Mira Mesa…

[92027_guy]

Hello All,

I’m a first time poster and recent reader, I enjoyed reading the articles about Mira Mesa, many of the respondents giving opinions had excellent local knowledge of the area. So I’ve lived in MM since 2003, I got married in 2005 and wife and I bought a 4/2.5 1800sq overlooking a canyon in the 1980’s cookie cutter style houses north-west of New Salem. Not the best decision I made in my life that’s for sure, but I have to say I was surprised to see so many comments like “MM is taking a beating” so far what I’ve seen MM is holding up well. Either that or I’m as green as I feel with all this.
So my house was worth approx. 600k at the time and I bought in mid 500’s. I think now it’s worth realistically 480 – 490k. That’s about 120k off, nothing like the 250k to 300k down that my coworkers in Chula vista and the like are facing, granted that’s not San Diego technically but I think it’s important to keep MM in perspective. I’m hoping the location close to SV biotechs, UCSD, and MiraMar will keep me above 450k and then start to rise after a year or so from now, or we will most likely be looking to short sell/foreclose (I reset in 2011).

Any thoughts? Am I wrong on the MM not falling as bad as other areas of SoCal?

Thanks

[an]

Even within Mira Mesa, there are sub-markets that are behaving differently. Many single story 1100-1400 sq-ft house in MM have dropped about 200k, from 550k to 350k. This are the houses that I say “are taking a beating”. Houses like yours, around 1800+ sq-ft on the west side of Mira Mesa are so far hanging on better. There are 2 houses (without view) ~1800 sq-ft around your area asking for $470k-$485k. They’ve been listed for 40-60+ days and they’re still not sold. I’m a prospective buyer in MM and I wouldn’t pay that kind of premium sellers are asking for those houses vs the 1300-1400 sq-ft single story one in the same area.

I think that type of houses in MM will have a lot more to fall than the 1100-1400 sq-ft houses. I personally don’t think MM will rebound in 2 years, especially when we haven’t even hit bottom yet. The last time it crashed in the 90s, it stayed around the bottom for ~2 years. So I don’t expect to see a recover for probably another 4-5 years.

This all assume interest rate doesn’t rise. All bets are off if it does. If it doesn’t rise, the max I’d pay for your type of house would be $400k and I’d only pay $450k for those 2000+ sq-ft house north of Calle Cristobal. That’s just my 2 cents as a prospective buyer.

[an]

Even within Mira Mesa, there are sub-markets that are behaving differently. Many single story 1100-1400 sq-ft house in MM have dropped about 200k, from 550k to 350k. This are the houses that I say “are taking a beating”. Houses like yours, around 1800+ sq-ft on the west side of Mira Mesa are so far hanging on better. There are 2 houses (without view) ~1800 sq-ft around your area asking for $470k-$485k. They’ve been listed for 40-60+ days and they’re still not sold. I’m a prospective buyer in MM and I wouldn’t pay that kind of premium sellers are asking for those houses vs the 1300-1400 sq-ft single story one in the same area.

I think that type of houses in MM will have a lot more to fall than the 1100-1400 sq-ft houses. I personally don’t think MM will rebound in 2 years, especially when we haven’t even hit bottom yet. The last time it crashed in the 90s, it stayed around the bottom for ~2 years. So I don’t expect to see a recover for probably another 4-5 years.

This all assume interest rate doesn’t rise. All bets are off if it does. If it doesn’t rise, the max I’d pay for your type of house would be $400k and I’d only pay $450k for those 2000+ sq-ft house north of Calle Cristobal. That’s just my 2 cents as a prospective buyer.

[an]

Even within Mira Mesa, there are sub-markets that are behaving differently. Many single story 1100-1400 sq-ft house in MM have dropped about 200k, from 550k to 350k. This are the houses that I say “are taking a beating”. Houses like yours, around 1800+ sq-ft on the west side of Mira Mesa are so far hanging on better. There are 2 houses (without view) ~1800 sq-ft around your area asking for $470k-$485k. They’ve been listed for 40-60+ days and they’re still not sold. I’m a prospective buyer in MM and I wouldn’t pay that kind of premium sellers are asking for those houses vs the 1300-1400 sq-ft single story one in the same area.

I think that type of houses in MM will have a lot more to fall than the 1100-1400 sq-ft houses. I personally don’t think MM will rebound in 2 years, especially when we haven’t even hit bottom yet. The last time it crashed in the 90s, it stayed around the bottom for ~2 years. So I don’t expect to see a recover for probably another 4-5 years.

This all assume interest rate doesn’t rise. All bets are off if it does. If it doesn’t rise, the max I’d pay for your type of house would be $400k and I’d only pay $450k for those 2000+ sq-ft house north of Calle Cristobal. That’s just my 2 cents as a prospective buyer.

[an]

Even within Mira Mesa, there are sub-markets that are behaving differently. Many single story 1100-1400 sq-ft house in MM have dropped about 200k, from 550k to 350k. This are the houses that I say “are taking a beating”. Houses like yours, around 1800+ sq-ft on the west side of Mira Mesa are so far hanging on better. There are 2 houses (without view) ~1800 sq-ft around your area asking for $470k-$485k. They’ve been listed for 40-60+ days and they’re still not sold. I’m a prospective buyer in MM and I wouldn’t pay that kind of premium sellers are asking for those houses vs the 1300-1400 sq-ft single story one in the same area.

I think that type of houses in MM will have a lot more to fall than the 1100-1400 sq-ft houses. I personally don’t think MM will rebound in 2 years, especially when we haven’t even hit bottom yet. The last time it crashed in the 90s, it stayed around the bottom for ~2 years. So I don’t expect to see a recover for probably another 4-5 years.

This all assume interest rate doesn’t rise. All bets are off if it does. If it doesn’t rise, the max I’d pay for your type of house would be $400k and I’d only pay $450k for those 2000+ sq-ft house north of Calle Cristobal. That’s just my 2 cents as a prospective buyer.

[an]

Even within Mira Mesa, there are sub-markets that are behaving differently. Many single story 1100-1400 sq-ft house in MM have dropped about 200k, from 550k to 350k. This are the houses that I say “are taking a beating”. Houses like yours, around 1800+ sq-ft on the west side of Mira Mesa are so far hanging on better. There are 2 houses (without view) ~1800 sq-ft around your area asking for $470k-$485k. They’ve been listed for 40-60+ days and they’re still not sold. I’m a prospective buyer in MM and I wouldn’t pay that kind of premium sellers are asking for those houses vs the 1300-1400 sq-ft single story one in the same area.

I think that type of houses in MM will have a lot more to fall than the 1100-1400 sq-ft houses. I personally don’t think MM will rebound in 2 years, especially when we haven’t even hit bottom yet. The last time it crashed in the 90s, it stayed around the bottom for ~2 years. So I don’t expect to see a recover for probably another 4-5 years.

This all assume interest rate doesn’t rise. All bets are off if it does. If it doesn’t rise, the max I’d pay for your type of house would be $400k and I’d only pay $450k for those 2000+ sq-ft house north of Calle Cristobal. That’s just my 2 cents as a prospective buyer.

[SD Transplant]

92126 Guy,

You’ve made a good point about your location (West MM), but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration your immediate neighborhood. As AN pointed out, there are units for sale for over 40 days w/out much activity. These might change the comps in your area. You don’t know right now how many of your neighbors have either (1) refinanced into a bad loan, (2) HELOC the hell out of their houses, and/or(3) their mortgage is about to reset.

If I were you, I woudn’t stress about it too much if you purchased your place the right way: money down, fixed mortgage, in it for the long term, no flipping…..or have wealthy parents 🙂

Needless to say, check out the today’s UT paper which makes San Diego a winner again (in the foreclosure sector)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080722-1200-bn22default.html

In conclusion, with foreclosure topping records, unemployment at the highest since 1995 (I’ve heard 5.7% for SD county), and poor prospects for high paying jobs………there isn’t much recovery anywhere.

P.S. I lived in Mira Mesa for 13 years….I remember back in 1995 my landloard use to beg me to buy his place ( just to get rid of it – that was my 1st bubble lesson). We’re pretty much turning back the clock – I wonder for how far back?. Prices are wayyyy out of wack and the pendulum may swing negatively for many years and by many RE investment formulas, as GRM comes to mind.

[SD Transplant]

92126 Guy,

You’ve made a good point about your location (West MM), but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration your immediate neighborhood. As AN pointed out, there are units for sale for over 40 days w/out much activity. These might change the comps in your area. You don’t know right now how many of your neighbors have either (1) refinanced into a bad loan, (2) HELOC the hell out of their houses, and/or(3) their mortgage is about to reset.

If I were you, I woudn’t stress about it too much if you purchased your place the right way: money down, fixed mortgage, in it for the long term, no flipping…..or have wealthy parents 🙂

Needless to say, check out the today’s UT paper which makes San Diego a winner again (in the foreclosure sector)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080722-1200-bn22default.html

In conclusion, with foreclosure topping records, unemployment at the highest since 1995 (I’ve heard 5.7% for SD county), and poor prospects for high paying jobs………there isn’t much recovery anywhere.

P.S. I lived in Mira Mesa for 13 years….I remember back in 1995 my landloard use to beg me to buy his place ( just to get rid of it – that was my 1st bubble lesson). We’re pretty much turning back the clock – I wonder for how far back?. Prices are wayyyy out of wack and the pendulum may swing negatively for many years and by many RE investment formulas, as GRM comes to mind.

[SD Transplant]

92126 Guy,

You’ve made a good point about your location (West MM), but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration your immediate neighborhood. As AN pointed out, there are units for sale for over 40 days w/out much activity. These might change the comps in your area. You don’t know right now how many of your neighbors have either (1) refinanced into a bad loan, (2) HELOC the hell out of their houses, and/or(3) their mortgage is about to reset.

If I were you, I woudn’t stress about it too much if you purchased your place the right way: money down, fixed mortgage, in it for the long term, no flipping…..or have wealthy parents 🙂

Needless to say, check out the today’s UT paper which makes San Diego a winner again (in the foreclosure sector)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080722-1200-bn22default.html

In conclusion, with foreclosure topping records, unemployment at the highest since 1995 (I’ve heard 5.7% for SD county), and poor prospects for high paying jobs………there isn’t much recovery anywhere.

P.S. I lived in Mira Mesa for 13 years….I remember back in 1995 my landloard use to beg me to buy his place ( just to get rid of it – that was my 1st bubble lesson). We’re pretty much turning back the clock – I wonder for how far back?. Prices are wayyyy out of wack and the pendulum may swing negatively for many years and by many RE investment formulas, as GRM comes to mind.

[SD Transplant]

92126 Guy,

You’ve made a good point about your location (West MM), but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration your immediate neighborhood. As AN pointed out, there are units for sale for over 40 days w/out much activity. These might change the comps in your area. You don’t know right now how many of your neighbors have either (1) refinanced into a bad loan, (2) HELOC the hell out of their houses, and/or(3) their mortgage is about to reset.

If I were you, I woudn’t stress about it too much if you purchased your place the right way: money down, fixed mortgage, in it for the long term, no flipping…..or have wealthy parents 🙂

Needless to say, check out the today’s UT paper which makes San Diego a winner again (in the foreclosure sector)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080722-1200-bn22default.html

In conclusion, with foreclosure topping records, unemployment at the highest since 1995 (I’ve heard 5.7% for SD county), and poor prospects for high paying jobs………there isn’t much recovery anywhere.

P.S. I lived in Mira Mesa for 13 years….I remember back in 1995 my landloard use to beg me to buy his place ( just to get rid of it – that was my 1st bubble lesson). We’re pretty much turning back the clock – I wonder for how far back?. Prices are wayyyy out of wack and the pendulum may swing negatively for many years and by many RE investment formulas, as GRM comes to mind.

[SD Transplant]

92126 Guy,

You’ve made a good point about your location (West MM), but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration your immediate neighborhood. As AN pointed out, there are units for sale for over 40 days w/out much activity. These might change the comps in your area. You don’t know right now how many of your neighbors have either (1) refinanced into a bad loan, (2) HELOC the hell out of their houses, and/or(3) their mortgage is about to reset.

If I were you, I woudn’t stress about it too much if you purchased your place the right way: money down, fixed mortgage, in it for the long term, no flipping…..or have wealthy parents 🙂

Needless to say, check out the today’s UT paper which makes San Diego a winner again (in the foreclosure sector)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080722-1200-bn22default.html

In conclusion, with foreclosure topping records, unemployment at the highest since 1995 (I’ve heard 5.7% for SD county), and poor prospects for high paying jobs………there isn’t much recovery anywhere.

P.S. I lived in Mira Mesa for 13 years….I remember back in 1995 my landloard use to beg me to buy his place ( just to get rid of it – that was my 1st bubble lesson). We’re pretty much turning back the clock – I wonder for how far back?. Prices are wayyyy out of wack and the pendulum may swing negatively for many years and by many RE investment formulas, as GRM comes to mind.

[an]

SD Transplant, 92126_Guy did say that if things get worse, he’ll need to foreclose/short sale because that’s when his loan reset. No one really know when we’ll start turning back up again. Only time will tell.

[an]

SD Transplant, 92126_Guy did say that if things get worse, he’ll need to foreclose/short sale because that’s when his loan reset. No one really know when we’ll start turning back up again. Only time will tell.

[an]

SD Transplant, 92126_Guy did say that if things get worse, he’ll need to foreclose/short sale because that’s when his loan reset. No one really know when we’ll start turning back up again. Only time will tell.

[an]

SD Transplant, 92126_Guy did say that if things get worse, he’ll need to foreclose/short sale because that’s when his loan reset. No one really know when we’ll start turning back up again. Only time will tell.

[Author]

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