OT-Going on the record about swine flu

[svelte]

Regarding the thread title: I’ve had my disagreements with flu, but I’d never go so far as to call him swine!!

lol

cheers…

[SK in CV]

[quote=teatsonabull]Hey, Government….how’s that swine flu scare working out for ya? What have there been, like 8 deaths? 😉

Your buddies in Big Pharma sure did sell a lot of vaccine, though, huh? ;-)[/quote]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

Talk with virtually any hospital medical director around the county and they will confirm, the middle of November of ’09 was nervous time. At that time, most every tested flu symptom admission was H1N1, and otherwise healthy people were hitting ICU’s. Practically unheard of for our more common seasonal flus. And a good 3 months earlier than common seasonal flus. This was not your ordinary virus.

Then it went away. Just like researchers don’t fully understand why flus are seasonal, they don’t know why this one hit earlier than most, nor do they know if it will resurface in the spring as it did last year. Or next fall.

The preparation was appropriate, including the fastest development to market vaccine ever. Maybe even perfect. Even though for too many the vaccine arrived late.

[SK in CV]

[quote=teatsonabull]Hey, Government….how’s that swine flu scare working out for ya? What have there been, like 8 deaths? 😉

Your buddies in Big Pharma sure did sell a lot of vaccine, though, huh? ;-)[/quote]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

Talk with virtually any hospital medical director around the county and they will confirm, the middle of November of ’09 was nervous time. At that time, most every tested flu symptom admission was H1N1, and otherwise healthy people were hitting ICU’s. Practically unheard of for our more common seasonal flus. And a good 3 months earlier than common seasonal flus. This was not your ordinary virus.

Then it went away. Just like researchers don’t fully understand why flus are seasonal, they don’t know why this one hit earlier than most, nor do they know if it will resurface in the spring as it did last year. Or next fall.

The preparation was appropriate, including the fastest development to market vaccine ever. Maybe even perfect. Even though for too many the vaccine arrived late.

[SK in CV]

[quote=teatsonabull]Hey, Government….how’s that swine flu scare working out for ya? What have there been, like 8 deaths? 😉

Your buddies in Big Pharma sure did sell a lot of vaccine, though, huh? ;-)[/quote]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

Talk with virtually any hospital medical director around the county and they will confirm, the middle of November of ’09 was nervous time. At that time, most every tested flu symptom admission was H1N1, and otherwise healthy people were hitting ICU’s. Practically unheard of for our more common seasonal flus. And a good 3 months earlier than common seasonal flus. This was not your ordinary virus.

Then it went away. Just like researchers don’t fully understand why flus are seasonal, they don’t know why this one hit earlier than most, nor do they know if it will resurface in the spring as it did last year. Or next fall.

The preparation was appropriate, including the fastest development to market vaccine ever. Maybe even perfect. Even though for too many the vaccine arrived late.

[SK in CV]

[quote=teatsonabull]Hey, Government….how’s that swine flu scare working out for ya? What have there been, like 8 deaths? 😉

Your buddies in Big Pharma sure did sell a lot of vaccine, though, huh? ;-)[/quote]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

Talk with virtually any hospital medical director around the county and they will confirm, the middle of November of ’09 was nervous time. At that time, most every tested flu symptom admission was H1N1, and otherwise healthy people were hitting ICU’s. Practically unheard of for our more common seasonal flus. And a good 3 months earlier than common seasonal flus. This was not your ordinary virus.

Then it went away. Just like researchers don’t fully understand why flus are seasonal, they don’t know why this one hit earlier than most, nor do they know if it will resurface in the spring as it did last year. Or next fall.

The preparation was appropriate, including the fastest development to market vaccine ever. Maybe even perfect. Even though for too many the vaccine arrived late.

[SK in CV]

[quote=teatsonabull]Hey, Government….how’s that swine flu scare working out for ya? What have there been, like 8 deaths? 😉

Your buddies in Big Pharma sure did sell a lot of vaccine, though, huh? ;-)[/quote]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

Talk with virtually any hospital medical director around the county and they will confirm, the middle of November of ’09 was nervous time. At that time, most every tested flu symptom admission was H1N1, and otherwise healthy people were hitting ICU’s. Practically unheard of for our more common seasonal flus. And a good 3 months earlier than common seasonal flus. This was not your ordinary virus.

Then it went away. Just like researchers don’t fully understand why flus are seasonal, they don’t know why this one hit earlier than most, nor do they know if it will resurface in the spring as it did last year. Or next fall.

The preparation was appropriate, including the fastest development to market vaccine ever. Maybe even perfect. Even though for too many the vaccine arrived late.

[ucodegen]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations).
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.

Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.

Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.

This does give me pause to wonder.

Additional ref
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/full/98/5/939

Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.

Buried deeper in the links:
http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/updates/us/index.htm

Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.

[ucodegen]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations).
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.

Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.

Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.

This does give me pause to wonder.

Additional ref
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/full/98/5/939

Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.

Buried deeper in the links:
http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/updates/us/index.htm

Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.

[ucodegen]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations).
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.

Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.

Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.

This does give me pause to wonder.

Additional ref
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/full/98/5/939

Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.

Buried deeper in the links:
http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/updates/us/index.htm

Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.

[ucodegen]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations).
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.

Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.

Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.

This does give me pause to wonder.

Additional ref
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/full/98/5/939

Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.

Buried deeper in the links:
http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/updates/us/index.htm

Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.

[ucodegen]

A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.

The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations).
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.

Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.

Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.

This does give me pause to wonder.

Additional ref
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/full/98/5/939

Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.

Buried deeper in the links:
http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/updates/us/index.htm

Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.

[teatsonabull]

Whether it was 11,000 or 8, it was almost statistically insignificant and probably not any different than “regular” flu strains that come around and NOTHING like the “experts” were predicting.

If this thing was so bad, how come we are not hearing of millions of third-world deaths?

C’mon this was a “wag the dog” shock-and-awe operation from day One. You know it and I know it. What’s next from Big Brother?

[teatsonabull]

Whether it was 11,000 or 8, it was almost statistically insignificant and probably not any different than “regular” flu strains that come around and NOTHING like the “experts” were predicting.

If this thing was so bad, how come we are not hearing of millions of third-world deaths?

C’mon this was a “wag the dog” shock-and-awe operation from day One. You know it and I know it. What’s next from Big Brother?

[teatsonabull]

Whether it was 11,000 or 8, it was almost statistically insignificant and probably not any different than “regular” flu strains that come around and NOTHING like the “experts” were predicting.

If this thing was so bad, how come we are not hearing of millions of third-world deaths?

C’mon this was a “wag the dog” shock-and-awe operation from day One. You know it and I know it. What’s next from Big Brother?

[teatsonabull]

Whether it was 11,000 or 8, it was almost statistically insignificant and probably not any different than “regular” flu strains that come around and NOTHING like the “experts” were predicting.

If this thing was so bad, how come we are not hearing of millions of third-world deaths?

C’mon this was a “wag the dog” shock-and-awe operation from day One. You know it and I know it. What’s next from Big Brother?

[Author]

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