lowest price drop vol. 3 — at last, the rollercoaster is headed doooowowwwnnnnn

[mrquoi]

I’ve been really busy the past few weeks, but here’s an overdue update on the lowest price 3 br, detatched house in various areas of San Diego that interest me. I’m also using the low number on those stupid value ranges because it amuses me that Realtors still think that game will work in the coming market.

Yep! Price drops just about everywhere in town! We’ve finally sunk under $400K in Mira Mesa, Poway, and, yes, lovely Imperial Beach! And under $500K in UCT! Whoo hooo!

June 13 — June 20 — August 7

Mira Mesa (92126) $435,000 — no change — $399,000
Sorrento Valley (92121) $615,000 — $565,000 — $699,000
UTC (92122) $535,000 — no change — $499,900
Mission Hills (92103) $575,000 — no change — $550,000
North Park (92104) $434,900 — $600,000 — $434,900
La Jolla (92037) $740,000 — $850,000 — $850,000
Solano Beach (92075) $839,000 — no change — $819,000
Cardiff (92007) $595,000 — no change — $535,000
Encinitas (92024) $575,000 — $574,900 — $578,000
Poway (92064) $419,000 — no change — 399,900
Imperial Beach (91932) 425,000 — no change — $395,000
Coronado, (92118) 1,040,000 — no change — no change
Pacific Beach (92109) $669,000 — no change — $600,000
Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mtn. Ranch (92128 ) $500K — $350,000 — no change
Del Mar (92014) $899K — no change — $859,000
Carlsbad (92009) $499K — no change — $549,000
Claremont (92117) $485K — $420,000 — no change

new!

Carmel Valley (92130) — $569,000

[PerryChase]

We can debate the downturn all we want but there’s nothing like looking at the listings to see the down market.

I have some searches saved on zip realty. There were few results last year but now I see inventory added all the time. One example is Downtown SD for under $299k. The prices are lowered yet they sit and sit… If they are such good deals, why are they not moving?

The professor predicted 25% down from the peak. I see listings already 15% down(in today’s supposedly ‘stable’ market) but with no takers. So in my mind 25% drop is too conservative. I know that a few examples don’t reflect the whole market. But since so many listings already reflect 15% drop, I can imagine that it will only get worse as the statistics reflect the beginning of a downturn.

[speedingpullet]

Amazing!

How can La Jolla, Encinitas and Carlsbad still be going up?

[PD]

Some are going up because sellers are still in denial. These are asking prices, not sales prices. I think some of the unchanged cities are interesting. For instance the lowest SFR in Coronodo is the same price and I assume it is the same house – and not selling.
Thanks for the info!

[no_such_reality]

That’s easy, it’s just asking price.

I saw that in another thread on here yesterday. link

Basically, there’s a big split in what’s being asked, what they’re getting and and even bigger split between what’s bought, pending to be bought and what didn’t sell.

[powayseller]

It could also be sparse data. If you have only a couple houses listed at 3 bedrooms, any change could just be noise. Maybe the more expensive house this month has better views, more upgrades, is newer, better location.

These are list prices, not sale prices. Sale prices are not completely accurate if they hide closing costs or other incentives.

I think San Diego Market Monitor and ocrenter’s lists are the most accurate, because they show the prices of the *same* house over time.

[speaker]

Just shooting from the hip here:
I think the prices are remaining flat or somewhat stable in Norht County because they have a lot of newer, big homes that have more flexibility in their prices. Aviara/La Costa in Carlsbad and Encinitas Ranch in, well, Encinitas (I know, duh).

Anyway, what I see in my neck of the woods is newer homes (1999 and on) selling next to much older homes (1975 – 80) but they are selling in the same range (750k – 1 mil). Those older homes have to drop in price sooner rather than later.

“End of line.”

[mrquoi]

My totally unsubstantiated theory on why the lowest-priced dump in some areas have edged up a little is also that there is still a healthy supply of GFs driven by bossy spouses trying to get in before school starts. Not as many people have a loved one clamoring to commit their life savings to an IB or Mira Mesa fixer.

But I know there are probably FSBOs out there that are less. We picked up a flyer from a FSBO in Encinitas in May that was $620K. Just recently I ran across it on Zip and it was priced at $670K — as if raising the price to cover the Realtor fees would sell it. Duh.

[JES]

In our neighborhood of 15 YO homes in Encinitas there are approx 4 homes for sale. One was listed for 4 months, was reduced, and finally sold. Another is now reduced after 4-5 months. Other tow are newer listings.

[CardiffBaseball]

I started tracking inventory and reductions on Zip for Cardiff and Encinitas yesterday. So my data points are no good but maybe in a month or so.

I have seen houses sit for a long time in my area. One came down from 1,350,000, a year ago to 949,000 and still it sits burning cash unoccupied. I think if she drops to 850,000 she might generate some interest.

[Author]

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