Most Reliable Housing Forecast?

[IONEGARM]

Yes, be rude, crass, invasive, and then blame others for calling you rude, crass, and invasive. Smart plan, it is working very well for you.

Argumentum ad hominem, what investments Rick made has no bearing on the arguments he is making (which he fully supports with data). If someone says 2+2 = 4 it isnt any less wrong if they are a College Professor or if they are a pedophile. The argument is to be discussed not the arguer. And it is especially weird because you agree with the argument and attack the arguer. You have zero right to know about Ricks financial dealings, do you demand to know his paycheck (why not?) as well? After all he is a “public figure”.

I have no idea why people continually put up with your stupidity on a daily basis. All you have ever done is parrot articles with no thoughtful analysis. Rick (and many others) add something to the discussion with every post he makes. You do not, you just spew articles that have been posted many times already and present the authors views as your own. I, personally, cannot wait until your new site launches, hopefully it will keep you nice and busy and away from all the good discussion sites on the internet. It will be a welcome relief.

[admin]

You are unbelievable. You didn’t ask anything. You just posted something that was wrong, without having all your facts and without bothering to try to get those facts. And then when I asked you to stop, you posted it again! That’s why I was angry (and I even admitted I overreacted because the WSJ article you cited also misrepresented things, and I apologized).

If you had asked my in a polite manner up front I would have provided you with the info, although not on the public forum (because, for the third time, not that I expect you to get it any more this time than the last two times, I am not interested in posting my personal financial info on a public forum).

Now, I see you are still unable to get it, and you are equating my valuing my own privacy with a lack of integrity:

What does matter to me very much, is that he has the integrity and courage to be open about this, and not hide behind “privacy”.

Go on and continue being obtuse if you want, but please be obtuse about something else. If you attack my integrity again that will be your very last post on this site.

[Dino]

This is my first time on this blog…you guys are nuts.

[Dino]

Of course, I mean that in a good way.

[qcomer]

PS,

Poorly done on “getting defensive” by you as well. Forget about Rich but why do you always get defensive if you are called wrong anytime on any topic or any piece of information? Rich very graciously handled your question and also apologised and explained his initial response. A graceful response from you would have been to accept his perfectly fair reasoning. You didn’t focus on his response but focussed on him calling you wrong.

You said Rich is “public personna”. Why and how? Just putting up a blog and discussing housing economics, doesn’t make him a public personna and requires him to disclose his personal finances. Repeatedly asking for someone’s finances would have been crass, invasive and rude though. Secondly, please explain how Rich revealing his profits could affect his integrity on this board? What is so courageous about being open about your personal finances? I for one, agree with Rich that it is in bad tatse to reveal or boast your profits on public forums. It makes discussions personal unnecessarily.

I think deep down you also know why you were called out on this one. The way you boast or announce your opinions as prophecies about timing DOW or RE markets, gives a glimpse of the over confident arrogance. In most cases, this arrogance leads you to argue just for the sake of it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We rely on Rich and Piggington as a reporter, analyzer of facts, and stimulator of independent thinking.

I also value contributions from other folks (including PS) when they provide useful information that we can analyze and come to our own conclusions.

Whether someone made a correct call (e.g. shorting the stock market in the latter half of 2006) or publishes their victories and losses should not be relevant.

So, I made 10x my money in real estate. So what ?
What if I actually made more and didn’t disclose it for personal reasons ? Does that make my call that SD SFRs will drop a nominal 19.3675% to 26.4285% in the current cycle any more valid than the next guy ? I think not.

When one reveals too much information about their personal exploits or failures it invites others to shoot the messenger rather than focus on the message. I applaud Rich for resisting.

Keep giving us the plain old boring facts Professor Piggington … And thanks for not trying to create a cult of personality about yourself.

[qcomer]

FSD,

Totally agree with you on Rich correctly resisting to post personal financial information here. Besides, maybe it is beyond understanding of some people, but I find it in bad taste to reveal or boast about your personal finances on public forums.

[brooke]

Powayseller,

Your posts on this topic:

1st post: you provide FALSE information as fact without attempting to verify it

2nd post: by again arguing that your post was correct, you actually accuse Rich of lying

3rd post: FOR THE THIRD TIME (after being told you were wrong) YOU POST FALSE INFORMATION AS FACT: “So my brother and Rich did not buy real estate in this boom, because they saw the bubble.”

4th post: you accuse Rich of being defensive about being asked about his personal finances when YOU DIDN’T ASK HIM about his personal finances!!! YOU STATED FALSE INFORMATION ABOUT HIM. Read your post – there is no question there. His response was extremely measured considering you had just libeled him.

5th post: you now accuse Rich of overstating his gains, of hiding his personal finances b/c they would reflect negatively on him, and being a tyrant toward forum participants

6th post: you insult another forum participant and you accuse Rich of getting defensive AGAIN!

Powayseller, thank you for demonstrating your commitment to fact verification and rational analysis. I can only assume the rest of the forum participants will take this into consideration when reading your other posts.

[PD]

Since Powayseller will now be a public persona when she starts her own site, we can expect the following to be provided upon demand:
An accounting of all her real estate purchases, including price paid, down payment amount, improvement costs, rebuilding costs, type of loan and actual profits.
FICO score
Total dollar amount of all investments
Complete accounting of profits vs. losses all the way back to her elementary school savings account
Number of credit cards and limits available
List of assets and approximate value
Monthly budget
Projected income for the year (including income from her website)
IRS returns
Account numbers and passwords

[North County Jim]

I guess that is *my* problem.

I just love the *my* bit. Right out of the bratty schoolgirl handbook. Did you roll your eyes when you wrote that?

Let’s see. You’ve alienated sdr and jim the realtor among others. You drove off docteur and now you insult the host.

Maybe, just maybe, it might be *your* problem.

[smfj]

If memory serves, I recall that Powayseller once said she confronts people (unsolicited) in the grocery store regarding their financial situation and real estate investments, so really, what can we expect?

(Note: Might not be 100% accurate, but that was the gist of it. Tried to search for it, but realized that would take forever…)

[balasr]

Usual PS stuff. When I called out on this kind of churlish behavior a while back, someone said this is the “Northern European” way of behaving and so it’s ok. While I strongly doubt a whole region can be this “jerky”, I hope I never have to live there if it’s indeed a character trait of people in those parts.

I didn’t buy real-estate, but this site helped me decide not to buy in 2005-2006. Great work Rich and thanks for sharing with us.

[Anonymous]

ps, you say that others have been ‘defensive.’ I say that you’ve been ‘offensive.’

PD, I’d like her Social Security number, too, please.

With ps’ ‘bombthrowing’ confined to her website, it will be good to get back to sane, civil discussion, even on sensitive topics, again.

[powayseller]

How did we get from “So my brother and Rich did not buy real estate in this boom, because they saw the bubble” to people wanting my bank records? Thanks to PD for bringing a little humor back in 🙂

The whole thing would have been avoided if Rich had simply answered, “I owned a San Diego home from 199x – 200x, and an Austin, TX home from 200x – 200x.” In essence, you guys did miss the boom because you owned real estate in Texas which appreciated 4% annually and did not keep your San Diego home from the late 1990’s, nor buy a San Diego home when you returned in 2003.

As I also said, so what? Does someone writing about real estate markets need to be an expert on real estate in the past? No. They only need to be an expert now. And you definitely know a lot about real estate markets.

As far as the boys who got into the mix above, they quickly went into auto pilot, seeing a golden opportunity to try to belittle me, a delight for that group of boys. In this way, they are giving me more free publicity. As celebrities are well aware, negative publicity is better than none. So these nice boys have given me not only publicity, but the kind of thick skin that comes in real handy. Heck, some people might even accuse me and Rich, with Brooke as accomplice, for orchestrating this entire post to increase traffic to this site and increase anticipation of my own debut. (Remember when lots of people thought powayseller was Rich in disguise?)

[RottedOak]

For what it’s worth, I don’t think there is any necessary relationship between prognostication and profit. I profited nicely from the bubble: sold in So Cal in mid-2004, then bought in another area, where I recently sold again. I probably got close to the peak in both areas (won’t know about the other area until the decline fully sets in here). But I wouldn’t take that history as proof I can call future ups and downs. I might have just been lucky. In the other direction, there are all sorts of reasons someone might not have jumped on RE as an investment, but still be good at calling the market.

Obviously if you are good at calling a market, and are willing and able to invest in it, then ample profits await. But one can could definitely have one without the other.

[Author]

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