Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Kewp, your point is simply a matter of semantics, so I will issue a correction.

OK. Correction: “I will be just as accurate as those calling a top in 2001.”

Schiff was bearish in 2001, but technically was not calling a top in prices.

If someone was bullish on stocks in late 2001 and said that they were in an unsustainable bear run :

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

[kewp]

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

Except Schiff (and a few others) weren’t simply contrarians or grasping at straws. They were observing fundamental macro-economic trends and were bearish on RE as a long-term investment.

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything. Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

[kewp]

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

Except Schiff (and a few others) weren’t simply contrarians or grasping at straws. They were observing fundamental macro-economic trends and were bearish on RE as a long-term investment.

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything. Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

[kewp]

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

Except Schiff (and a few others) weren’t simply contrarians or grasping at straws. They were observing fundamental macro-economic trends and were bearish on RE as a long-term investment.

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything. Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

[kewp]

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

Except Schiff (and a few others) weren’t simply contrarians or grasping at straws. They were observing fundamental macro-economic trends and were bearish on RE as a long-term investment.

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything. Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

[kewp]

Would you say that they got it wrong ?

Or

Would you say that they were simply early on their prescient call, since stocks did stage a huge rally starting in March 2003 ?

Except Schiff (and a few others) weren’t simply contrarians or grasping at straws. They were observing fundamental macro-economic trends and were bearish on RE as a long-term investment.

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything. Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And unless you sold in SD at the top and are renting or moved to a cheaper part of the country, your “timing” was no better.

Well, we got it half right. We happened sold our primary residence in San Diego in June 2005. But we moved to a more expensive city.

But, again, I’m not a financial expert/economist pimping my services to consumers. I’m simply a lay person trying to make educated decisions, mitigate risk and hedge my bets in turbulent times for the good of my family.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And unless you sold in SD at the top and are renting or moved to a cheaper part of the country, your “timing” was no better.

Well, we got it half right. We happened sold our primary residence in San Diego in June 2005. But we moved to a more expensive city.

But, again, I’m not a financial expert/economist pimping my services to consumers. I’m simply a lay person trying to make educated decisions, mitigate risk and hedge my bets in turbulent times for the good of my family.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And unless you sold in SD at the top and are renting or moved to a cheaper part of the country, your “timing” was no better.

Well, we got it half right. We happened sold our primary residence in San Diego in June 2005. But we moved to a more expensive city.

But, again, I’m not a financial expert/economist pimping my services to consumers. I’m simply a lay person trying to make educated decisions, mitigate risk and hedge my bets in turbulent times for the good of my family.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And unless you sold in SD at the top and are renting or moved to a cheaper part of the country, your “timing” was no better.

Well, we got it half right. We happened sold our primary residence in San Diego in June 2005. But we moved to a more expensive city.

But, again, I’m not a financial expert/economist pimping my services to consumers. I’m simply a lay person trying to make educated decisions, mitigate risk and hedge my bets in turbulent times for the good of my family.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And unless you sold in SD at the top and are renting or moved to a cheaper part of the country, your “timing” was no better.

Well, we got it half right. We happened sold our primary residence in San Diego in June 2005. But we moved to a more expensive city.

But, again, I’m not a financial expert/economist pimping my services to consumers. I’m simply a lay person trying to make educated decisions, mitigate risk and hedge my bets in turbulent times for the good of my family.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything.

So, you are saying that an 87% increase in the S&P 500 over a 4-year period is a “supposed rally”.

Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

This is an artifact of your arbitrary (or deliberately deceptive) selection of 2000, which is the peak of a stock market cycle and a near-bottom of the gold price cycle.

If you look at stocks measured versus gold from 1980 to today, you would observe that the DJIA has risen by 8-fold as measured in gold. What’s that ? A 900% increase in stocks ?

1980 was the last peak in gold prices. 2008 is the current peak (for now). Looking over partial cycles results in distortions due to the phasing of those cycles and is driven almost entirely by gold speculation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything.

So, you are saying that an 87% increase in the S&P 500 over a 4-year period is a “supposed rally”.

Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

This is an artifact of your arbitrary (or deliberately deceptive) selection of 2000, which is the peak of a stock market cycle and a near-bottom of the gold price cycle.

If you look at stocks measured versus gold from 1980 to today, you would observe that the DJIA has risen by 8-fold as measured in gold. What’s that ? A 900% increase in stocks ?

1980 was the last peak in gold prices. 2008 is the current peak (for now). Looking over partial cycles results in distortions due to the phasing of those cycles and is driven almost entirely by gold speculation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything.

So, you are saying that an 87% increase in the S&P 500 over a 4-year period is a “supposed rally”.

Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

This is an artifact of your arbitrary (or deliberately deceptive) selection of 2000, which is the peak of a stock market cycle and a near-bottom of the gold price cycle.

If you look at stocks measured versus gold from 1980 to today, you would observe that the DJIA has risen by 8-fold as measured in gold. What’s that ? A 900% increase in stocks ?

1980 was the last peak in gold prices. 2008 is the current peak (for now). Looking over partial cycles results in distortions due to the phasing of those cycles and is driven almost entirely by gold speculation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

In your example I would say they were wrong, as your supposed rally in 2003 was more an artifact of inflation than anything.

So, you are saying that an 87% increase in the S&P 500 over a 4-year period is a “supposed rally”.

Priced in gold or oil equities have been in a bear market since at least 2000.

This is an artifact of your arbitrary (or deliberately deceptive) selection of 2000, which is the peak of a stock market cycle and a near-bottom of the gold price cycle.

If you look at stocks measured versus gold from 1980 to today, you would observe that the DJIA has risen by 8-fold as measured in gold. What’s that ? A 900% increase in stocks ?

1980 was the last peak in gold prices. 2008 is the current peak (for now). Looking over partial cycles results in distortions due to the phasing of those cycles and is driven almost entirely by gold speculation.

[Author]

Posts