NY Times..”A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent “

[waiting hawk]

“It’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move. In much of the country, including large parts of the Northeast, California, Florida and the Southwest, recent home buyers have faced higher monthly costs than renters and have lost money on their investment in the meantime. It’s almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters.”

I win I win 🙂

[Critter]

We all win – well, most of us on this board anyway. While prices are dropping our down payments are growing. It doesn’t get much better than that!

[Alex_angel]

For the last few years I have had a nesting feeling but continued to rent. I felt guilty not buying a home but now I can reflect back and know I did the right thing and I am not stuck in this slump. I have the option to leave SD if I want or stick around and watch home prices drop more before buying. It feels good to be in the drivers seat.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

The last four years I have paid roughly 100K dollars in rent for a clean, decent house in a good neighborhood in a great school district.

Had I purchased this house for it’s peak comparable price within the neighborhood, I would be underwater at least 100K dollars today. Beyond that, I would have paid roughly 100-150K in PITI for the pleasure of “ownership”.

Four years of “free rent” wasn’t all too shabby a move, now, was it?

[PD]

It is nice to have the following:
No home value depreciation eating away at our net worth
Less monthly cost (rent vs mortgage)
Previous home equity now making money in other investments
win, win, win 🙂

BTW, I know someone who is about to buy for the first time in a fringe area in CA. They are streeeeeetching for the purchase, their financial situation is bad, they are only going to be there a couple of years before they will be forced to transfer and they know they will not be able to afford the difference between ownership costs and what they can get for rent for the property. They don’t want to “throw their money away by renting anymore.” Sigh…. It is hard to watch people you know giddily throw themselves off a cliff without a parachute while yelling, “It’s going to be a soft landing!”

I passed along my opinion and it was thrown out with the garbage.

[Critter]

Hey PD,

I also have a friend who just pulled the trigger – in Clairemont. I gave him the gentle approach re: advice but he and his partner still chose to buy. There are a few people who just needed the nudge of a little price drop to convince themselves “now is the right time.”

Worse, they just moved here from out of state, so they really have no clue about neighborhoods. I am still aghast. They could have easily rented while they “tested the waters” of neighborhoods and then saved themselves the indignity of future falling prices.

He was incommunicado for the past month while escrow closed…

[cashman]

I hate to be a party pooper, but renting has not worked in my favor, yet. I sold my home in Nov.’05 for $1,988,000 at what I believed to be the “peak” back then. I was so happy for the first few months, thinking how smart I was. I was wrong. I kept checking the market from time to time, and to my amazement, property values kept going up in my neighborhood. In fact, only in Feb. of this year did prices start a mild turnarond. My home is worth about $600K more now than when I sold it. I just don’t understand it. My realtor say’s “I told you so”, and continues to boast strong sales in my neighborhood. So not only have I lost $600K in continued appreciation, but my rent for the past year and a half totals almost $50K (at $2700/mo.) So for me it wasn’t such a good deal.

[Anonymous]

Cahsman are you a friggin idiot!? You were lucky enough to sell at right about the peak of the market, and cashed out 2Mil and you are complaining? This must be a joke right?.. Of course you didn’t say how much you paid for your house, maybe you overpaid in the first place?

[JJGittes]

Cashman,

Wow, really interesting. I like your honesty. A lot of people’s pride would prevent them from making your posting. Can you reveal what area of the county your house was in? What’s your plan now?
(And no, I don’t think you are an “idiot” or that you are joking. In 92009 and 92011 right now, for instance, for sale inventory is very low in areas in the Carlsbad and Encinitas school districts. Much has gone pending recently. If inventory does not start rising soon, I could easily envision a bit of a rally this spring/summer. Long term, who knows, but the sky is not falling now in these areas…)

[waiting hawk]

Post any house in the country that went up from Nov. 2005 600k. PLEASE!

[sdrealtor]

My guess would be Del Mar west of the 5 with an ocean view. Good luck finding a nice house with a real ocean view under $2m there these days. Its hard enough to find one at any price.

[Anonymous]

Also NY times. Kinda interesting to plug in values.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1

-virtual

[cashman]

Yes, it’s true, here’s the link:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=21661162
You can also check the price data to see that I was the original owner, bought in 1994 for $1.4M. I thought I got a great deal at the time. The builder was asking $1.8M. As the market was soft, and it was sitting vacant for six months, the builder was very negotiable. Due to divorce, I put it on the market in 2001 for $1.2M and couldn’t sell it. It was listed for over a year. I kept it until 11/2005, when I finally did sell it for just shy of $2M. I didn’t think I was an “idiot” then, but after missing out on another $600K, I guess I was an idiot! And like I said previously, I’ve spent another $50K on rent!

[RottedOak]

Just because Zillow indicates a particular value does not mean that you could actually sell for that price. Zillow is using automation to come up with an estimate. Real buyers often feel differently about the value. The buyers for high end homes ($2M is atypical even for LA) are much fewer than for “regular” price ranges, and each home tends to be unique. As a result, these homes often sit on the market for a long time even during a boom waiting for a buyer who can afford the home and likes it. If you waited another six months and asked for the extra $600K, you might have still been sitting on the listing as prices turned down.

BTW, for those who didn’t look at the info, this home is in LA, not anywhere in San Diego county.

[calidesigner]

I have to second a previous opinion about Zillow not necessarily reflecting what the house may actually fetch. Moreover, I can bet that cashman’s former house is in a huge gated countryside community called “The Country”, in Diamond Bar, in the eastern part of LA County. Having lived in more humble accomodations in Diamond Bar during the 90’s (i.e. townhome), I know firsthand that homes in “The Country” are the most expensive that you’ll find at the outer edge of LA County, moreover not really in the same class as the rest of the millions of properties in the Greater LA/San Diego area. They are in a class of their own, so once again not a canary in the coalmine for housing in general. Having said that, I’ll bet drops in sales prices in this community as well, because I knew and still remember a realtor friend in 1991-1992 who told me firsthand the trouble she and her agency was having selling homes in “The Country” gated communtiy during ’91 and ’92.

We can beffudle ourselves as much as we want folks, but we can’t deny history. Cashman, I’d be interested to know how home prices in “The Country” fared between 1990 and 1994. I think you’d be surprised. Perhaps you might want to track and see if your former property actually sells for $600k more than what you got, I doubt it. But it would be interesting nonetheless.

calidesigner

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