North park flips… relatistic prices?

[sdrealtor]

Some good points to address. First off, SD is one of the places that has traditionally been more expensive just like SF, LA and NYC. There is something known as Glamour Cities (someone with lots of degrees put out a paper on it) where things sell at a premium. Given the choice of equal home prices most people would pay a premium to live in SD over Paducah, KS.

2nd, the 3X measure being outdated has to do with affordability and people are willing to pay a premium to live here if they can afford it. We are also a higher cost area and get the benefit of low interest rates on higher mortgage amounts (up to $697,500) that many parts of the country do not.

3rd, tax rates in CA are lower and in many cases much lower than other parts of the country. Back east where I grew up tax rates are several times greater on a givne assessed value. Additionally repeat buyers over 55 can transfer their tax basis so your point that it doesnt help repeat buyers is incorrect also.

4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.

5th, the weather and the beaches. Back east its not just the taxes but the harsh weather. As soon as they are able most retire to a warm climate like FLA. In SD they are already in a warm climate and have the added benfit of low real estate taxes. One of the reasons I moved here was knowing that when it came time to retire I wouldnt need or want to go elsewhere. I hate moving.

I know folks will say the weather has always been great here but dont underestimate the impact of the combination of Prop 13 (which hasnt always been here and took several decades to truly mainfest itself) and the weather. Many of the prime neighborhoods around here were sold to young families in the 60’s and 70’s. Most of the long time owners of these homes would have moved on in the 1990’s and 2000’s but stay on because the weather is fine for retirement and the low taxes cant be beat.

The idea that the reason why people dont buy isnt highly corrolated to not being able to afford it is utter nonsense. I never said it was a one-to-pne relationship but the corrolation must be off the charts.

Lastly, why shouldnt SD be one of the 10 most expensive metro areas on a relative basis. Its one of the 10 most desireable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desireable things. Why is that so hard to beleive?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?

[pemeliza]

“4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.”

Thank you sdr! I wanted to try to articulate this point as well but I was too lazy. You conveyed it nicely. When I moved to North Carolina in 2004 my property taxes started out at around 5-6k By the time I sold 5 years later they were up to around 9-10k. Older folks tend to get priced out of their houses which adds significantly to the supply. This is part of the reason I refer to SD as a “supply-constrained” market (especially the older “built-out” neighborhoods).

In my neighborhood in mission hills, there are properties with a tax assessment of 2M+ that are immediately adjacent to similar properties with a tax assessment of 200k. Where else in the country outside of California can you find this?

[pemeliza]

“4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.”

Thank you sdr! I wanted to try to articulate this point as well but I was too lazy. You conveyed it nicely. When I moved to North Carolina in 2004 my property taxes started out at around 5-6k By the time I sold 5 years later they were up to around 9-10k. Older folks tend to get priced out of their houses which adds significantly to the supply. This is part of the reason I refer to SD as a “supply-constrained” market (especially the older “built-out” neighborhoods).

In my neighborhood in mission hills, there are properties with a tax assessment of 2M+ that are immediately adjacent to similar properties with a tax assessment of 200k. Where else in the country outside of California can you find this?

[pemeliza]

“4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.”

Thank you sdr! I wanted to try to articulate this point as well but I was too lazy. You conveyed it nicely. When I moved to North Carolina in 2004 my property taxes started out at around 5-6k By the time I sold 5 years later they were up to around 9-10k. Older folks tend to get priced out of their houses which adds significantly to the supply. This is part of the reason I refer to SD as a “supply-constrained” market (especially the older “built-out” neighborhoods).

In my neighborhood in mission hills, there are properties with a tax assessment of 2M+ that are immediately adjacent to similar properties with a tax assessment of 200k. Where else in the country outside of California can you find this?

[pemeliza]

“4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.”

Thank you sdr! I wanted to try to articulate this point as well but I was too lazy. You conveyed it nicely. When I moved to North Carolina in 2004 my property taxes started out at around 5-6k By the time I sold 5 years later they were up to around 9-10k. Older folks tend to get priced out of their houses which adds significantly to the supply. This is part of the reason I refer to SD as a “supply-constrained” market (especially the older “built-out” neighborhoods).

In my neighborhood in mission hills, there are properties with a tax assessment of 2M+ that are immediately adjacent to similar properties with a tax assessment of 200k. Where else in the country outside of California can you find this?

[pemeliza]

“4th, Prop 13 has a huge impact here because long time owners dont get re-assessed every year. Back where I grew up, tax are re-assessed each year. Eventually they get excessive for the retirees who move. When I think back to where I grew up, within 5 years of their last child graduating from college I cant think of a single parent that stayed in their homes located in the high tax rate prime school districts. Around here they stay because the taxes are low which keeps inventory constrained to a degree not found in other states.”

Thank you sdr! I wanted to try to articulate this point as well but I was too lazy. You conveyed it nicely. When I moved to North Carolina in 2004 my property taxes started out at around 5-6k By the time I sold 5 years later they were up to around 9-10k. Older folks tend to get priced out of their houses which adds significantly to the supply. This is part of the reason I refer to SD as a “supply-constrained” market (especially the older “built-out” neighborhoods).

In my neighborhood in mission hills, there are properties with a tax assessment of 2M+ that are immediately adjacent to similar properties with a tax assessment of 200k. Where else in the country outside of California can you find this?

[jstoesz]

1. Just because it is historically expensive, does not mean there are fundementals to support it. It just means it has been historically expensive. (it seems we are ripe for a black swan type of event when you hear logic like this, then again perhaps not)

2. Interest rates are not lower in SD than the rest of the country…certainly not substantially.

3. Property taxes are lower, but sales tax, gas tax, and a myriad of other taxes are much higher. So I am not convinced that this will make a drastic difference, if anything the overall tax burden in California is much higher than nearly every other state. And this has a largely depressive effect on home prices. So if anything home prices should be cheaper than the rest of the nation because of people’s already squeezed budgets.

4. I agree that prop 13 is screwing things up…can’t argue with you here. But I am unsure of the magnitude of difference it has. Everyone has to sell someday. Old people die, and young people have to come in and buy. If the young people can’t afford the home, then it won’t sell for as much. Volume of sales is not as important as people’s ability to pay.

5. This issue is only true in regards to people who are retiring here from someplace other than SD. People who are not retired have to be able to afford their house on the salary they have. Retirees do not. I am not sure of the number of wealthy migrating retirees and how it compares to other cities and states. What percentage of the market is this, 1%…maybe? No idea really. But, I agree that they will drive prices higher and will not be factored into the median wage numbers. But for the rest of us schmucks still working, weather has no bearing on our ability to afford a house.

Finally,
“Its one of the 10 most desirable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desirable things. Why is that so hard to believe?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?”

This is what the conversation always denigrates to. Let me break down your first statement. You are basically saying, “the weather is good, so forget the gravity of a budget. Everybody gets the money to pay for their homes, whether they can pay for food or not.” But I say, it does not matter how good the weather is, people can only pay, what they can pay. And saying the prices are affordable is like denying basic rules of accounting.

Let me break down the second statement. You are basically saying, “If you don’t agree with me, go home to whatever non-californian state you came from.”

I really like san diego, it is a great place. I love the bay, and the beaches. I love all the great established neighborhoods, and even some of the midcentury architecture. But there are so many slum neighborhoods for way to much money, and as my wife and I want to have kids in the next few years, we are actively looking elsewhere. Can you really advocate raising kids in this state. How can a wife stay home with the kids, and still be able to pay the mortgage. How can a family live in a good school district, have a yard, and afford to eat? You can’t unless you are in the top 3%. But both fortunately and unfortunately my wife and I are apart of the few people in this state with high paying stable jobs, and that is hard to replace at the moment. So we are stuck waiting for homes to become more in line with the laws of accounting, or a good job to open up in a place not so filled with speculators.

[jstoesz]

1. Just because it is historically expensive, does not mean there are fundementals to support it. It just means it has been historically expensive. (it seems we are ripe for a black swan type of event when you hear logic like this, then again perhaps not)

2. Interest rates are not lower in SD than the rest of the country…certainly not substantially.

3. Property taxes are lower, but sales tax, gas tax, and a myriad of other taxes are much higher. So I am not convinced that this will make a drastic difference, if anything the overall tax burden in California is much higher than nearly every other state. And this has a largely depressive effect on home prices. So if anything home prices should be cheaper than the rest of the nation because of people’s already squeezed budgets.

4. I agree that prop 13 is screwing things up…can’t argue with you here. But I am unsure of the magnitude of difference it has. Everyone has to sell someday. Old people die, and young people have to come in and buy. If the young people can’t afford the home, then it won’t sell for as much. Volume of sales is not as important as people’s ability to pay.

5. This issue is only true in regards to people who are retiring here from someplace other than SD. People who are not retired have to be able to afford their house on the salary they have. Retirees do not. I am not sure of the number of wealthy migrating retirees and how it compares to other cities and states. What percentage of the market is this, 1%…maybe? No idea really. But, I agree that they will drive prices higher and will not be factored into the median wage numbers. But for the rest of us schmucks still working, weather has no bearing on our ability to afford a house.

Finally,
“Its one of the 10 most desirable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desirable things. Why is that so hard to believe?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?”

This is what the conversation always denigrates to. Let me break down your first statement. You are basically saying, “the weather is good, so forget the gravity of a budget. Everybody gets the money to pay for their homes, whether they can pay for food or not.” But I say, it does not matter how good the weather is, people can only pay, what they can pay. And saying the prices are affordable is like denying basic rules of accounting.

Let me break down the second statement. You are basically saying, “If you don’t agree with me, go home to whatever non-californian state you came from.”

I really like san diego, it is a great place. I love the bay, and the beaches. I love all the great established neighborhoods, and even some of the midcentury architecture. But there are so many slum neighborhoods for way to much money, and as my wife and I want to have kids in the next few years, we are actively looking elsewhere. Can you really advocate raising kids in this state. How can a wife stay home with the kids, and still be able to pay the mortgage. How can a family live in a good school district, have a yard, and afford to eat? You can’t unless you are in the top 3%. But both fortunately and unfortunately my wife and I are apart of the few people in this state with high paying stable jobs, and that is hard to replace at the moment. So we are stuck waiting for homes to become more in line with the laws of accounting, or a good job to open up in a place not so filled with speculators.

[jstoesz]

1. Just because it is historically expensive, does not mean there are fundementals to support it. It just means it has been historically expensive. (it seems we are ripe for a black swan type of event when you hear logic like this, then again perhaps not)

2. Interest rates are not lower in SD than the rest of the country…certainly not substantially.

3. Property taxes are lower, but sales tax, gas tax, and a myriad of other taxes are much higher. So I am not convinced that this will make a drastic difference, if anything the overall tax burden in California is much higher than nearly every other state. And this has a largely depressive effect on home prices. So if anything home prices should be cheaper than the rest of the nation because of people’s already squeezed budgets.

4. I agree that prop 13 is screwing things up…can’t argue with you here. But I am unsure of the magnitude of difference it has. Everyone has to sell someday. Old people die, and young people have to come in and buy. If the young people can’t afford the home, then it won’t sell for as much. Volume of sales is not as important as people’s ability to pay.

5. This issue is only true in regards to people who are retiring here from someplace other than SD. People who are not retired have to be able to afford their house on the salary they have. Retirees do not. I am not sure of the number of wealthy migrating retirees and how it compares to other cities and states. What percentage of the market is this, 1%…maybe? No idea really. But, I agree that they will drive prices higher and will not be factored into the median wage numbers. But for the rest of us schmucks still working, weather has no bearing on our ability to afford a house.

Finally,
“Its one of the 10 most desirable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desirable things. Why is that so hard to believe?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?”

This is what the conversation always denigrates to. Let me break down your first statement. You are basically saying, “the weather is good, so forget the gravity of a budget. Everybody gets the money to pay for their homes, whether they can pay for food or not.” But I say, it does not matter how good the weather is, people can only pay, what they can pay. And saying the prices are affordable is like denying basic rules of accounting.

Let me break down the second statement. You are basically saying, “If you don’t agree with me, go home to whatever non-californian state you came from.”

I really like san diego, it is a great place. I love the bay, and the beaches. I love all the great established neighborhoods, and even some of the midcentury architecture. But there are so many slum neighborhoods for way to much money, and as my wife and I want to have kids in the next few years, we are actively looking elsewhere. Can you really advocate raising kids in this state. How can a wife stay home with the kids, and still be able to pay the mortgage. How can a family live in a good school district, have a yard, and afford to eat? You can’t unless you are in the top 3%. But both fortunately and unfortunately my wife and I are apart of the few people in this state with high paying stable jobs, and that is hard to replace at the moment. So we are stuck waiting for homes to become more in line with the laws of accounting, or a good job to open up in a place not so filled with speculators.

[jstoesz]

1. Just because it is historically expensive, does not mean there are fundementals to support it. It just means it has been historically expensive. (it seems we are ripe for a black swan type of event when you hear logic like this, then again perhaps not)

2. Interest rates are not lower in SD than the rest of the country…certainly not substantially.

3. Property taxes are lower, but sales tax, gas tax, and a myriad of other taxes are much higher. So I am not convinced that this will make a drastic difference, if anything the overall tax burden in California is much higher than nearly every other state. And this has a largely depressive effect on home prices. So if anything home prices should be cheaper than the rest of the nation because of people’s already squeezed budgets.

4. I agree that prop 13 is screwing things up…can’t argue with you here. But I am unsure of the magnitude of difference it has. Everyone has to sell someday. Old people die, and young people have to come in and buy. If the young people can’t afford the home, then it won’t sell for as much. Volume of sales is not as important as people’s ability to pay.

5. This issue is only true in regards to people who are retiring here from someplace other than SD. People who are not retired have to be able to afford their house on the salary they have. Retirees do not. I am not sure of the number of wealthy migrating retirees and how it compares to other cities and states. What percentage of the market is this, 1%…maybe? No idea really. But, I agree that they will drive prices higher and will not be factored into the median wage numbers. But for the rest of us schmucks still working, weather has no bearing on our ability to afford a house.

Finally,
“Its one of the 10 most desirable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desirable things. Why is that so hard to believe?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?”

This is what the conversation always denigrates to. Let me break down your first statement. You are basically saying, “the weather is good, so forget the gravity of a budget. Everybody gets the money to pay for their homes, whether they can pay for food or not.” But I say, it does not matter how good the weather is, people can only pay, what they can pay. And saying the prices are affordable is like denying basic rules of accounting.

Let me break down the second statement. You are basically saying, “If you don’t agree with me, go home to whatever non-californian state you came from.”

I really like san diego, it is a great place. I love the bay, and the beaches. I love all the great established neighborhoods, and even some of the midcentury architecture. But there are so many slum neighborhoods for way to much money, and as my wife and I want to have kids in the next few years, we are actively looking elsewhere. Can you really advocate raising kids in this state. How can a wife stay home with the kids, and still be able to pay the mortgage. How can a family live in a good school district, have a yard, and afford to eat? You can’t unless you are in the top 3%. But both fortunately and unfortunately my wife and I are apart of the few people in this state with high paying stable jobs, and that is hard to replace at the moment. So we are stuck waiting for homes to become more in line with the laws of accounting, or a good job to open up in a place not so filled with speculators.

[jstoesz]

1. Just because it is historically expensive, does not mean there are fundementals to support it. It just means it has been historically expensive. (it seems we are ripe for a black swan type of event when you hear logic like this, then again perhaps not)

2. Interest rates are not lower in SD than the rest of the country…certainly not substantially.

3. Property taxes are lower, but sales tax, gas tax, and a myriad of other taxes are much higher. So I am not convinced that this will make a drastic difference, if anything the overall tax burden in California is much higher than nearly every other state. And this has a largely depressive effect on home prices. So if anything home prices should be cheaper than the rest of the nation because of people’s already squeezed budgets.

4. I agree that prop 13 is screwing things up…can’t argue with you here. But I am unsure of the magnitude of difference it has. Everyone has to sell someday. Old people die, and young people have to come in and buy. If the young people can’t afford the home, then it won’t sell for as much. Volume of sales is not as important as people’s ability to pay.

5. This issue is only true in regards to people who are retiring here from someplace other than SD. People who are not retired have to be able to afford their house on the salary they have. Retirees do not. I am not sure of the number of wealthy migrating retirees and how it compares to other cities and states. What percentage of the market is this, 1%…maybe? No idea really. But, I agree that they will drive prices higher and will not be factored into the median wage numbers. But for the rest of us schmucks still working, weather has no bearing on our ability to afford a house.

Finally,
“Its one of the 10 most desirable metro areas and better things always sell for more than less desirable things. Why is that so hard to believe?

This of course begs the obvious question. If its not worth paying more to live here, why are YOU here?”

This is what the conversation always denigrates to. Let me break down your first statement. You are basically saying, “the weather is good, so forget the gravity of a budget. Everybody gets the money to pay for their homes, whether they can pay for food or not.” But I say, it does not matter how good the weather is, people can only pay, what they can pay. And saying the prices are affordable is like denying basic rules of accounting.

Let me break down the second statement. You are basically saying, “If you don’t agree with me, go home to whatever non-californian state you came from.”

I really like san diego, it is a great place. I love the bay, and the beaches. I love all the great established neighborhoods, and even some of the midcentury architecture. But there are so many slum neighborhoods for way to much money, and as my wife and I want to have kids in the next few years, we are actively looking elsewhere. Can you really advocate raising kids in this state. How can a wife stay home with the kids, and still be able to pay the mortgage. How can a family live in a good school district, have a yard, and afford to eat? You can’t unless you are in the top 3%. But both fortunately and unfortunately my wife and I are apart of the few people in this state with high paying stable jobs, and that is hard to replace at the moment. So we are stuck waiting for homes to become more in line with the laws of accounting, or a good job to open up in a place not so filled with speculators.

[jstoesz]

BTW, I have thoroughly enjoyed this debate.

It is always good to get the arguments out, and find the deficiencies. Now if only logic could solve this problem. Although, sometimes shouting at the incoming tide feels good.

[jstoesz]

BTW, I have thoroughly enjoyed this debate.

It is always good to get the arguments out, and find the deficiencies. Now if only logic could solve this problem. Although, sometimes shouting at the incoming tide feels good.

[jstoesz]

BTW, I have thoroughly enjoyed this debate.

It is always good to get the arguments out, and find the deficiencies. Now if only logic could solve this problem. Although, sometimes shouting at the incoming tide feels good.

[jstoesz]

BTW, I have thoroughly enjoyed this debate.

It is always good to get the arguments out, and find the deficiencies. Now if only logic could solve this problem. Although, sometimes shouting at the incoming tide feels good.

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