Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[peterb]

Timing is everything! Being a prophet 5 years ahead of the event is not very useful as almost everything experiences cyclical variations. If you sold in 2003 because contrarians talked you into the market bursting, you’ve had lost a lot of appreciation. Now everyone is calling for the bottom. Ok, so you buy within 15% of the bottom plus or minus….but what’s more important is when is it going to start rising again? Ask yourself what it will take to cause real estate to start appreciating again??? So we may bottom in 2009 or 1010, how long will we stay there?

[Anonymous]

Why 2000 prices, why not 2001 prices or 1998 prices? The article did not justify why 2000 prices would be at the bottom of this housing downfall. John Mauldin in his newsletter was suggesting that the home price correction happens when the # of homes sold across the country falls to 4 million per year.

Agree that government action is extremely inflationary, and they cannot hold on to lower interest rates for long. Increasing rates can be detrimental at this point.

Employment is the main key and hope that holds up well .

At least the rentals in SD are adjusting upwards, which is a necessary precursor for home prices to adjust. Keep the hopes alive.

Nidhi

[Anonymous]

Why 2000 prices, why not 2001 prices or 1998 prices? The article did not justify why 2000 prices would be at the bottom of this housing downfall. John Mauldin in his newsletter was suggesting that the home price correction happens when the # of homes sold across the country falls to 4 million per year.

Agree that government action is extremely inflationary, and they cannot hold on to lower interest rates for long. Increasing rates can be detrimental at this point.

Employment is the main key and hope that holds up well .

At least the rentals in SD are adjusting upwards, which is a necessary precursor for home prices to adjust. Keep the hopes alive.

Nidhi

[Anonymous]

Why 2000 prices, why not 2001 prices or 1998 prices? The article did not justify why 2000 prices would be at the bottom of this housing downfall. John Mauldin in his newsletter was suggesting that the home price correction happens when the # of homes sold across the country falls to 4 million per year.

Agree that government action is extremely inflationary, and they cannot hold on to lower interest rates for long. Increasing rates can be detrimental at this point.

Employment is the main key and hope that holds up well .

At least the rentals in SD are adjusting upwards, which is a necessary precursor for home prices to adjust. Keep the hopes alive.

Nidhi

[Anonymous]

Why 2000 prices, why not 2001 prices or 1998 prices? The article did not justify why 2000 prices would be at the bottom of this housing downfall. John Mauldin in his newsletter was suggesting that the home price correction happens when the # of homes sold across the country falls to 4 million per year.

Agree that government action is extremely inflationary, and they cannot hold on to lower interest rates for long. Increasing rates can be detrimental at this point.

Employment is the main key and hope that holds up well .

At least the rentals in SD are adjusting upwards, which is a necessary precursor for home prices to adjust. Keep the hopes alive.

Nidhi

[Anonymous]

Why 2000 prices, why not 2001 prices or 1998 prices? The article did not justify why 2000 prices would be at the bottom of this housing downfall. John Mauldin in his newsletter was suggesting that the home price correction happens when the # of homes sold across the country falls to 4 million per year.

Agree that government action is extremely inflationary, and they cannot hold on to lower interest rates for long. Increasing rates can be detrimental at this point.

Employment is the main key and hope that holds up well .

At least the rentals in SD are adjusting upwards, which is a necessary precursor for home prices to adjust. Keep the hopes alive.

Nidhi

[DaCounselor]

“I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.

[DaCounselor]

“I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.

[DaCounselor]

“I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.

[DaCounselor]

“I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.

[DaCounselor]

“I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.

[cr]

[quote=DaCounselor]”I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.
[/quote]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

You only missed out on making money in a speculative bubble, where you had to time the jump in and out properly. If you try to get out now you’d be lucky to get a 2001 price in some areas.

And even if you bought in 2001, didn’t refi and have equity you are going to lose it. There’s nothing to stop prices from falling below 2001 levels.

[cr]

[quote=DaCounselor]”I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.
[/quote]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

You only missed out on making money in a speculative bubble, where you had to time the jump in and out properly. If you try to get out now you’d be lucky to get a 2001 price in some areas.

And even if you bought in 2001, didn’t refi and have equity you are going to lose it. There’s nothing to stop prices from falling below 2001 levels.

[cr]

[quote=DaCounselor]”I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.
[/quote]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

You only missed out on making money in a speculative bubble, where you had to time the jump in and out properly. If you try to get out now you’d be lucky to get a 2001 price in some areas.

And even if you bought in 2001, didn’t refi and have equity you are going to lose it. There’s nothing to stop prices from falling below 2001 levels.

[cr]

[quote=DaCounselor]”I’m from the “being early is being wrong” school. Instead of calling a top in ’01, anyone who bought then is likely to still have a tremendous return on their investment.
________________________

Only if they sold!
________________________

Nope. Most people who are still holding an ’01 purchase are still way up. Like I said in my earlier post, they could probably discount their property today to sell it fast and still be way up. There is really no way around the fact that someone who called the top in ’01 and therefore decided not to buy then has missed out on making a large pile of money.
[/quote]

What I think Kewp means is the equity they may have (assuming they didn’t tap it with a HELOC) is only gained when they sell. Equity is essentially useless unless you’re borrowing against it or selling the asset. (or for bragging rights)

You only missed out on making money in a speculative bubble, where you had to time the jump in and out properly. If you try to get out now you’d be lucky to get a 2001 price in some areas.

And even if you bought in 2001, didn’t refi and have equity you are going to lose it. There’s nothing to stop prices from falling below 2001 levels.

[Author]

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