positive.

Each place has things that attract and things that detract. AZ and NV are no different. However I’d be very careful of trumpeting the positives of places who’s basic existence is premised on people being ejected from California (whether by choice or economics).

You can fix tax policy. You can’t fix no water or insufferable heat. California has problems and they are massive. They are however FIXABLE.

Josh

[EconProf]

Barnaby: CA’s problems are theoretically fixable, yes. But given recent trends, that is a bet I would pass on.
The two (at least) important long term fundamentals affecting real estate are demographic and political/economic. That CA is driving away its most productive, entrepreneurial, tax-paying middle and upper-income people is well documented. Its overly generous government programs are attracting the tax-users, whether on the dole or the unionized government work force. The current fiscal crisis is showing more of the same–an inability to fundamentally curb wild overspending. Instead we’ll have angry politicians getting revenge on voters by cutting the most visible programs in the most painful ways their creative minds can come up with.
While there will always be some pockets of investment opportunity in such a diverse state, I’d rather place my long-term bets on a state like Utah, Texas, AZ, in a growing and dynamic city welcoming CA businesses and well-educated, taxpaying citizens.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: CA’s problems are theoretically fixable, yes. But given recent trends, that is a bet I would pass on.
The two (at least) important long term fundamentals affecting real estate are demographic and political/economic. That CA is driving away its most productive, entrepreneurial, tax-paying middle and upper-income people is well documented. Its overly generous government programs are attracting the tax-users, whether on the dole or the unionized government work force. The current fiscal crisis is showing more of the same–an inability to fundamentally curb wild overspending. Instead we’ll have angry politicians getting revenge on voters by cutting the most visible programs in the most painful ways their creative minds can come up with.
While there will always be some pockets of investment opportunity in such a diverse state, I’d rather place my long-term bets on a state like Utah, Texas, AZ, in a growing and dynamic city welcoming CA businesses and well-educated, taxpaying citizens.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: CA’s problems are theoretically fixable, yes. But given recent trends, that is a bet I would pass on.
The two (at least) important long term fundamentals affecting real estate are demographic and political/economic. That CA is driving away its most productive, entrepreneurial, tax-paying middle and upper-income people is well documented. Its overly generous government programs are attracting the tax-users, whether on the dole or the unionized government work force. The current fiscal crisis is showing more of the same–an inability to fundamentally curb wild overspending. Instead we’ll have angry politicians getting revenge on voters by cutting the most visible programs in the most painful ways their creative minds can come up with.
While there will always be some pockets of investment opportunity in such a diverse state, I’d rather place my long-term bets on a state like Utah, Texas, AZ, in a growing and dynamic city welcoming CA businesses and well-educated, taxpaying citizens.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: CA’s problems are theoretically fixable, yes. But given recent trends, that is a bet I would pass on.
The two (at least) important long term fundamentals affecting real estate are demographic and political/economic. That CA is driving away its most productive, entrepreneurial, tax-paying middle and upper-income people is well documented. Its overly generous government programs are attracting the tax-users, whether on the dole or the unionized government work force. The current fiscal crisis is showing more of the same–an inability to fundamentally curb wild overspending. Instead we’ll have angry politicians getting revenge on voters by cutting the most visible programs in the most painful ways their creative minds can come up with.
While there will always be some pockets of investment opportunity in such a diverse state, I’d rather place my long-term bets on a state like Utah, Texas, AZ, in a growing and dynamic city welcoming CA businesses and well-educated, taxpaying citizens.

[EconProf]

Barnaby: CA’s problems are theoretically fixable, yes. But given recent trends, that is a bet I would pass on.
The two (at least) important long term fundamentals affecting real estate are demographic and political/economic. That CA is driving away its most productive, entrepreneurial, tax-paying middle and upper-income people is well documented. Its overly generous government programs are attracting the tax-users, whether on the dole or the unionized government work force. The current fiscal crisis is showing more of the same–an inability to fundamentally curb wild overspending. Instead we’ll have angry politicians getting revenge on voters by cutting the most visible programs in the most painful ways their creative minds can come up with.
While there will always be some pockets of investment opportunity in such a diverse state, I’d rather place my long-term bets on a state like Utah, Texas, AZ, in a growing and dynamic city welcoming CA businesses and well-educated, taxpaying citizens.

[maktbone]

As someone who grew up in Phoenix, went to school in Tucson, and now resides here in San Diego, I could not agree more with EconProf. If and when I decide to open my own business, it will not be in California due to all the onerous government agencies, taxes, and union work rules I would have to abide by.

As much as I would love to spend my entire career here it just isn’t feasible. While I’d like to cash in on the current real estate bust by acquiring a small condo I could later use as a rental unit, I’m finding better opportunities in the stock market. Two or three years from now when I leave to go get an MBA (nothing against the local programs, I just think I can get into more prestigious programs elsewhere) I will not want to be holding on to an illiquid asset in a bankrupt state with demographic trends working against my favor.

That being said, San Diego isn’t a bad place to be when you’re 25 like I am now.

[maktbone]

As someone who grew up in Phoenix, went to school in Tucson, and now resides here in San Diego, I could not agree more with EconProf. If and when I decide to open my own business, it will not be in California due to all the onerous government agencies, taxes, and union work rules I would have to abide by.

As much as I would love to spend my entire career here it just isn’t feasible. While I’d like to cash in on the current real estate bust by acquiring a small condo I could later use as a rental unit, I’m finding better opportunities in the stock market. Two or three years from now when I leave to go get an MBA (nothing against the local programs, I just think I can get into more prestigious programs elsewhere) I will not want to be holding on to an illiquid asset in a bankrupt state with demographic trends working against my favor.

That being said, San Diego isn’t a bad place to be when you’re 25 like I am now.

[maktbone]

As someone who grew up in Phoenix, went to school in Tucson, and now resides here in San Diego, I could not agree more with EconProf. If and when I decide to open my own business, it will not be in California due to all the onerous government agencies, taxes, and union work rules I would have to abide by.

As much as I would love to spend my entire career here it just isn’t feasible. While I’d like to cash in on the current real estate bust by acquiring a small condo I could later use as a rental unit, I’m finding better opportunities in the stock market. Two or three years from now when I leave to go get an MBA (nothing against the local programs, I just think I can get into more prestigious programs elsewhere) I will not want to be holding on to an illiquid asset in a bankrupt state with demographic trends working against my favor.

That being said, San Diego isn’t a bad place to be when you’re 25 like I am now.

[maktbone]

As someone who grew up in Phoenix, went to school in Tucson, and now resides here in San Diego, I could not agree more with EconProf. If and when I decide to open my own business, it will not be in California due to all the onerous government agencies, taxes, and union work rules I would have to abide by.

As much as I would love to spend my entire career here it just isn’t feasible. While I’d like to cash in on the current real estate bust by acquiring a small condo I could later use as a rental unit, I’m finding better opportunities in the stock market. Two or three years from now when I leave to go get an MBA (nothing against the local programs, I just think I can get into more prestigious programs elsewhere) I will not want to be holding on to an illiquid asset in a bankrupt state with demographic trends working against my favor.

That being said, San Diego isn’t a bad place to be when you’re 25 like I am now.

[Author]

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