Median Prices are a Good Reflection of the Market

[Steve Beebo]

SD Realtor:

You make good points about the number of expired, cancelled, and withdrawn listings. I'm sure it's not easy to get anything sold right now.  I do still think that median prices of resale homes, while not perfect, are the best judge of the market.   Also, since there is a 2-3 month lag in reporting the statistic, I will concede that things have gotten slightly worse in the last three months.

But CNN Money says that prices in San Diego will only go down 3.3% in 2007, and 1.2% in 2008.   There are a lot of homeowners, (including me), that will be very happy if that's as bad as it gets.   I'm not as pessimistic about prices as most on this forum, but I'm not quite as optimistic as CNN. 

http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_realestate/4.html

[ibjames]

I agree SD, it’s a shame that realtors that actually do their job and show people the accurate statistics are discredited by the bad realtors. I can imagine that they are thinking you just want to close it and get some cash instead of waiting and selling for more.

I like people like that, in the end, they will probably lower their prices even more as the market slips more and they get desperate.

My boss knew it was time to get out, he bought a house interest only. He had access to the mls, did his research on recent sales, etc. Priced his house 20-30k less than everyone else. When 60 days was just starting to be a big time on the market. He sold his in a week and walked away with 100k cash and piece of mind. He could have tried to battle out and try to get top dollar, but he knew time wasn’t on his side at this point. You would think more people would have common sense. To own a house like that you have to have a decent job that requires intellect.

[powayseller]

jg, could you stop with the passive agressive behavior? Correcting my spelling, i.e. one typo in the thousands of words I write? Taunting me for not updating a blog that my son wrote for fun this summer? What is your point? If you have a problem with my comments, address them directly. Are you still mad that I corrected your understanding of “reserves on ice”? I was corrected by my brother to include repurchase agreements to our discussion, in which case the flow of money is even greater (although my points still holds true). Or are you mad that I disagree with you on the median? Why do you try to belittle people that disagree with you?

The median lags because prices are falling more than the median shows. Prices on each home have fallen more than 5%. Anyone who thinks the median is accurate would have to believe that most homes in San Diego have fallen 5% off their peak. I just haven’t seen the data to support that. As the realtors here write, we are back to 2003/2004 prices.

How is the Case-Shiller index calculated anyway? If they take same-house sales, would they take a May 2000 sale at $350K, and then look at the most recent sale in October 2006 at $600K, and figure that house gained in price? How do they figure out the peak, and subtract the price of the October 2006 house from the actual peak?

Those wondering about my website: I’m forming an S Corporation, under advice of my attorney and CPA to be effective after January 1, to avoid the $800 annual fee for 2006. The website has a forum, and a premium content area (paypal payment). It is a .com address, so not a blog. It’s a southern California housing forecast, and the entire forecast will be in the premium section. Also covered will be insider interviews, some interesting new stories on the new fraud going on out there, and much more. I don’t want to keep advertising my site here, so I respectfully request that posters refrain from asking me about it. This is Rich’s site. When I am ready, I will make one thread and announce it to all.

[sdrealtor]

PS,
I think you have come up with the ultimate in irony. I always chuckle when you create an outlandish thread title that is a hyperbole of what is actually in the thread. Now you are heading in reverse with http://www.southerncaliforniadreaming.com. Was this an intentional attempt at irony?

[Anonymous]

Good looking website and catchy name — http://www.southerncaliforniadreaming.com — ps. I look forward to perusing it come Jan. 1.

Read only? Aw, c’mon: we have all learned ‘bomb-throwing’ from your posts on this website and on Jim the Realtor’s. Can’t you let us have fun on your site, too?

You believe we’ll have deflation (a la Mish), I believe we’ll have inflation (a la Jantzen); we’ll see how the dust settles in a few years.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

PS –
Prices on each home have fallen more than 5%.

I agree 100%. However, this does not mean that the median is not a good barometer of the overall market. Ignoring a useful indicator like the median price (even with its flaws) could be just as dangerous as ignoring changes in inventory, changes in job creation, and net migration. After all, it was used extensively here to make arguments that we were in an unsustainable bubble.

Anyone who thinks the median is accurate would have to believe that most homes in San Diego have fallen 5% off their peak. I have to disagree 100% with this. We are intelligent enough to know that the median is the midpoint of all homes sold. We are also intelligent enough to know that it reflects both any changes in the mix of homes sold as well as price inflation/deflation. Those who have done their homework also know that it does not represent the change in price of any particular home, including our own, the one we rent, or the one we will some day purchase. It simply reflects the mid-point of homes that people are now purchasing.

[Anonymous]

Oh, by the way, ps, you DO have a problem spelling 'official':

From THREE separate posts on ONE page on ONE thread:

http://piggington.com/off_topic_did_this_really_happen?page=2

"…UAL did not give their offical version…"

"…His research led to one conclusion: the offical story is a lie…"

"…Anyone who seriously wants to say the offical story is true…"

"…approach to the shortcomings in the offical story…"

Unsolicited advice, ps:  on your new website, you may want to consider using a spellchecker before you post.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How is the Case-Shiller index calculated anyway? If they take same-house sales, would they take a May 2000 sale at $350K, and then look at the most recent sale in October 2006 at $600K, and figure that house gained in price? How do they figure out the peak, and subtract the price of the October 2006 house from the actual peak?

Interesting question. It’s an index, so they can use statistics over whatever was sold in a period (quarter), but how do they normalize/relate the data so that they have meaning relative to the mix of sales in other quarters ?

At least we understand the median and can try to understand it’s flaws and sometimes counter-intuitive trends (e.g. market spiking because high end sales continue, while low-end sales evaporate as the market started to soften).

[Author]

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