Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

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[quote=DaCounselor]”I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
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Only if they sold!
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Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.
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What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

You only missed out on making money in a speculative bubble, where you had to time the jump in and out properly. If you try to get out now you’d be lucky to get a 2001 price in some areas.

And even if you bought in 2001, didn’t refi and have equity you are going to lose it. There’s nothing to stop prices from falling below 2001 levels.

[kewp]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

Exactly. Show me an offer before you claim what your house is *worth*. Otherwise you are just playing the same ‘mark to fantasy’ game the banks are.

It’s important to note that the market hasn’t capitulated yet. The banks are still holding onto their inventory and collecting mortgage insurance. Once the insurers go under the banks are going to be forced to sell off their non-performing assets to the vulture capitalists, which is selling anywhere from one to about twenty cents on the dollar at the moment. We have a long way to go to the bottom.

I personally see 1989 prices for the most distressed properties (IE, condos, ghetto) and better areas settling at around ’99-00 levels.

[kewp]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

Exactly. Show me an offer before you claim what your house is *worth*. Otherwise you are just playing the same ‘mark to fantasy’ game the banks are.

It’s important to note that the market hasn’t capitulated yet. The banks are still holding onto their inventory and collecting mortgage insurance. Once the insurers go under the banks are going to be forced to sell off their non-performing assets to the vulture capitalists, which is selling anywhere from one to about twenty cents on the dollar at the moment. We have a long way to go to the bottom.

I personally see 1989 prices for the most distressed properties (IE, condos, ghetto) and better areas settling at around ’99-00 levels.

[kewp]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

Exactly. Show me an offer before you claim what your house is *worth*. Otherwise you are just playing the same ‘mark to fantasy’ game the banks are.

It’s important to note that the market hasn’t capitulated yet. The banks are still holding onto their inventory and collecting mortgage insurance. Once the insurers go under the banks are going to be forced to sell off their non-performing assets to the vulture capitalists, which is selling anywhere from one to about twenty cents on the dollar at the moment. We have a long way to go to the bottom.

I personally see 1989 prices for the most distressed properties (IE, condos, ghetto) and better areas settling at around ’99-00 levels.

[kewp]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

Exactly. Show me an offer before you claim what your house is *worth*. Otherwise you are just playing the same ‘mark to fantasy’ game the banks are.

It’s important to note that the market hasn’t capitulated yet. The banks are still holding onto their inventory and collecting mortgage insurance. Once the insurers go under the banks are going to be forced to sell off their non-performing assets to the vulture capitalists, which is selling anywhere from one to about twenty cents on the dollar at the moment. We have a long way to go to the bottom.

I personally see 1989 prices for the most distressed properties (IE, condos, ghetto) and better areas settling at around ’99-00 levels.

[kewp]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

Exactly. Show me an offer before you claim what your house is *worth*. Otherwise you are just playing the same ‘mark to fantasy’ game the banks are.

It’s important to note that the market hasn’t capitulated yet. The banks are still holding onto their inventory and collecting mortgage insurance. Once the insurers go under the banks are going to be forced to sell off their non-performing assets to the vulture capitalists, which is selling anywhere from one to about twenty cents on the dollar at the moment. We have a long way to go to the bottom.

I personally see 1989 prices for the most distressed properties (IE, condos, ghetto) and better areas settling at around ’99-00 levels.

[DaCounselor]

My original post was in response to CA Renter’s (an admitted bear since 2001) post regarding being early is not necessarily being wrong. I disagree for the reasons I have already stated.

Looking across San Diego, homes in many areas are still selling at much, much higher prices than in ’01. So the housing bear who called the top in’01 and sat it out has missed that boat. Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money. The guy who didn’t buy can’t do this. Which guy would you rather be?

[DaCounselor]

My original post was in response to CA Renter’s (an admitted bear since 2001) post regarding being early is not necessarily being wrong. I disagree for the reasons I have already stated.

Looking across San Diego, homes in many areas are still selling at much, much higher prices than in ’01. So the housing bear who called the top in’01 and sat it out has missed that boat. Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money. The guy who didn’t buy can’t do this. Which guy would you rather be?

[DaCounselor]

My original post was in response to CA Renter’s (an admitted bear since 2001) post regarding being early is not necessarily being wrong. I disagree for the reasons I have already stated.

Looking across San Diego, homes in many areas are still selling at much, much higher prices than in ’01. So the housing bear who called the top in’01 and sat it out has missed that boat. Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money. The guy who didn’t buy can’t do this. Which guy would you rather be?

[DaCounselor]

My original post was in response to CA Renter’s (an admitted bear since 2001) post regarding being early is not necessarily being wrong. I disagree for the reasons I have already stated.

Looking across San Diego, homes in many areas are still selling at much, much higher prices than in ’01. So the housing bear who called the top in’01 and sat it out has missed that boat. Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money. The guy who didn’t buy can’t do this. Which guy would you rather be?

[DaCounselor]

My original post was in response to CA Renter’s (an admitted bear since 2001) post regarding being early is not necessarily being wrong. I disagree for the reasons I have already stated.

Looking across San Diego, homes in many areas are still selling at much, much higher prices than in ’01. So the housing bear who called the top in’01 and sat it out has missed that boat. Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money. The guy who didn’t buy can’t do this. Which guy would you rather be?

[kewp]

Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money.

How many of these folks you think it will take to lower the comps to ’01 levels everywhere? Not many at the rate things are currently going.

Anyway, yes I will admit that in hindsight, I regret not buying in ’99 and selling in ’05.

I certainly do not regret not buying since then, renting and saving my money and credit score.

[kewp]

Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money.

How many of these folks you think it will take to lower the comps to ’01 levels everywhere? Not many at the rate things are currently going.

Anyway, yes I will admit that in hindsight, I regret not buying in ’99 and selling in ’05.

I certainly do not regret not buying since then, renting and saving my money and credit score.

[kewp]

Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money.

How many of these folks you think it will take to lower the comps to ’01 levels everywhere? Not many at the rate things are currently going.

Anyway, yes I will admit that in hindsight, I regret not buying in ’99 and selling in ’05.

I certainly do not regret not buying since then, renting and saving my money and credit score.

[kewp]

Again (and I promise, for the last time), that person could if they so desired list that house for below current comps, sell it quick and walk away with a pile of money.

How many of these folks you think it will take to lower the comps to ’01 levels everywhere? Not many at the rate things are currently going.

Anyway, yes I will admit that in hindsight, I regret not buying in ’99 and selling in ’05.

I certainly do not regret not buying since then, renting and saving my money and credit score.

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