Market to pick up in the spring??

[BuyerWillEPB]

Yeah, just keep waiting until the generation behind you comes up and buys from underneath you. lol
—————————————

Well, since the next generation didn’t buy in 2005, they must all be “priced out forever” too!

Nice try for the drama though, dumbass!

[Anonymous]

LostCat, kiss those projects goodbye, because the tax revenues are drying up:

“…As sales tax receipts and other state income has fallen in recent months with a slowdown in California’s construction and real estate sectors…”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20061228-1755-ca-statebudget-taxpayerx.html

You better start going to church, ’cause you don’t have a prayer, man.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’m in! Here’s how I think it will play out. Sales volume will be more or less equal to lst year but the decline will be much slower this year. From an SDR perspective, many johnnycomelately’s will be working away at their new careers in the service sector and there will be better years for folks like myself and sd r. I just think we are in for a slow stagnant market regarding price declines. The steep drop in prices last year was easy because it all came so unexpectantly and quickly two years ago. Now we are back to prices that have much more fundamental support as I see it.

BTW, 6 houses sold at prices well over $1M today in Encinitas/South Carlsbad. That is more than I have EVER seen before.

SDR

[little lady]

Say what you will, but with the foreclosers skyrocketing, and job losses,unemployment rising,ARM’s reseting, interest rates that won’t come down, soaring inventory,sluggish market………I AM OUTTA HERE!(If my house sells)

I see the tide has gone out, the sea is gone,fish flapping in the sand, I am headed for HIGHER ground, TSUNAMI!!!!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Here are my observations from the properties I have looked at in OC and San Diego. The activity level has picked up some anecdotally. My Zip realty searches are returning alot of new listings each day up here that fit my criteria, not too many that fit it down in San Diego. This is activity, but not bullish activity.

There are still ridiculous asking prices on most of the homes I have seen, and I do not believe there is any chance of the majority of them selling for these prices. There have been alot of people walking through some of the homes that I have viewed, unlike 6 months ago when it was dead. I am working with SD Realtor on one place specifically and may wind up buying it, but my offer was well below the asking price, so it may not get any play.

I do think that prices will continue downward, although at a slow rate. I expect any property that I buy to devalue by itleast 10% or more over the next few years. I have never believed that buying a home is an investment. Unless you pay cash, the amount you wind up paying even on an after tax basis, is a multiple of the original price by a large enough amount, that you have to have a run like we have had, just to get ahead at all on the outlay.

However, due to my unique need for equestrian, etc.. I do have a somewhat limited offering of available stuff, and most of it is crap. Things have softened enough for me to start seriously trying to find something. If it initially drops 200k or so in the first few years, it does not matter to me. My plan will be to use a precipitous drop to buy a second home on the sand somewhere. It could very well be awhile before I actually buy because I am not going to chase anything, but if I find what I want I will try to make the best deal I can on it and move ahead. If I do not, I will stay on the sidelines. I do think by the end of the year this, we will be looking at a bad year in Southern California Real Estate. However, I think the chances of a 50% decline off the top are zero, I am in the 20% – 25% camp, with 10% already in the books.

BTW – a dead cat bounce is a term that is being used alot by people scouring the net. A dead cat bounce is a term from the trading world for a weak upward bounce on “declining volume.” I do not see how RE prices could rise on declining volume, so I do not think this can happen in RE. The median could do it due to how it is calculated, but a true broad market rise cannot happen, on declining sales volume in the housing market( just my opinion ).

[LostCat]

What happened in the 90s stays in the 90s.

[Cow_tipping]

Talk is really really expensive … I believe the NAR spent 40 mil on 10 lies and a poorly drawn cartoon.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[noone]

Have fun waiting on the fense, you’ll be there for a long time. Maybe so long you retire with out ever owning. Then because your rent will adjust to inflation every year, by the time you’re 80…

… you will have millions invested in other areas that you can tap into. I on the other hand have been paying on and re-financing ARM, Interest only, and neg-am mortgages for the past 40 years and now owe twice as much as my house is worth. Since all my income was spent on mortgage payments and loan fees there was never enough money left at the end of the month to invest in retirement savings. My greeter job doesn’t qualify me for health care coverage, and medi-care can’t cover all my medical bills. Can I borrow a little money from you to pay for my prescriptions?

[Cow_tipping]

Submitted by Chris Scoreboar… on January 31, 2007 – 10:00am.

However, I think the chances of a 50% decline off the top are zero, I am in the 20% – 25% camp, with 10% already in the books.

Its going to decline to where fundamentals dictate. Instead of actually discussing percentages we should look at that.
20-25% might be well the fundamentals if there have been a lot of high paying jobs that have moved into the area. I however think all the high paying jobs have been sent to India and China and the late 90’s market is itself a fantasy.
Typically 3X income is your house price. If its a great area maybe 4X income. Assuming all of the greater SD is a desirable area (and yes some of it definetly is) that is my thought. Maybe wages will sky rocket in SD and make it so in the next 2-3 years.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[LostCat]

I agree with Cow Tippin.. Unfortunately, I believe that only about 8% of the rest of the decline is going to show in real value, meaning where you actually see the price decline and the papers report it. The rest of the decline will be assumed through the fact that housing prices will not increase at the rate of inflation over the next 3 or 4 years, therefore, the loss will be subliminal to most. The media will just let everyone know that things are flat.

[Cow_tipping]

I think if volumes stay low the starving realt-whores will in a month or 2 promptly throw “the good time to buy or sell a home” crap out the window and throw their weight behind the fact that … “House prices are down and we are super over stocked, you need a relator to bash the living crap out of the sellers now” mantra. then its going to be a short time before 99% of agents become buyers agents only and the Sellers are left in the dust unless their houses are priced right or they listen to sense. through it all, builders will build you houses for 1/4th of what they were building them for in 05 and laugh all the way to the bank.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[zk]

“A dead cat bounce is a term from the trading world for a weak upward bounce on “declining volume.” “I do not see how RE prices could rise on declining volume, so I do not think this can happen in RE.”

I think that’s a pretty narrow definition of “dead cat bounce.” And, while (in the trading world) that term may technically only apply to an upward bounce on declining volume, I think that, when used by most people when discussing real estate, it means something more along the lines of: “a short-lived upward bounce in consumer sentiment and possibly prices and sales volume after which the longer-term, downward trend in all three of those areas continues.”

Whether what we’re experiencing now qualifies as that kind of dead cat bounce remains to be seen.

[poorgradstudent]

The number of raw sales should go up in the Spring.

So should the number of listings, and the inventory. Prices will continue to fall, which will keep a modest turnover going.

[BuyerWillEPB]

“I believe that only about 8% of the rest of the decline is going to show in real value, meaning where you actually see the price decline and the papers report it. The rest of the decline will be assumed through the fact that housing prices will not increase at the rate of inflation…”
————————–

Now that’s a much more reasonable guesstimate. I think it the process will be a mix of of what Cow Tipping and LostCat said.

The main driving force of this “collapse” or “correction” will be the tried and true FUNDAMENTALS. That means how much people earn, not how much Loan they can scam into.

[no_such_reality]

Yes, and all of those government-paid highway workers will be buying $700K houses in La Costa.

Ahem, you may wish to educate yourself. A member of the California Correctional Officer Union (31,000 of them, guards, probation officers, have an average base pay of $65,000, with overtime, 1 in 5 makes over $100,000.

The San Dieguito School District that serves La Costa has an average teacher salary of $68,000.

A government worker family of a teacher and correctional officer will have a family incomee above $133,000 and possibly over $168,000.

At today’s interest rates being near historical lows, that government worker family can afford that La Costa home.

Fire, Police, city workers, all of their union contracts are equally out of whack.

[Author]

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