Middle Class Migration Out Of California

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I mean a “middle-class” area close the city center, and relatively closer to the ocean, since “ocean proximity” is frequently a criterion.

Del Cerro is not that nice and definitely cheaper then Hacienda Heights.

I don’t see “cheaper than San Diego.” In fact, I think that San Diego is cheaper for a reason. That’s because San Diego is provincial compared to LA.[/quote]

Agree with all of this. I was only comparing housing styles/stock/era, NOT overall areas. When I think of Hacienda Heights, I tend to think of more spacious one-story homes (and two-stories as well), the type that exist in Del Cerro and Pt Loma Woods.

The middle-class in east LA live in those cities directly north/south of I-10 from San Dimas/Covina/West Covina on into LA and RIV/San Bern counties. The Brea/Pomona/San Gabriel corridor is a little too pricey today for most “middle class” families unless they purchase a larger condo (they do exist), “inherit” a home or move on out to Riv/San Bern Counties.

Yes, SD is relatively cheap (as CA big cities go) for the reason you stated. But I feel much of its more “reasonably-priced” housing stock is dilapidated (termites/dry rot/poor original construction) and many of its lots are substandard. The same is true of much of the housing stock in LA county communities much closer to the ocean. But at least one who does not work in a technology sector can earn a decent living wage in LA County and have a semblance of job security.

[Essbee]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=FlyerInHi]San Gabriel is a big area, I suppose. I have a friend in Hacienda Heights. Her parents paid something like $700k a few years ago. Probably about $900k now.

For comparison, Clairemont Mesa, fairly ocean close and centrally located in San Diego doesn’t compare, value wise.[/quote]

What do you mean by the italicized statement, FIH? Do you think Hacienda Heights RE is a better value for what you get in comparison with Clairemont Mesa (SD)? I do and I also feel it is certainly a much nicer area than Clairemont and would compare its housing stock to Del Cerro or Pt Loma Woods in SD, NOT Clairemont or Mission Village.[/quote]

I have never been to Hacienda Heights and know nothing about it. However, the original poster stated that his friend’s parents bought a house for $700K and that it is now worth $900K. AFAIK, there is nothing that expensive in Clairemont Mesa (SD). Since this is true, how is this even a relevant comparison? Homes in Hacienda Heights ($700-900K) are nicer than homes in Clairemont SD ($500-600K). Yes, one would hope so!

[bearishgurl]

Essbee, he can speak for himself, of course, but I don’t think think FIH was making a direct comparison. I think he just used Clairemont (SD) as a “middle class” example of SD because it was reasonably close-in.

It is so very difficult to compare LA County communities apples to apples to SD County communities because each one offers something another one doesn’t have. I think part of the reason for higher property values the East LA County corridor are generous lot sizes. Another reason that the older stock of homes in SD County (ex: Clairemont) aren’t worth as much as the the older stock of homes in LA County or even close-in bay area counties is that buyers in SD County simply have too much choice. A “middle-class” buyer can easily flock to subdivision after subdivision of new development in the outer rings of SD county and buy a house or townhome in a “master planned community” which was built in the last decade and likely situated on a substandard lot. Why? Because they CAN! There is a large portion of SD County homebuyers who likely never set foot in a house more than 15 years old in their search. Ditto for buyers in San Bern and RIV Counties (new development in Orange and Ventura counties is likely too expensive for a moderate/middle-income homebuyer).

Not true for LA County and at least a dozen other populous counties in CA (esp close-in communities of bay area counties). Moderate, middle and upper middle income buyers who seek a single family home must buy used in these communities if they hope to obtain a home at all. By “used” I mean 30-80 years old. This is so because the leadership of these jurisdictions saw fit to curb development and didn’t pander to Big Development over the past three decades, as the leadership in SD County did. They valued their open space and took seriously their duty and privilege to ensure wise stewardship over it.

This has resulted in the preservation of thousands of fantastic unspoiled views for homeowners and neighborhoods and home values remaining stable … even during the recent downturn. Longtime homeowners often decide to sell and move when they find themselves surrounded by new development and all the traffic and lines that go along with it.

Middle-class buyers in the East LA corridor (and really, almost everywhere in LA County) must buy used, especially if they want to own a single family home south of I-10.

Essbee, IIRC, you grew up in SD County, no? You must admit that it is NOTHING today like the SD County you grew up in… and the tripling++ of its population did not enhance the quality of life for any resident, old or new.

[ltsddd]

[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, I don’t think you’ve been to San Gabriel lately. The area is heavily Chinese now and prices are more than San Diego for comparable inland areas.[/quote]

You are correct – it’s not just San Gabriel but the whole San Gabriel Valley(San Gabriel, San Marino, Rosemead, Monterey Park, etc…) have seen the influx of Asians (not just Chinese) since as early as the 80’s. I am sure some folks on this forum have seen this video:

[Jazzman]

[quote=spdrun]A few points.

(1) Why is international migration a bad thing? More foreign migrants probably start businesses than red-blooded Americans, who tend to want a “full time” job. California and NY have been ports of entry for migration for, oh, the last 100 years or so..

(2) Bigger cities have always been rental markets. Take NYC — most housing in Manhattan was BUILT as rentals, and only subdivided into owned apartments at a later date.

(3) There’s quite a bit of CA that isn’t LA, San Diego, or San Francisco.

(4) Renting out rooms via AirBnB is new. Renting out rooms is nothing new. I knew a elderly Austrian baroness in London who owned a gigantic apartment, and always had 10 or 15 foreign East-bloc students passing through. To some extent she needed the money to upkeep the place, but she also felt she was helping them by giving them cheap(er) housing in a convenient place.

People in cities have also rented out single back rooms for ages to help with the rent. Advertising via word of mouth or on paper.

The newer phenomenon is actually BUYING condos or homes to fully use as AirBnB hotels. Whereas renting out rooms doesn’t affect housing supply, or slightly increases it, renting out entire homes/condos/buildings as “hotels” eats away at supply, driving prices up. I can understand attempts to regulate it.[/quote]

I think LA is, or was about 50% renters. SF is crazy expensive, $900k median …the highest in the country so you might expect more renters. The interesting thing about AirB&B is whether it’s a response to high rents, hotels etc. Yet another indirect spin off from crazy RE. The point about foreign migration is the effect it has on RE prices. Where countries don’t have opportunities for investments (Russia/Asia), the super rich seek out, blindly it seems, other places to park their fortunes. Some countries have put a stop to it because it simply prices out the locals, and I can’t help feel some sympathy for that. If Californians are moving to cheaper states, or countries, then they are very sensible. Someday, maybe, people will wake up to the reality that paying a $1m for little shack surpasses all measures of rational behavior. How long does the elephant need to stand in the room to remind us of how puny our memories are compared to his?

[Jazzman]

[quote=FlyerInHi]

I personally regret not buying anything in the IE (mostly because I don’t really like the area, but business is not about personal like).[/quote]

Well, don’t regret to much. One of the favored adages of investing in RE is don’t buy where you wouldn’t live yourself. Regrets are the flip side of 20:20 vision.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Essbee, IIRC, you grew up in SD County, no? You must admit that it is NOTHING today like the SD County you grew up in… and the tripling++ of its population did not enhance the quality of life for any resident, old or new.[/quote]

I’ve known SD for nearly 30 years. I think SD county is much better now. It used to be boring. It much less boring now, but still boring compared to other big cities.

But the weather is nice and life is overall relaxed in SD.

[UCGal]

[quote=Essbee]
I have never been to Hacienda Heights and know nothing about it. However, the original poster stated that his friend’s parents bought a house for $700K and that it is now worth $900K. AFAIK, there is nothing that expensive in Clairemont Mesa (SD). Since this is true, how is this even a relevant comparison? Homes in Hacienda Heights ($700-900K) are nicer than homes in Clairemont SD ($500-600K). Yes, one would hope so![/quote]

Just to correct this. There were quite a few homes that sold for over $900k in Clairemont (92117) in the past year. A quick redfin search shows this.

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92117/real-estate#!min_price=900000&sold_within_days=365&status=131&v=8&sst=&region_id=38117&region_type=2&market=socal

Most of the higher priced homes had nice views of the bay or ocean… but those views usually came with freeway and train noise. Here’s one that sold for over a million with no ocean view. Others have obstructed views but still sold for a lot.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3110-Denver-St-92117/home/5203493

Clairemont is starting to become a tear-down community – because of the convenient location people are buying, tearing down, and rebuilding showpiece houses. Not everywhere – but on the canyon lots and some of the bay/ocean view lots.

My step-mom sold her place in Clairemont last year… a 1960 era 1500sf house – bay view… but not fixed up at all, small usable portion of the lot (due to hillside), small house, small dated kitchen… she got almost 700k for it.

[flyer]

As a San Diego native, I do think the area does have more to offer now than it did many years ago, but that has come at a price. My wife and I remember when the beaches we love in Del Mar, Torrey Pines and Coronado were relatively “empty,”
traffic was minimal–and the list goes on–so we appreciate the “enchancements” the city has enjoyed, but also fondly remember the past.

As far as San Diego being boring. I can only speak from our experinces, but we’ve visited and lived many other places in the world over the years, and, even though we’ve looked at moving elsewhere, we’ve found there is no place else we’d rather be on a permanent basis–for tons of reasons. We’ve managed to live full and exciting (definitely not “boring”) lives–with San Diego as our home base–so it is definitely possible.

[Author]

Posts