Total taxes collected and the current market value of real estate are only loosely correlated.
Suppose someone bought a house in Clairemont for $200K in 2000 – and a property tax rate of about 1% of value, or around $2K per year. Assessment can only go up 2% per year due to Prop 13.
The oringal buyer holds the property through the peak in 2005 when it could have sold for, say, $500,000. But the Prop 13 tax they actually are assessed and pay is closer to (1.02)^5 * $2K or about $2,420. (Way less than 1% of 2005 market value).
The owner then realizes that values are only going down and decides to sell in 2007. They sell it for $400K – 20% less than peak value – and the new buyer is assessed 1% of the purchase price or about $4,000 NEARLY TWICE the tax the original buyer would have otherwise paid.
This give the county a net increase in tax on the property of around $1,600, even though the market value continues to drop. This is how total tax collected keeps going up even as valuations drop like a rock.
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