OT: Ebola – Global Pandemic?

[njtosd]

[quote=Aecetia]”The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.”

It seems as though people are always concerned about evolution in terms of mode of transmission. So far, it hasn’t been known to happen.

” We know the virus is mutating. Could it adapt in a way that makes it airborne?

It’s highly unlikely. It would be unusual for a virus to transform in a way that changes its mode of infection. Of the 23 known viruses that cause serious disease in man, none are known to have mutated in ways that changed how they infect humans. Of course, we only know about a small portion of the existing viruses.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2014/09/03/can-ebola-go-airborne/

[njtosd]

[quote=zk][quote=Aecetia]”The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.”

A lame and disappointing article. Just another fear monger with incomplete and incorrect information. He’s afraid that ebola could go airborne. But no human virus has ever changed its mode of transmission:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/scientists-say-ebolas-transmission-route-unlikely-to-have-changed-1413475957

And the Canadian researchers did not prove that ebola “could be transmitted by the respiratory route from pigs to monkeys.”

http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-ebola-goes-airborne-112112

Nevermind the sensational title of the above link. Read the article.[/quote]

I agree with you in large part, however, we do not have perfect information with respect to viruses in terms of their history of changing or not changing modes of infection. Since all viruses presumably evolved from a single virus, we should probably assume that such a change has taken place – but over millenia, not in a few years.

[zk]

[quote=njtosd]

I agree with you in large part, however, we do not have perfect information with respect to viruses in terms of their history of changing or not changing modes of infection. Since all viruses presumably evolved from a single virus, we should probably assume that such a change has taken place – but over millenia, not in a few years.[/quote]

We don’t have perfect information on the history of viruses, no. But even if all viruses evolved from a single virus, that doesn’t necessarily mean that any virus has ever changed its mode of transmission among mammals. Mammals have been around for a couple hundred million years; viruses have been around a lot longer. Maybe they have changed method of transmission at some point over those two hundred million years. Maybe not. Humans have only been around a couple hundred thousand or a couple million years, depending on how you define them. There’s a good chance no virus has ever changed its method of transmission among humans.

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