[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]
I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.
[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]
Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.
[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]
I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.
[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]
Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.
[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]
It’s already much higher…
And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.
