One word: OIL

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: No disagreement whatsoever. But the analysis component is key. I’ll take my chances as an accountant over a day trader any day of the week, especially since, as an investor, I’m not investing a significant portion of my portfolio in commodities.

I’m a big fan of Ben Graham’s and hew closely to his notion of spending the time and doing your homework (the analysis you mentioned). Yep, I agree that such a strategy isn’t foolproof, but over the long run it yields far better results for far longer than jumping from market to market and employing a strategy that is nothing more than thinly disguised gambling.

If I have to pick between Buffett (a devotee of Graham’s) and Jim Cramer, well, that’s an easy one.

[DaCounselor]

Good points Allan. Look at my situation – I openly admit that I “trade” with a small portion of my portfolio, and have done so for 25 years, because I enjoy the process. I’m not investing, I’m trading – big difference. I’m prepared to take losses and I also celebrate big wins. It is of course akin to gambling. Now I enjoy going to Vegas 2-3 times a year, but the stuff you can do in the market is much more fun for me. In a sense, it’s entertainment. So I guess losses are an “entertainment expense”. That’s what we call our Vegas beatings. We also refer to them as “buying a thousand dollar beer.”

I have had some statistically amazing runs, both trading and in Vegas, and when you get on an extended run the thought can creep into your mind that “hey, I can make a living at this – i can play blackjack and craps for a LIVING!” But sooner or later the House asserts itself and it all comes crashing down and you learn who the boss is, and it ain’t you. Same thing with trading. And trust me, I have also suffered with some statistically amazing cold streaks as well.

The other thing about both trading and gambling is that you always seem to hear alot about someone’s great winning streak but not so much about the times they get blown up. Anyway, I am huge skeptic of anyone being able to, as they say, “beat the market” over the long haul, in the same way I am skeptical that anyone can “beat the House” in Vegas over the long haul. Those that try should be prepared to incur an “entertainment expense.”

[DaCounselor]

Good points Allan. Look at my situation – I openly admit that I “trade” with a small portion of my portfolio, and have done so for 25 years, because I enjoy the process. I’m not investing, I’m trading – big difference. I’m prepared to take losses and I also celebrate big wins. It is of course akin to gambling. Now I enjoy going to Vegas 2-3 times a year, but the stuff you can do in the market is much more fun for me. In a sense, it’s entertainment. So I guess losses are an “entertainment expense”. That’s what we call our Vegas beatings. We also refer to them as “buying a thousand dollar beer.”

I have had some statistically amazing runs, both trading and in Vegas, and when you get on an extended run the thought can creep into your mind that “hey, I can make a living at this – i can play blackjack and craps for a LIVING!” But sooner or later the House asserts itself and it all comes crashing down and you learn who the boss is, and it ain’t you. Same thing with trading. And trust me, I have also suffered with some statistically amazing cold streaks as well.

The other thing about both trading and gambling is that you always seem to hear alot about someone’s great winning streak but not so much about the times they get blown up. Anyway, I am huge skeptic of anyone being able to, as they say, “beat the market” over the long haul, in the same way I am skeptical that anyone can “beat the House” in Vegas over the long haul. Those that try should be prepared to incur an “entertainment expense.”

[DaCounselor]

Good points Allan. Look at my situation – I openly admit that I “trade” with a small portion of my portfolio, and have done so for 25 years, because I enjoy the process. I’m not investing, I’m trading – big difference. I’m prepared to take losses and I also celebrate big wins. It is of course akin to gambling. Now I enjoy going to Vegas 2-3 times a year, but the stuff you can do in the market is much more fun for me. In a sense, it’s entertainment. So I guess losses are an “entertainment expense”. That’s what we call our Vegas beatings. We also refer to them as “buying a thousand dollar beer.”

I have had some statistically amazing runs, both trading and in Vegas, and when you get on an extended run the thought can creep into your mind that “hey, I can make a living at this – i can play blackjack and craps for a LIVING!” But sooner or later the House asserts itself and it all comes crashing down and you learn who the boss is, and it ain’t you. Same thing with trading. And trust me, I have also suffered with some statistically amazing cold streaks as well.

The other thing about both trading and gambling is that you always seem to hear alot about someone’s great winning streak but not so much about the times they get blown up. Anyway, I am huge skeptic of anyone being able to, as they say, “beat the market” over the long haul, in the same way I am skeptical that anyone can “beat the House” in Vegas over the long haul. Those that try should be prepared to incur an “entertainment expense.”

[DaCounselor]

Good points Allan. Look at my situation – I openly admit that I “trade” with a small portion of my portfolio, and have done so for 25 years, because I enjoy the process. I’m not investing, I’m trading – big difference. I’m prepared to take losses and I also celebrate big wins. It is of course akin to gambling. Now I enjoy going to Vegas 2-3 times a year, but the stuff you can do in the market is much more fun for me. In a sense, it’s entertainment. So I guess losses are an “entertainment expense”. That’s what we call our Vegas beatings. We also refer to them as “buying a thousand dollar beer.”

I have had some statistically amazing runs, both trading and in Vegas, and when you get on an extended run the thought can creep into your mind that “hey, I can make a living at this – i can play blackjack and craps for a LIVING!” But sooner or later the House asserts itself and it all comes crashing down and you learn who the boss is, and it ain’t you. Same thing with trading. And trust me, I have also suffered with some statistically amazing cold streaks as well.

The other thing about both trading and gambling is that you always seem to hear alot about someone’s great winning streak but not so much about the times they get blown up. Anyway, I am huge skeptic of anyone being able to, as they say, “beat the market” over the long haul, in the same way I am skeptical that anyone can “beat the House” in Vegas over the long haul. Those that try should be prepared to incur an “entertainment expense.”

[DaCounselor]

Good points Allan. Look at my situation – I openly admit that I “trade” with a small portion of my portfolio, and have done so for 25 years, because I enjoy the process. I’m not investing, I’m trading – big difference. I’m prepared to take losses and I also celebrate big wins. It is of course akin to gambling. Now I enjoy going to Vegas 2-3 times a year, but the stuff you can do in the market is much more fun for me. In a sense, it’s entertainment. So I guess losses are an “entertainment expense”. That’s what we call our Vegas beatings. We also refer to them as “buying a thousand dollar beer.”

I have had some statistically amazing runs, both trading and in Vegas, and when you get on an extended run the thought can creep into your mind that “hey, I can make a living at this – i can play blackjack and craps for a LIVING!” But sooner or later the House asserts itself and it all comes crashing down and you learn who the boss is, and it ain’t you. Same thing with trading. And trust me, I have also suffered with some statistically amazing cold streaks as well.

The other thing about both trading and gambling is that you always seem to hear alot about someone’s great winning streak but not so much about the times they get blown up. Anyway, I am huge skeptic of anyone being able to, as they say, “beat the market” over the long haul, in the same way I am skeptical that anyone can “beat the House” in Vegas over the long haul. Those that try should be prepared to incur an “entertainment expense.”

[Allan from Fallbrook]

DaCounselor: I agree that trading and gambling are a helluva lot more fun than investing. Investing takes work!

When I handled that corporate portfolio, approx. 10% was for speculative investments, including CBOT-type stuff (futures, derivatives, etc). The point you make about having a hot streak (and/or a cold one) is very true. I went on a run trading futures (with Florida orange futures, of all things) that was amazing. I was up somewhere around 300% and started thinking I was some kind of financial genius when, as you say, the House asserted itself and promptly kicked my ass earthward again. Great lesson and one I refer to constantly when making financial decisions.

It’s amusing to listen to some self-described “expert” go on and on about gaming the system. The system will eventually eat your lunch, especially if you’re nothing more than a glorified dilettante day trader. And you’re absolutely right about that “entertainment expense”. It can often cost more than your entire portfolio.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

DaCounselor: I agree that trading and gambling are a helluva lot more fun than investing. Investing takes work!

When I handled that corporate portfolio, approx. 10% was for speculative investments, including CBOT-type stuff (futures, derivatives, etc). The point you make about having a hot streak (and/or a cold one) is very true. I went on a run trading futures (with Florida orange futures, of all things) that was amazing. I was up somewhere around 300% and started thinking I was some kind of financial genius when, as you say, the House asserted itself and promptly kicked my ass earthward again. Great lesson and one I refer to constantly when making financial decisions.

It’s amusing to listen to some self-described “expert” go on and on about gaming the system. The system will eventually eat your lunch, especially if you’re nothing more than a glorified dilettante day trader. And you’re absolutely right about that “entertainment expense”. It can often cost more than your entire portfolio.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

DaCounselor: I agree that trading and gambling are a helluva lot more fun than investing. Investing takes work!

When I handled that corporate portfolio, approx. 10% was for speculative investments, including CBOT-type stuff (futures, derivatives, etc). The point you make about having a hot streak (and/or a cold one) is very true. I went on a run trading futures (with Florida orange futures, of all things) that was amazing. I was up somewhere around 300% and started thinking I was some kind of financial genius when, as you say, the House asserted itself and promptly kicked my ass earthward again. Great lesson and one I refer to constantly when making financial decisions.

It’s amusing to listen to some self-described “expert” go on and on about gaming the system. The system will eventually eat your lunch, especially if you’re nothing more than a glorified dilettante day trader. And you’re absolutely right about that “entertainment expense”. It can often cost more than your entire portfolio.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

DaCounselor: I agree that trading and gambling are a helluva lot more fun than investing. Investing takes work!

When I handled that corporate portfolio, approx. 10% was for speculative investments, including CBOT-type stuff (futures, derivatives, etc). The point you make about having a hot streak (and/or a cold one) is very true. I went on a run trading futures (with Florida orange futures, of all things) that was amazing. I was up somewhere around 300% and started thinking I was some kind of financial genius when, as you say, the House asserted itself and promptly kicked my ass earthward again. Great lesson and one I refer to constantly when making financial decisions.

It’s amusing to listen to some self-described “expert” go on and on about gaming the system. The system will eventually eat your lunch, especially if you’re nothing more than a glorified dilettante day trader. And you’re absolutely right about that “entertainment expense”. It can often cost more than your entire portfolio.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

DaCounselor: I agree that trading and gambling are a helluva lot more fun than investing. Investing takes work!

When I handled that corporate portfolio, approx. 10% was for speculative investments, including CBOT-type stuff (futures, derivatives, etc). The point you make about having a hot streak (and/or a cold one) is very true. I went on a run trading futures (with Florida orange futures, of all things) that was amazing. I was up somewhere around 300% and started thinking I was some kind of financial genius when, as you say, the House asserted itself and promptly kicked my ass earthward again. Great lesson and one I refer to constantly when making financial decisions.

It’s amusing to listen to some self-described “expert” go on and on about gaming the system. The system will eventually eat your lunch, especially if you’re nothing more than a glorified dilettante day trader. And you’re absolutely right about that “entertainment expense”. It can often cost more than your entire portfolio.

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