One observation on CV inventory

[SD Realtor]

Newcomer the ratio for attached homes are 83 actives to 32 pendings. Now that may be thought of as really bad… however I think it will get worse as the summer wears on.

SD Realtor

[unbiasedobserver]

I’m in an older attached CV community (built around 1990 when they still put in open areas, grass, streets are wide, much nicer than the newer scrunched up developments IMO). Anyway my observation is people are hunkering down for nuclear winter, just waiting for the good old days of 2005 to return. Most of the owners bought in the 90’s for $180K-$250K, yet they seem to feel entitled to $500K-$600K and they won’t sell until they can get it. Last fall (2007) there were about 6 units on the market, now there are none. Only 1 sold, and guess what, that was the lowest price, what a shock. In the past week I’ve heard 2 different people who I don’t believe know each other say that they each have “a friend” who wants to buy their unit for $5xx,xxx when they decide to sell (which I find extremely suspect since the last sale was mid 400’s). Anyway I’m surprised with the stability, no one apparently has to move for job, divorce, death, or whatever.

[unbiasedobserver]

I’m in an older attached CV community (built around 1990 when they still put in open areas, grass, streets are wide, much nicer than the newer scrunched up developments IMO). Anyway my observation is people are hunkering down for nuclear winter, just waiting for the good old days of 2005 to return. Most of the owners bought in the 90’s for $180K-$250K, yet they seem to feel entitled to $500K-$600K and they won’t sell until they can get it. Last fall (2007) there were about 6 units on the market, now there are none. Only 1 sold, and guess what, that was the lowest price, what a shock. In the past week I’ve heard 2 different people who I don’t believe know each other say that they each have “a friend” who wants to buy their unit for $5xx,xxx when they decide to sell (which I find extremely suspect since the last sale was mid 400’s). Anyway I’m surprised with the stability, no one apparently has to move for job, divorce, death, or whatever.

[unbiasedobserver]

I’m in an older attached CV community (built around 1990 when they still put in open areas, grass, streets are wide, much nicer than the newer scrunched up developments IMO). Anyway my observation is people are hunkering down for nuclear winter, just waiting for the good old days of 2005 to return. Most of the owners bought in the 90’s for $180K-$250K, yet they seem to feel entitled to $500K-$600K and they won’t sell until they can get it. Last fall (2007) there were about 6 units on the market, now there are none. Only 1 sold, and guess what, that was the lowest price, what a shock. In the past week I’ve heard 2 different people who I don’t believe know each other say that they each have “a friend” who wants to buy their unit for $5xx,xxx when they decide to sell (which I find extremely suspect since the last sale was mid 400’s). Anyway I’m surprised with the stability, no one apparently has to move for job, divorce, death, or whatever.

[unbiasedobserver]

I’m in an older attached CV community (built around 1990 when they still put in open areas, grass, streets are wide, much nicer than the newer scrunched up developments IMO). Anyway my observation is people are hunkering down for nuclear winter, just waiting for the good old days of 2005 to return. Most of the owners bought in the 90’s for $180K-$250K, yet they seem to feel entitled to $500K-$600K and they won’t sell until they can get it. Last fall (2007) there were about 6 units on the market, now there are none. Only 1 sold, and guess what, that was the lowest price, what a shock. In the past week I’ve heard 2 different people who I don’t believe know each other say that they each have “a friend” who wants to buy their unit for $5xx,xxx when they decide to sell (which I find extremely suspect since the last sale was mid 400’s). Anyway I’m surprised with the stability, no one apparently has to move for job, divorce, death, or whatever.

[unbiasedobserver]

I’m in an older attached CV community (built around 1990 when they still put in open areas, grass, streets are wide, much nicer than the newer scrunched up developments IMO). Anyway my observation is people are hunkering down for nuclear winter, just waiting for the good old days of 2005 to return. Most of the owners bought in the 90’s for $180K-$250K, yet they seem to feel entitled to $500K-$600K and they won’t sell until they can get it. Last fall (2007) there were about 6 units on the market, now there are none. Only 1 sold, and guess what, that was the lowest price, what a shock. In the past week I’ve heard 2 different people who I don’t believe know each other say that they each have “a friend” who wants to buy their unit for $5xx,xxx when they decide to sell (which I find extremely suspect since the last sale was mid 400’s). Anyway I’m surprised with the stability, no one apparently has to move for job, divorce, death, or whatever.

[sdnerd]

I’m curious as to which general areas your frustrated clients are looking?

I’ve been passively watching many of the areas just north of the 56 for a while now, everything from CV to RB West. Prices are still strong, and new developments are still selling like hot cakes. But there is some downward movement.

The # of homes listed in the high 600, 700, and low 800s have definitely increased IMHO. There are a lot of places that were listing in the 900’s now in the high 700’s. Many of these are within the 2,500 to 3,100sqft range. A fair number are now in the ~5-6% annual appreciation range from 1999.

The area near the new Intuit complex appears to be getting hit pretty hard. Not too surprising since those were all built around 2003/2004 I believe.

For me personally, $700-750k is the sweet spot. What’s concerning though however, is at that price the demand starts to get significantly higher from what I’ve seen on boards like this, and from conversations with friends. CV, Encinitas, etc – I think that price range would bring in a fair number of buyers.

It’ll be curious to see the landscape towards the end of this year. Once prices start getting within 10-15% of “target price”; the rent/waiting time starts to become a big factor. If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.

[sdnerd]

I’m curious as to which general areas your frustrated clients are looking?

I’ve been passively watching many of the areas just north of the 56 for a while now, everything from CV to RB West. Prices are still strong, and new developments are still selling like hot cakes. But there is some downward movement.

The # of homes listed in the high 600, 700, and low 800s have definitely increased IMHO. There are a lot of places that were listing in the 900’s now in the high 700’s. Many of these are within the 2,500 to 3,100sqft range. A fair number are now in the ~5-6% annual appreciation range from 1999.

The area near the new Intuit complex appears to be getting hit pretty hard. Not too surprising since those were all built around 2003/2004 I believe.

For me personally, $700-750k is the sweet spot. What’s concerning though however, is at that price the demand starts to get significantly higher from what I’ve seen on boards like this, and from conversations with friends. CV, Encinitas, etc – I think that price range would bring in a fair number of buyers.

It’ll be curious to see the landscape towards the end of this year. Once prices start getting within 10-15% of “target price”; the rent/waiting time starts to become a big factor. If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.

[sdnerd]

I’m curious as to which general areas your frustrated clients are looking?

I’ve been passively watching many of the areas just north of the 56 for a while now, everything from CV to RB West. Prices are still strong, and new developments are still selling like hot cakes. But there is some downward movement.

The # of homes listed in the high 600, 700, and low 800s have definitely increased IMHO. There are a lot of places that were listing in the 900’s now in the high 700’s. Many of these are within the 2,500 to 3,100sqft range. A fair number are now in the ~5-6% annual appreciation range from 1999.

The area near the new Intuit complex appears to be getting hit pretty hard. Not too surprising since those were all built around 2003/2004 I believe.

For me personally, $700-750k is the sweet spot. What’s concerning though however, is at that price the demand starts to get significantly higher from what I’ve seen on boards like this, and from conversations with friends. CV, Encinitas, etc – I think that price range would bring in a fair number of buyers.

It’ll be curious to see the landscape towards the end of this year. Once prices start getting within 10-15% of “target price”; the rent/waiting time starts to become a big factor. If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.

[sdnerd]

I’m curious as to which general areas your frustrated clients are looking?

I’ve been passively watching many of the areas just north of the 56 for a while now, everything from CV to RB West. Prices are still strong, and new developments are still selling like hot cakes. But there is some downward movement.

The # of homes listed in the high 600, 700, and low 800s have definitely increased IMHO. There are a lot of places that were listing in the 900’s now in the high 700’s. Many of these are within the 2,500 to 3,100sqft range. A fair number are now in the ~5-6% annual appreciation range from 1999.

The area near the new Intuit complex appears to be getting hit pretty hard. Not too surprising since those were all built around 2003/2004 I believe.

For me personally, $700-750k is the sweet spot. What’s concerning though however, is at that price the demand starts to get significantly higher from what I’ve seen on boards like this, and from conversations with friends. CV, Encinitas, etc – I think that price range would bring in a fair number of buyers.

It’ll be curious to see the landscape towards the end of this year. Once prices start getting within 10-15% of “target price”; the rent/waiting time starts to become a big factor. If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.

[sdnerd]

I’m curious as to which general areas your frustrated clients are looking?

I’ve been passively watching many of the areas just north of the 56 for a while now, everything from CV to RB West. Prices are still strong, and new developments are still selling like hot cakes. But there is some downward movement.

The # of homes listed in the high 600, 700, and low 800s have definitely increased IMHO. There are a lot of places that were listing in the 900’s now in the high 700’s. Many of these are within the 2,500 to 3,100sqft range. A fair number are now in the ~5-6% annual appreciation range from 1999.

The area near the new Intuit complex appears to be getting hit pretty hard. Not too surprising since those were all built around 2003/2004 I believe.

For me personally, $700-750k is the sweet spot. What’s concerning though however, is at that price the demand starts to get significantly higher from what I’ve seen on boards like this, and from conversations with friends. CV, Encinitas, etc – I think that price range would bring in a fair number of buyers.

It’ll be curious to see the landscape towards the end of this year. Once prices start getting within 10-15% of “target price”; the rent/waiting time starts to become a big factor. If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.

[patientlywaiting]

“If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.”

It’s not like you won’t paid that or much more to use the bank’s money to buy. But I see your point…. People think up whatever to justify a purchase.

Talking about justifications, I know someone who bought a time share for 1 week per year. With HOA and taxes it works out to $150/day (not including purchase price). The resorts you can exchange for are not in the most desirable areas and you can bid on Priceline or book on Expedia for less. His justifications:

1) That gets him and his wife out of house — forced vacation every year.
2) The time share condos you can book have kitchens so you can cook and save money while on vacation.

I’d rather book a hotel room wherever I want and eat out. I would pay the same price and not have to lift a finger.

[patientlywaiting]

“If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.”

It’s not like you won’t paid that or much more to use the bank’s money to buy. But I see your point…. People think up whatever to justify a purchase.

Talking about justifications, I know someone who bought a time share for 1 week per year. With HOA and taxes it works out to $150/day (not including purchase price). The resorts you can exchange for are not in the most desirable areas and you can bid on Priceline or book on Expedia for less. His justifications:

1) That gets him and his wife out of house — forced vacation every year.
2) The time share condos you can book have kitchens so you can cook and save money while on vacation.

I’d rather book a hotel room wherever I want and eat out. I would pay the same price and not have to lift a finger.

[patientlywaiting]

“If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.”

It’s not like you won’t paid that or much more to use the bank’s money to buy. But I see your point…. People think up whatever to justify a purchase.

Talking about justifications, I know someone who bought a time share for 1 week per year. With HOA and taxes it works out to $150/day (not including purchase price). The resorts you can exchange for are not in the most desirable areas and you can bid on Priceline or book on Expedia for less. His justifications:

1) That gets him and his wife out of house — forced vacation every year.
2) The time share condos you can book have kitchens so you can cook and save money while on vacation.

I’d rather book a hotel room wherever I want and eat out. I would pay the same price and not have to lift a finger.

[patientlywaiting]

“If your clients are spending $30k a year renting; waiting for another $50k price drop becomes a factor for consideration.”

It’s not like you won’t paid that or much more to use the bank’s money to buy. But I see your point…. People think up whatever to justify a purchase.

Talking about justifications, I know someone who bought a time share for 1 week per year. With HOA and taxes it works out to $150/day (not including purchase price). The resorts you can exchange for are not in the most desirable areas and you can bid on Priceline or book on Expedia for less. His justifications:

1) That gets him and his wife out of house — forced vacation every year.
2) The time share condos you can book have kitchens so you can cook and save money while on vacation.

I’d rather book a hotel room wherever I want and eat out. I would pay the same price and not have to lift a finger.

[Author]

Posts