No Rise in Home Prices Until 2020

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]Despite all the money printing and government spending, inflation did not take off in Japan. That’s the Japan lesson.
[/quote]

What money printing? Japanese money supply growth averaged about 2% a year all through the 90s (and beyond). The Japan lesson, as I keep trying to point out, is not that a central bank is unable to create inflation during a credit bust — it’s that the Japanese central bank didn’t try.

[briansd1]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=briansd1]Despite all the money printing and government spending, inflation did not take off in Japan. That’s the Japan lesson.
[/quote]

What money printing? Japanese money supply growth averaged about 2% a year all through the 90s (and beyond). The Japan lesson, as I keep trying to point out, is not that a central bank is unable to create inflation during a credit bust — it’s that the Japanese central bank didn’t try.[/quote]

yes, Rich. you are correct. I had meant to edit my post to take out the money printing part. The Japanese central bank was timid. That was the lesson Bernanke learned from studying Japan.

In America, we had the monetary part right thanks to Bernanke, but we are lacking the fiscal part. While the Federal government had a stimulus, the cuts at the state and local levels canceled out the Federal spending.

[UCGal]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]The logic, is that without inflation, we have 30% of mortgage holders (and no most will not be walking away) with approx. 90K in debt over what they could sell for ,meaning they are stuck and they are not going to be in a spending mood for a very long time.
[/quote]

I’m curious where you got this statistic. I’m not disputing it – just wondering if it’s accurate.

[The-Shoveler]

July 2011
California ranks in the top five of both categories. Nearly a third of California homeowners with mortgages — 2.1 million families — owe more than their homes are worth, according to CoreLogic. And each of those borrowers is underwater by an average of about $93,000

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/31/opinion/la-oe-gelinas-foreclosure-california-20110731

http://articles.ocregister.com/2011-09-16/news/30166535_1_negative-equity-corelogic-chief-economist-mark-fleming

[UCGal]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]July 2011
California ranks in the top five of both categories. Nearly a third of California homeowners with mortgages — 2.1 million families — owe more than their homes are worth, according to CoreLogic. And each of those borrowers is underwater by an average of about $93,000

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/31/opinion/la-oe-gelinas-foreclosure-california-20110731

http://articles.ocregister.com/2011-09-16/news/30166535_1_negative-equity-corelogic-chief-economist-mark-fleming%5B/quote%5D

Thanks.
I hadn’t realized you were just talking California. It didn’t fit what I see elsewhere. (midwest, east coast) But it does fit here.

Interesting to see that these stats are an improvement over a year ago. Not that it matters if you’re underwater.

[briansd1]

Nor-LA-SD-GUY2, any data on the total value of homes vs. the total value mortgages for different regions on California?

For example, Orlando and Las Vegas are underwater as a whole (according to NYT article).

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t have time today need to get stuff out,
Will try to look up this weekend,
I will throw this out, esp when people talk about vacant homes in the media, in really most of the vacant homes are only in a few cities like Detroit and when talking about percent’s they use towns like Tuscan AZ.
The way they talk you would think about 20-30% of the homes in SD are Vacant, but I guess the truth does not sell books or make good headlines.

[Author]

Posts