Mira Mesa prices

[feraina]

[quote=ibjames]How much has rent increased in that area in the last few years? Isn’t it a possibility that rents will decrease also?[/quote]

I can’t see rents decreasing substantially. There’s a large and stable student population from UCSD that needs housing. With worsening economy and rising inflation, students are more likely to cut cost by piling up in a big MM house instead of getting a 1BR apt or sharing a 2BR apt in UTC or La Jolla, thus increasing the rental pressure in MM. UCSD students can ride buses for free from MM to campus.

[DWCAP]

Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.

I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.

The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.

[DWCAP]

Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.

I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.

The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.

[DWCAP]

Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.

I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.

The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.

[DWCAP]

Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.

I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.

The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.

[DWCAP]

Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.

I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.

The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.

[ibjames]

OK, I was unaware of a large student population in the area, because I admit, I’m not familiar with it. So there are more things to consider then

[ibjames]

OK, I was unaware of a large student population in the area, because I admit, I’m not familiar with it. So there are more things to consider then

[ibjames]

OK, I was unaware of a large student population in the area, because I admit, I’m not familiar with it. So there are more things to consider then

[ibjames]

OK, I was unaware of a large student population in the area, because I admit, I’m not familiar with it. So there are more things to consider then

[ibjames]

OK, I was unaware of a large student population in the area, because I admit, I’m not familiar with it. So there are more things to consider then

[an]

[quote=ibjames]How much has rent increased in that area in the last few years?

Isn’t it a possibility that rents will decrease also? Especially if we are getting a raise in rates perhaps in the near future?

I think it’s very possible for prices in mira mesa to still decline a bit. How much, who knows. Interest rates have to raise, and we still have loan resets coming. I don’t know many that want to live in Mira Mesa (I want to, but so many seem to stereotype it a bit). If prices start declining in other areas, then MM becomes even less attractive.

Like I said, I’m not an expert, but just trying to make sense of things.

Asian, I know you are very familiar with the area, are you saying the average house price should be 325k then?[/quote]
Rent has gone up about 4%/year over the last 15 years. Like other have said, I think the renter pool in MM is much higher than others due to its proximity to UCSD and various high tech job centers.

What I’m trying to say is $325k at today’s rate is where it’s reasonable when comparing rent vs buy. It gives similar rent vs buy ratio as the bottom of the last cycle. We can very well undershoot much more this time than last time, so it could go much lower, but I won’t know until it happen. Same could happen if rates goes higher and drive down price even further.

[an]

[quote=ibjames]How much has rent increased in that area in the last few years?

Isn’t it a possibility that rents will decrease also? Especially if we are getting a raise in rates perhaps in the near future?

I think it’s very possible for prices in mira mesa to still decline a bit. How much, who knows. Interest rates have to raise, and we still have loan resets coming. I don’t know many that want to live in Mira Mesa (I want to, but so many seem to stereotype it a bit). If prices start declining in other areas, then MM becomes even less attractive.

Like I said, I’m not an expert, but just trying to make sense of things.

Asian, I know you are very familiar with the area, are you saying the average house price should be 325k then?[/quote]
Rent has gone up about 4%/year over the last 15 years. Like other have said, I think the renter pool in MM is much higher than others due to its proximity to UCSD and various high tech job centers.

What I’m trying to say is $325k at today’s rate is where it’s reasonable when comparing rent vs buy. It gives similar rent vs buy ratio as the bottom of the last cycle. We can very well undershoot much more this time than last time, so it could go much lower, but I won’t know until it happen. Same could happen if rates goes higher and drive down price even further.

[an]

[quote=ibjames]How much has rent increased in that area in the last few years?

Isn’t it a possibility that rents will decrease also? Especially if we are getting a raise in rates perhaps in the near future?

I think it’s very possible for prices in mira mesa to still decline a bit. How much, who knows. Interest rates have to raise, and we still have loan resets coming. I don’t know many that want to live in Mira Mesa (I want to, but so many seem to stereotype it a bit). If prices start declining in other areas, then MM becomes even less attractive.

Like I said, I’m not an expert, but just trying to make sense of things.

Asian, I know you are very familiar with the area, are you saying the average house price should be 325k then?[/quote]
Rent has gone up about 4%/year over the last 15 years. Like other have said, I think the renter pool in MM is much higher than others due to its proximity to UCSD and various high tech job centers.

What I’m trying to say is $325k at today’s rate is where it’s reasonable when comparing rent vs buy. It gives similar rent vs buy ratio as the bottom of the last cycle. We can very well undershoot much more this time than last time, so it could go much lower, but I won’t know until it happen. Same could happen if rates goes higher and drive down price even further.

[an]

[quote=ibjames]How much has rent increased in that area in the last few years?

Isn’t it a possibility that rents will decrease also? Especially if we are getting a raise in rates perhaps in the near future?

I think it’s very possible for prices in mira mesa to still decline a bit. How much, who knows. Interest rates have to raise, and we still have loan resets coming. I don’t know many that want to live in Mira Mesa (I want to, but so many seem to stereotype it a bit). If prices start declining in other areas, then MM becomes even less attractive.

Like I said, I’m not an expert, but just trying to make sense of things.

Asian, I know you are very familiar with the area, are you saying the average house price should be 325k then?[/quote]
Rent has gone up about 4%/year over the last 15 years. Like other have said, I think the renter pool in MM is much higher than others due to its proximity to UCSD and various high tech job centers.

What I’m trying to say is $325k at today’s rate is where it’s reasonable when comparing rent vs buy. It gives similar rent vs buy ratio as the bottom of the last cycle. We can very well undershoot much more this time than last time, so it could go much lower, but I won’t know until it happen. Same could happen if rates goes higher and drive down price even further.

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