- This topic has 55 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 1 month ago by
jstoesz.
-
AuthorPosts
-
March 13, 2012 at 5:59 PM #739913March 13, 2012 at 6:31 PM #739914
Anonymous
Guest[quote=no_such_reality][quote=pri_dk]
http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/annual_values/by_area/301?tab=pricesMilk price in 1995: $2.50
Milk price in 2011: $3.60Annual rate of change: 2.3%[/quote]
National averages for foodstuffs is a bad measure.[Inflation data showing 11% for one product for a single year in one region.][/quote]
CPI is a national average. Inflation data is generally only useful if there is a trend across a broad range of goods. Of course if you pick and choose your data to the extreme you can prove anything you want.
My post was a specific response to someone’s claim that milk prices show evidence of high inflation since the “late 90s.” The data clearly shows the price of milk is actually evidence of low inflation over the past 15 years or so.
The main point is that anecdotal evidence of inflation is absolutely useless. We all remember the good ‘ol days when prices were low. But many of us, including me, sometimes forget just how long ago those days were.
March 13, 2012 at 6:37 PM #739915ocrenter
Participant[quote=briansd1]
I agree, there are ways to cope with inflation. One of those ways it to consume less, and switch to less expensive products.
How about the Costco powder detergent? I use that and it takes me like 2 years to finish the whole bucket. Personally, I don’t like the fragrance in detergent, and I don’t use fabric softener.[/quote]
Hey, buying 5 containers will help you fight detergent inflation for a decade!
March 13, 2012 at 6:53 PM #739917bubba99
Participantshadowstats.com has some interesting articles on inflation and the risk of hyper-inflation. You can view the basic charts and papers without a subscription. Shadowstats is showing inflation averaging over 6%/year for the last 5 years (calculated with the formula used up until 1990) Much closer to what most of us see in real world prices.
The section “Primers on Government Economic Reports” lets you drive down to CPI for an analysis of what is really happening and why it is so different than headline CPI.
March 13, 2012 at 7:16 PM #739918an
Participant[quote=pri_dk][quote=AN][quote=pri_dk][quote=AN]Here’s another data point. In 1998 a gallon of regular gas was ~$1. Today, that same gallon is ~$4.[/quote]
Pro tip: If you destroy one of the top oil-producing nations, it may have an effect on gas prices.[/quote]
How do you explain the price of Milk then? IIRC, milk was around $1 in late 90s and now, they’re mid $3.[/quote]http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/annual_values/by_area/301?tab=prices
Milk price in 1995: $2.50
Milk price in 2011: $3.60Annual rate of change: 2.3%[/quote]
Thanks for the link. Good site for data. I guess my memory served me wrong on that one. I guess data proves it, there’s no real food inflation, at least no more than your standard inflation rate.So, now that we’re out of Iraq, oil price should drop, right? We can use $2/gal right about now. It was only a couple of years ago that it was ~$1.60.
March 13, 2012 at 7:29 PM #739920SD Realtor
ParticipantAgain, I hate to belabor the point, but I am trying to point out that the past year or two seem to indicate that we are undergoing very fundamental changes.
It was pretty much inevitable.
March 14, 2012 at 7:37 AM #739928GuestSDR,
I get your point, I just decided to go off on a tangent. 😉
But I do think it is hard to tell from our own personal experiences. And it’s also hard to tell in the short-term.
That data about milk is good example. Over the long-term national milk prices haven’t risen much at all, but in the short-term – here in SD – for some reason milk has risen substantially in the past year. What does it mean? Maybe it’s an indication of the start of a new trend. Or maybe it’s an “outlier” (the distribution of year-over-year price changes for single goods, esp. agricultural goods is probably pretty wide.)
Watching inflation is like watching your hair grow. One day you just realize it’s longer. But that doesn’t mean it all happened in one day.
March 14, 2012 at 7:44 AM #739929scaredyclassic
ParticipantI think even coupons are getting hit by inflation they used to be worth 1/100 of a cent but now I see 2 and even 3/100 cent coupons.
March 14, 2012 at 7:45 AM #739930ParticipantGold?
March 14, 2012 at 2:05 PM #739980markmax33
GuestVote for somebody that will protect the dollar and maybe even legalize gold as a a competing currency as a means of buying and selling goods? Ron Paul anyone?
Inflation is a beotch once it starts…
March 14, 2012 at 11:37 PM #740001jstoesz
ParticipantI saw an inflation calculation out of Stanford or Harvard not to long ago that used amazon prices or some such thing to determine inflation. Does anyone know what I am talking about? It obviously did not jive with the gov stats, but nothing seems to in my reading. Government stats always land on the conservative side, by design I suppose. Hasn’t the inflation formula changed a couple dozen times since Nixon killed the last vestiges of the gold standard?
March 15, 2012 at 2:35 AM #740002CA renter
Participant[quote=pri_dk]SDR,
I get your point, I just decided to go off on a tangent. 😉
But I do think it is hard to tell from our own personal experiences. And it’s also hard to tell in the short-term.
That data about milk is good example. Over the long-term national milk prices haven’t risen much at all, but in the short-term – here in SD – for some reason milk has risen substantially in the past year. What does it mean? Maybe it’s an indication of the start of a new trend. Or maybe it’s an “outlier” (the distribution of year-over-year price changes for single goods, esp. agricultural goods is probably pretty wide.)
Watching inflation is like watching your hair grow. One day you just realize it’s longer. But that doesn’t mean it all happened in one day.[/quote]
“Dairy Farmers of America Inc. Dairy Farmers of America Inc.
Latest from The Business Journals
Legal news and notes: Settlement pops up
Dairy Farmers of America takes over Schreiber facility
Dairy Farmers of America buys Connecticut dairyFollow this company is a target of a class-action lawsuit alleging that dairy companies fixed the price of milk by slaughtering cows.
The suit, filed this week in federal court in California, alleges that members of the dairy trade group Cooperatives Working Together — of which DFA is a member — killed more than 500,000 cows between 2003 and 2010 to reduce the supply of milk and inflate its price.”
http://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2011/09/30/suit-dairy-companies-killed-cows-to.html
————-
“—>It’s so expensive to produce milk right now — due to low demand and high feed costs — that farmers are being paid to slaughter dairy cows in order to “shift the pain to consumers,” says Bloomberg.”
————————————
Note that one of the main factors that contributed to the farmers’ culling of their herds was the rising commodities prices (primarily feed, but rising land prices and water prices affected them as well).
IMHO, the rising prices ARE due to the artificially suppressed interest rates of the past ~10 years. Traders have been getting into commodities because they believe inflation is coming as a result of all this “cheap” money. This creates a positive feedback loop…as more people fear inflation, more people stock up on (or “invest” in) things that they believe will rise in price the most — basic goods that people need to survive, because they don’t have much of a choice WRT buying these goods (like housing, food, fuel, etc.). I believe we are at the tail end of a giant credit/central bank-fueled bubble that is desperately trying to deflate. The entire financial system is wobbling.
March 15, 2012 at 3:43 AM #740005
CoronitaParticipantWell, you might not see it in absolute dollars, but you definitely are buying less with it…
When was the last time you saw a gallon of ice cream instead of the 3 quarts?
March 15, 2012 at 6:40 AM #740006Participant[quote=flu]Well, you might not see it in absolute dollars, but you definitely are buying less with it…
When was the last time you saw a gallon of ice cream instead of the 3 quarts?[/quote]
that’s a good thing.
March 15, 2012 at 7:54 AM #740008ParticipantLess is more.
Less is more costly.
More or less.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.