People still buying at full price

[Anonymous]

More on Carlsbad list prices:

Thanks for the info Amy, very helpful. Your post describes what my wife and I have been running into in this price range, especially within Carlsbad. We had to sell a couple years ago to move to NYC but are now back here due to work transfer. We have been actively looking the last 6 months, but have decided to sit it out for another year or two (at least).

Main reason is I think a fair amount of sellers are stuck trying to get back not only their large debt balances but also the massive upgrades they decided to add (in some cases). To answer your question, we’ve put in sub-list bids on a few homes but have seen a couple of them go into escrow at or near the list price. Both had asking prices well above what the buyer paid 1-2 years ago, so I looked into it a little further as I didn’t understand why (see below).

Some additional color for the blog, if anyone is interested. Hope some will find this helpful:

The Bay Collection (off Poinsettia just east of route 5) is a great example of what I mentioned above. Most of the sellers in there are currently asking considerably more than what they paid new just a couple years ago, arguably right at the peak of the market. Upon closer inspection, there are some pretty sizeable loan balances on these homes, especially the 2nd mortgages, which is pretty scary considering these homes were purchased very recently. The one home we really liked over there was owned by an investor who bought about 10 homes/commercial properties in the last 3 years and apparently now has 8 of them on the market (his realtor obviously didn’t need to disclose this, so my realtor helped us do the research). He was asking 300K more than what he paid and told us an offer near what he initially paid would be way too low, so we walked.

I didn’t show any addresses, but you can see the original (circa 2005) sales price, 1st and 2nd mortgage balances for the homes on the nicest circle in that tract. By the way, this is information that your realtor can and should provide (as many of you may already know)

Original Sale….Mortgage 1….Mortgage 2
——————————————-
1,650,000…1,000,000
1,100,000…..900,000….20,000
1,430,000…1,143,000
1,295,000…1,036,000…130,000
1,549,000…1,000,000…394,000
1,182,000…1,211,000
1,320,000…..680,000
1,199,000…1,220,000
1,407,000…..825,000…200,000
1,250,000…1,000,000…250,000
1,438,000…..986,000
1,000,000…..800,000…150,000
1,139,000…..838,000
1,656,000…1,324,000…165,000
1,191,000…..833,000
1,400,000…1,075,000…200,000
1,258,000…..710,000
1,390,000…..900,000
1,456,000…..975,000…375,000
1,900,000…1,000,000…400,000
1,240,000…1,105,000…240,000
1,265,000…1,000,000…250,000
1,245,000…..934,000
1,360,000…1,280,000…100,000
1,205,000…1,053,000
1,238,000…..980,000…250,000
1,234,000…..987,000…200,000
1,305,000…..700,000
1,435,000…1,000,000…291,000
1,250,000…1,000,000
1,412,000…..980,000
1,409,000…1,120,000
1,378,000…1,250,000
1,762,000…1,000,000…321,000
1,790,000…..870,000
1,351,000…1,201,000

Needless to say, this is fairly indicative of the situation in this price range across many parts of north and northeast county, especially some of the newer construction, at least based on the data I’ve examined. (there will be exceptions of course).

Also, it’s really worth looking at the difference between renting and buying right now. Be sure to factor in property taxes, HOAs, additional utility/maint bills, home depot weekend runs, opportunity cost of capital if the market sits flat-to-down, etc (as many have already pointed out on this site). In most neighborhoods, renting wins hands down, no question.

Sorry for the long post, just thought it might be helpful for anyone on the fence right now, as we were. I’m not an expert by any stretch, but would recommend that buyers do a deep dive on any home they are thinking of purchasing. Would also be great to hear about other folks’ experiences in north county and what they’ve seen in the last year or two.

[Anonymous]

More on Carlsbad list prices:

Thanks for the info Amy, very helpful. Your post describes what my wife and I have been running into in this price range, especially within Carlsbad. We had to sell a couple years ago to move to NYC but are now back here due to work transfer. We have been actively looking the last 6 months, but have decided to sit it out for another year or two (at least).

Main reason is I think a fair amount of sellers are stuck trying to get back not only their large debt balances but also the massive upgrades they decided to add (in some cases). To answer your question, we’ve put in sub-list bids on a few homes but have seen a couple of them go into escrow at or near the list price. Both had asking prices well above what the buyer paid 1-2 years ago, so I looked into it a little further as I didn’t understand why (see below).

Some additional color for the blog, if anyone is interested. Hope some will find this helpful:

The Bay Collection (off Poinsettia just east of route 5) is a great example of what I mentioned above. Most of the sellers in there are currently asking considerably more than what they paid new just a couple years ago, arguably right at the peak of the market. Upon closer inspection, there are some pretty sizeable loan balances on these homes, especially the 2nd mortgages, which is pretty scary considering these homes were purchased very recently. The one home we really liked over there was owned by an investor who bought about 10 homes/commercial properties in the last 3 years and apparently now has 8 of them on the market (his realtor obviously didn’t need to disclose this, so my realtor helped us do the research). He was asking 300K more than what he paid and told us an offer near what he initially paid would be way too low, so we walked.

I didn’t show any addresses, but you can see the original (circa 2005) sales price, 1st and 2nd mortgage balances for the homes on the nicest circle in that tract. By the way, this is information that your realtor can and should provide (as many of you may already know)

Original Sale….Mortgage 1….Mortgage 2
——————————————-
1,650,000…1,000,000
1,100,000…..900,000….20,000
1,430,000…1,143,000
1,295,000…1,036,000…130,000
1,549,000…1,000,000…394,000
1,182,000…1,211,000
1,320,000…..680,000
1,199,000…1,220,000
1,407,000…..825,000…200,000
1,250,000…1,000,000…250,000
1,438,000…..986,000
1,000,000…..800,000…150,000
1,139,000…..838,000
1,656,000…1,324,000…165,000
1,191,000…..833,000
1,400,000…1,075,000…200,000
1,258,000…..710,000
1,390,000…..900,000
1,456,000…..975,000…375,000
1,900,000…1,000,000…400,000
1,240,000…1,105,000…240,000
1,265,000…1,000,000…250,000
1,245,000…..934,000
1,360,000…1,280,000…100,000
1,205,000…1,053,000
1,238,000…..980,000…250,000
1,234,000…..987,000…200,000
1,305,000…..700,000
1,435,000…1,000,000…291,000
1,250,000…1,000,000
1,412,000…..980,000
1,409,000…1,120,000
1,378,000…1,250,000
1,762,000…1,000,000…321,000
1,790,000…..870,000
1,351,000…1,201,000

Needless to say, this is fairly indicative of the situation in this price range across many parts of north and northeast county, especially some of the newer construction, at least based on the data I’ve examined. (there will be exceptions of course).

Also, it’s really worth looking at the difference between renting and buying right now. Be sure to factor in property taxes, HOAs, additional utility/maint bills, home depot weekend runs, opportunity cost of capital if the market sits flat-to-down, etc (as many have already pointed out on this site). In most neighborhoods, renting wins hands down, no question.

Sorry for the long post, just thought it might be helpful for anyone on the fence right now, as we were. I’m not an expert by any stretch, but would recommend that buyers do a deep dive on any home they are thinking of purchasing. Would also be great to hear about other folks’ experiences in north county and what they’ve seen in the last year or two.

[amy]

Dominic, we’ve also been looking at the Bay Collection -mostly the odd-numbered homes on Heron. We’ve found that prices for the most part in this part of Carlsbad are coming down a little, but most sellers just aren’t budging. After reviewing your numbers, it makes sense. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully we will see more movement in this area in 2008. We haven’t submitted any offers yet, but depending on the market, we may start this summer. Eventually, people will have to face reality (at least we hope so!).

[amy]

Dominic, we’ve also been looking at the Bay Collection -mostly the odd-numbered homes on Heron. We’ve found that prices for the most part in this part of Carlsbad are coming down a little, but most sellers just aren’t budging. After reviewing your numbers, it makes sense. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully we will see more movement in this area in 2008. We haven’t submitted any offers yet, but depending on the market, we may start this summer. Eventually, people will have to face reality (at least we hope so!).

[amy]

Dominic, we’ve also been looking at the Bay Collection -mostly the odd-numbered homes on Heron. We’ve found that prices for the most part in this part of Carlsbad are coming down a little, but most sellers just aren’t budging. After reviewing your numbers, it makes sense. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully we will see more movement in this area in 2008. We haven’t submitted any offers yet, but depending on the market, we may start this summer. Eventually, people will have to face reality (at least we hope so!).

[amy]

Dominic, we’ve also been looking at the Bay Collection -mostly the odd-numbered homes on Heron. We’ve found that prices for the most part in this part of Carlsbad are coming down a little, but most sellers just aren’t budging. After reviewing your numbers, it makes sense. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully we will see more movement in this area in 2008. We haven’t submitted any offers yet, but depending on the market, we may start this summer. Eventually, people will have to face reality (at least we hope so!).

[amy]

Dominic, we’ve also been looking at the Bay Collection -mostly the odd-numbered homes on Heron. We’ve found that prices for the most part in this part of Carlsbad are coming down a little, but most sellers just aren’t budging. After reviewing your numbers, it makes sense. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully we will see more movement in this area in 2008. We haven’t submitted any offers yet, but depending on the market, we may start this summer. Eventually, people will have to face reality (at least we hope so!).

[svelte]

I just can’t believe my eyes at those mortgage sizes, Dominic. We make many times over the avg household income in SD county and we would never dream of getting that big a mortgage! Virtually every house has a 700K to 1000K loan!

Those folks must have absolutely enormous salaries or, more likely, they are IO loans. And if so, when do the resets come? Lessee, they moved in during 2005 and 2006….hmmmm…..

[svelte]

I just can’t believe my eyes at those mortgage sizes, Dominic. We make many times over the avg household income in SD county and we would never dream of getting that big a mortgage! Virtually every house has a 700K to 1000K loan!

Those folks must have absolutely enormous salaries or, more likely, they are IO loans. And if so, when do the resets come? Lessee, they moved in during 2005 and 2006….hmmmm…..

[svelte]

I just can’t believe my eyes at those mortgage sizes, Dominic. We make many times over the avg household income in SD county and we would never dream of getting that big a mortgage! Virtually every house has a 700K to 1000K loan!

Those folks must have absolutely enormous salaries or, more likely, they are IO loans. And if so, when do the resets come? Lessee, they moved in during 2005 and 2006….hmmmm…..

[svelte]

I just can’t believe my eyes at those mortgage sizes, Dominic. We make many times over the avg household income in SD county and we would never dream of getting that big a mortgage! Virtually every house has a 700K to 1000K loan!

Those folks must have absolutely enormous salaries or, more likely, they are IO loans. And if so, when do the resets come? Lessee, they moved in during 2005 and 2006….hmmmm…..

[svelte]

I just can’t believe my eyes at those mortgage sizes, Dominic. We make many times over the avg household income in SD county and we would never dream of getting that big a mortgage! Virtually every house has a 700K to 1000K loan!

Those folks must have absolutely enormous salaries or, more likely, they are IO loans. And if so, when do the resets come? Lessee, they moved in during 2005 and 2006….hmmmm…..

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