Predictions for 2008

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[CA renter]

Overall, good calls, Stan.

Happy New Year!!!

…from a fellow Pigg who knows all too well how partying days end once you have kids — and we still think it’s worth it! 😉

[CA renter]

Overall, good calls, Stan.

Happy New Year!!!

…from a fellow Pigg who knows all too well how partying days end once you have kids — and we still think it’s worth it! 😉

[CA renter]

Overall, good calls, Stan.

Happy New Year!!!

…from a fellow Pigg who knows all too well how partying days end once you have kids — and we still think it’s worth it! 😉

[CA renter]

Overall, good calls, Stan.

Happy New Year!!!

…from a fellow Pigg who knows all too well how partying days end once you have kids — and we still think it’s worth it! 😉

[CA renter]

Overall, good calls, Stan.

Happy New Year!!!

…from a fellow Pigg who knows all too well how partying days end once you have kids — and we still think it’s worth it! 😉

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[stockstradr]

Just discovered while trying to cure insomnia with late night browsing:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This appears to be at least three parts brilliant opinions also mixed with one part posts of complete lunacy.

[CA renter]

Karl is right on the mark, IMHO.

My predictions would greatly mirror his.

[CA renter]

Karl is right on the mark, IMHO.

My predictions would greatly mirror his.

[CA renter]

Karl is right on the mark, IMHO.

My predictions would greatly mirror his.

[CA renter]

Karl is right on the mark, IMHO.

My predictions would greatly mirror his.

[Author]

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