Profit Opportunity #1

[an]

Whoever bought LEND yesterday and kept it till today have just made 50% in one day.

[Anonymous]

Unless they sold it, they may lose it all back tomorrow.

[Wiley]

Would have been a good trade I agree but I’ve never meet anyone nimble enough to make those trades more then once.

As for other plays I like HOG (huge originators of their harley paper) and ACF, subprime auto lender.

[an]

I agree, it’s a very high risk trade. Hence, the high return. I’m trying to confirm my theory regarding trade like this. If you look at both LEND and NEW, after a major drop day, both bounced back around 40-50% or more. It seems like there’s a lot of bottom fishing that occur after a major drop.

[anxvariety]

deadzone and rightside, you guys still in CFC short?

I’ve got a bunch of CFC Jan $30 08 puts at around 2 bucks so I’m down a little, but I’m just waiting for the “uh oh” when the wheels fall off. Also, got some Oct 07 puts but I dumped some of those last week for a minimal loss. I can’t wait for CFCs next quarter report.. this last one seemed pretty shaky. Your thoughts?

[capeman]

CFC is following the fools rally this stock market is having. I’ve been watching the stock and its options heavily for a year now and wish I would have bought Jan 09 puts when it was ~$44 a share equity. It’s on it’s way back up momentarily but I think the stuff is really going to hit the fan not when the market retreats but when people start to focus on delinquent Alt-A and then eventually Prime mortgages. That’s when this guy will start heading back to pre-boom <$10 a share. The options just in the money at the time of purchase seem to be a bargain if this is what happens. I will be in by June.

[Anonymous]

I’m still shorting CFC pretty heavily, also have a bunch of Jan 08 and 09 puts. The wheels could come off literally any day now so I am pretty comfortable with this position even though they have been rallying a little bit.

[PD]

I’ve had some CFC Jan 08 puts for a while now. They are in the red but I expect them to recover. I just bought some more. Overall, my RE related Puts and shorts are well in the black.

[barnaby33]

I bought puts on CFC for Jan 09 and all are in the red, though not terribly. The puts I am concerned about are my LEND puts. Should have dumped at 3.90 a shared, woe is me!

Josh

[Anonymous]

Don’t worry, we may see LEND below 3.90 again by the end of the year.

[PD]

CFC CEO exercises options

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070507/countrywide_financial_insider_transactions.html?.v=1

This is an interesting little tidbit: The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material nonpublic information.

So when did he submit the paperwork? If he submitted the paperwork anytime in the last year, he was acting on inside information and using this trading plan to legalize his insider trading. Hmmmmm….. Anyone know when he filed the paperwork?

[anxvariety]

The CFC CEO sells every April for the last few years. The thing that freaked me out most, in a good way, was how CFC board amended their bylaws or something to indemnify all company officers. So an CFC employee thats get sued, CFC stock covers the bill.

[Anonymous]

Nostradamus would be proud. Thought I would re-start this thread in honor of alex since he doesn’t believe in predictions. If you go through the entire thread it should be interesting to see how much of what we talked about really has played out.

I’m sure if rightside stuck to his guns, he should be in great shape right now with LEND down to $6 (was over $40 at time of writing). I can say that I am making an abosulute killing. So are rightside and I the smartest economists in the world, or do we have supernatural prognistication powers? I don’t think so, just applying common sense.

The only difference is we made the decision to PROFIT from this obvious downturn, while many on this board prefered to wast time debating about when the home prices are going to bottom out.

[Anonymous]

Nostradamus would be proud. Thought I would re-start this thread in honor of alex since he doesn’t believe in predictions. If you go through the entire thread it should be interesting to see how much of what we talked about really has played out.

I’m sure if rightside stuck to his guns, he should be in great shape right now with LEND down to $6 (was over $40 at time of writing). I can say that I am making an abosulute killing. So are rightside and I the smartest economists in the world, or do we have supernatural prognistication powers? I don’t think so, just applying common sense.

The only difference is we made the decision to PROFIT from this obvious downturn, while many on this board prefered to wast time debating about when the home prices are going to bottom out.

[Anonymous]

Nostradamus would be proud. Thought I would re-start this thread in honor of alex since he doesn’t believe in predictions. If you go through the entire thread it should be interesting to see how much of what we talked about really has played out.

I’m sure if rightside stuck to his guns, he should be in great shape right now with LEND down to $6 (was over $40 at time of writing). I can say that I am making an abosulute killing. So are rightside and I the smartest economists in the world, or do we have supernatural prognistication powers? I don’t think so, just applying common sense.

The only difference is we made the decision to PROFIT from this obvious downturn, while many on this board prefered to wast time debating about when the home prices are going to bottom out.

[Author]

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