Loony Buyers

[cyphire]

Hi Rustico, et al.

Hey – I think that the good long term strategy is to wait at least 2 more years, if not 3. 2010-2012 is the target for me, the only problem is that the kids are 11 and 13, and I don’t want to wait till they are 15 and 17. It’s a tough deal, but we aren’t exactly unhappy where we are renting in La Jolla.

Still it’s nice to own your own home, I am just too risk adverse to buy a long term asset in the midst of all this turmoil. I guess I need to wait it out…

I am concerned, however, at the statistics which currently exist in the market. When my wife sees that prices have stayed even since this time last year (in coastal central where I am), it’s tough to keep explaining about medians and that mostly the good properties are selling, not the dogs, which were overpaid for.

I would love to see a good local analysis on a property by property basis. I also know it’s hard to actually find out about the secret stuff – the new kitchens, the paying points for the buyer, and if the foreclosure sales are even considered in the regular numbers.

Where are the good price / sq. ft numbers? The removal of the 4M$+ properties (which are in another sphere from us), etc? I am still haunted by a lack of hard data, a lack of analysis, and a dearth of reporting numbers which are superficial at best.

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire –

The local analysis is a good idea. As you indicated, getting information on credits for repairs, closing costs, etc is hard to do. However you can fudge a number in and keep it uniform for all of the properties you look at. Given the part of town you are in, MLS stuff would give you a pretty good swag as the number of non MLS sold homes tends to go down in higher median areas. You can ask any local realtor to dig for you and start sending you individual solds in your target area and you can start to compile ppsf numbers along with other statistics. You can even go to sdlookup and other sites to gather the information. I think other stats like market time, and whether each listing had previously been listed may be useful as well to get a measure of how motivated was the seller to price the home to sell.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire –

The local analysis is a good idea. As you indicated, getting information on credits for repairs, closing costs, etc is hard to do. However you can fudge a number in and keep it uniform for all of the properties you look at. Given the part of town you are in, MLS stuff would give you a pretty good swag as the number of non MLS sold homes tends to go down in higher median areas. You can ask any local realtor to dig for you and start sending you individual solds in your target area and you can start to compile ppsf numbers along with other statistics. You can even go to sdlookup and other sites to gather the information. I think other stats like market time, and whether each listing had previously been listed may be useful as well to get a measure of how motivated was the seller to price the home to sell.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire –

The local analysis is a good idea. As you indicated, getting information on credits for repairs, closing costs, etc is hard to do. However you can fudge a number in and keep it uniform for all of the properties you look at. Given the part of town you are in, MLS stuff would give you a pretty good swag as the number of non MLS sold homes tends to go down in higher median areas. You can ask any local realtor to dig for you and start sending you individual solds in your target area and you can start to compile ppsf numbers along with other statistics. You can even go to sdlookup and other sites to gather the information. I think other stats like market time, and whether each listing had previously been listed may be useful as well to get a measure of how motivated was the seller to price the home to sell.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire –

The local analysis is a good idea. As you indicated, getting information on credits for repairs, closing costs, etc is hard to do. However you can fudge a number in and keep it uniform for all of the properties you look at. Given the part of town you are in, MLS stuff would give you a pretty good swag as the number of non MLS sold homes tends to go down in higher median areas. You can ask any local realtor to dig for you and start sending you individual solds in your target area and you can start to compile ppsf numbers along with other statistics. You can even go to sdlookup and other sites to gather the information. I think other stats like market time, and whether each listing had previously been listed may be useful as well to get a measure of how motivated was the seller to price the home to sell.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire –

The local analysis is a good idea. As you indicated, getting information on credits for repairs, closing costs, etc is hard to do. However you can fudge a number in and keep it uniform for all of the properties you look at. Given the part of town you are in, MLS stuff would give you a pretty good swag as the number of non MLS sold homes tends to go down in higher median areas. You can ask any local realtor to dig for you and start sending you individual solds in your target area and you can start to compile ppsf numbers along with other statistics. You can even go to sdlookup and other sites to gather the information. I think other stats like market time, and whether each listing had previously been listed may be useful as well to get a measure of how motivated was the seller to price the home to sell.

SD Realtor

[cyphire]

Thanks for the comment SD Realtor… But what I was really driving at was the lack of proper data currently in the marketplace. Literally nothing the newspapers print has any real basis in fundamentals or reality. The statistics they quote are given by Realtors, or economists, none of who are really doing a full analysis. Median prices, ignoring all the other factors, and a manipulated system of days on market, comps and appraisals. It takes sites like this one (which have a limited audience) to even get close to the truth.

The public has no reasonable way of monitoring the housing market, it is not an efficient market as the transaction costs (realtors, and other closing costs) are so high as to create a market which is unlike almost any other. It’s happening too slowly, but the transaction costs need to be dramatically lowered, which will then put real pressure to only have quality real estate professionals in the business as there will be much less pie to slop around.

[cyphire]

Thanks for the comment SD Realtor… But what I was really driving at was the lack of proper data currently in the marketplace. Literally nothing the newspapers print has any real basis in fundamentals or reality. The statistics they quote are given by Realtors, or economists, none of who are really doing a full analysis. Median prices, ignoring all the other factors, and a manipulated system of days on market, comps and appraisals. It takes sites like this one (which have a limited audience) to even get close to the truth.

The public has no reasonable way of monitoring the housing market, it is not an efficient market as the transaction costs (realtors, and other closing costs) are so high as to create a market which is unlike almost any other. It’s happening too slowly, but the transaction costs need to be dramatically lowered, which will then put real pressure to only have quality real estate professionals in the business as there will be much less pie to slop around.

[cyphire]

Thanks for the comment SD Realtor… But what I was really driving at was the lack of proper data currently in the marketplace. Literally nothing the newspapers print has any real basis in fundamentals or reality. The statistics they quote are given by Realtors, or economists, none of who are really doing a full analysis. Median prices, ignoring all the other factors, and a manipulated system of days on market, comps and appraisals. It takes sites like this one (which have a limited audience) to even get close to the truth.

The public has no reasonable way of monitoring the housing market, it is not an efficient market as the transaction costs (realtors, and other closing costs) are so high as to create a market which is unlike almost any other. It’s happening too slowly, but the transaction costs need to be dramatically lowered, which will then put real pressure to only have quality real estate professionals in the business as there will be much less pie to slop around.

[cyphire]

Thanks for the comment SD Realtor… But what I was really driving at was the lack of proper data currently in the marketplace. Literally nothing the newspapers print has any real basis in fundamentals or reality. The statistics they quote are given by Realtors, or economists, none of who are really doing a full analysis. Median prices, ignoring all the other factors, and a manipulated system of days on market, comps and appraisals. It takes sites like this one (which have a limited audience) to even get close to the truth.

The public has no reasonable way of monitoring the housing market, it is not an efficient market as the transaction costs (realtors, and other closing costs) are so high as to create a market which is unlike almost any other. It’s happening too slowly, but the transaction costs need to be dramatically lowered, which will then put real pressure to only have quality real estate professionals in the business as there will be much less pie to slop around.

[cyphire]

Thanks for the comment SD Realtor… But what I was really driving at was the lack of proper data currently in the marketplace. Literally nothing the newspapers print has any real basis in fundamentals or reality. The statistics they quote are given by Realtors, or economists, none of who are really doing a full analysis. Median prices, ignoring all the other factors, and a manipulated system of days on market, comps and appraisals. It takes sites like this one (which have a limited audience) to even get close to the truth.

The public has no reasonable way of monitoring the housing market, it is not an efficient market as the transaction costs (realtors, and other closing costs) are so high as to create a market which is unlike almost any other. It’s happening too slowly, but the transaction costs need to be dramatically lowered, which will then put real pressure to only have quality real estate professionals in the business as there will be much less pie to slop around.

[SD Realtor]

I see what you are getting at. I do not see any of that changing much. Transaction costs are your choice to participate in or not. You don’t need to be represented as a buyer and if you are a seller you can FSBO a home. Nobody is twisting your arm. Closing costs for the buyers side are dominated by financing.

Actually I disagree with the statement about transaction costs will lead to only quality realtors staying in the profession. I think quite the opposite will happen. I consider myself top notch, yet even at the steeped discount I give buyers and low commissions for sellers, if I didn’t have an engineering profession it would be highly speculative whether I would stay in this one.

It just is not worth it.

I am not saying there is alot of slop in the industry because that is a true statment. However alot of the fat has been trimmed and will continue to do so. Similarly friends and families of realtors will continue to work with those same realtors because that is the way it was, the way it is, and how it will always be.

Actually any John Q public can get county records on any home they want, including how many mortgages have been on that home, etc… There is plenty out there but it is a royal pain to get at it. Also what is not made public is credits made for repairs or any other sellers concessions.

Note that all of these shortcomings also apply to new housing bought.

I take a blind eye to all stats in any newspaper and mag. I keep it contained to the nieghborhood I am interested in and focus on that area. I sincerely doubt that any dramatic changes in the way transaction costs are levied will change pricing of real estate in any substantial manner. Yes I will be the first one to agree the model stinks right now but you are empowered to not have to participate in it while finding yourself a home or selling a home.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I see what you are getting at. I do not see any of that changing much. Transaction costs are your choice to participate in or not. You don’t need to be represented as a buyer and if you are a seller you can FSBO a home. Nobody is twisting your arm. Closing costs for the buyers side are dominated by financing.

Actually I disagree with the statement about transaction costs will lead to only quality realtors staying in the profession. I think quite the opposite will happen. I consider myself top notch, yet even at the steeped discount I give buyers and low commissions for sellers, if I didn’t have an engineering profession it would be highly speculative whether I would stay in this one.

It just is not worth it.

I am not saying there is alot of slop in the industry because that is a true statment. However alot of the fat has been trimmed and will continue to do so. Similarly friends and families of realtors will continue to work with those same realtors because that is the way it was, the way it is, and how it will always be.

Actually any John Q public can get county records on any home they want, including how many mortgages have been on that home, etc… There is plenty out there but it is a royal pain to get at it. Also what is not made public is credits made for repairs or any other sellers concessions.

Note that all of these shortcomings also apply to new housing bought.

I take a blind eye to all stats in any newspaper and mag. I keep it contained to the nieghborhood I am interested in and focus on that area. I sincerely doubt that any dramatic changes in the way transaction costs are levied will change pricing of real estate in any substantial manner. Yes I will be the first one to agree the model stinks right now but you are empowered to not have to participate in it while finding yourself a home or selling a home.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I see what you are getting at. I do not see any of that changing much. Transaction costs are your choice to participate in or not. You don’t need to be represented as a buyer and if you are a seller you can FSBO a home. Nobody is twisting your arm. Closing costs for the buyers side are dominated by financing.

Actually I disagree with the statement about transaction costs will lead to only quality realtors staying in the profession. I think quite the opposite will happen. I consider myself top notch, yet even at the steeped discount I give buyers and low commissions for sellers, if I didn’t have an engineering profession it would be highly speculative whether I would stay in this one.

It just is not worth it.

I am not saying there is alot of slop in the industry because that is a true statment. However alot of the fat has been trimmed and will continue to do so. Similarly friends and families of realtors will continue to work with those same realtors because that is the way it was, the way it is, and how it will always be.

Actually any John Q public can get county records on any home they want, including how many mortgages have been on that home, etc… There is plenty out there but it is a royal pain to get at it. Also what is not made public is credits made for repairs or any other sellers concessions.

Note that all of these shortcomings also apply to new housing bought.

I take a blind eye to all stats in any newspaper and mag. I keep it contained to the nieghborhood I am interested in and focus on that area. I sincerely doubt that any dramatic changes in the way transaction costs are levied will change pricing of real estate in any substantial manner. Yes I will be the first one to agree the model stinks right now but you are empowered to not have to participate in it while finding yourself a home or selling a home.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I see what you are getting at. I do not see any of that changing much. Transaction costs are your choice to participate in or not. You don’t need to be represented as a buyer and if you are a seller you can FSBO a home. Nobody is twisting your arm. Closing costs for the buyers side are dominated by financing.

Actually I disagree with the statement about transaction costs will lead to only quality realtors staying in the profession. I think quite the opposite will happen. I consider myself top notch, yet even at the steeped discount I give buyers and low commissions for sellers, if I didn’t have an engineering profession it would be highly speculative whether I would stay in this one.

It just is not worth it.

I am not saying there is alot of slop in the industry because that is a true statment. However alot of the fat has been trimmed and will continue to do so. Similarly friends and families of realtors will continue to work with those same realtors because that is the way it was, the way it is, and how it will always be.

Actually any John Q public can get county records on any home they want, including how many mortgages have been on that home, etc… There is plenty out there but it is a royal pain to get at it. Also what is not made public is credits made for repairs or any other sellers concessions.

Note that all of these shortcomings also apply to new housing bought.

I take a blind eye to all stats in any newspaper and mag. I keep it contained to the nieghborhood I am interested in and focus on that area. I sincerely doubt that any dramatic changes in the way transaction costs are levied will change pricing of real estate in any substantial manner. Yes I will be the first one to agree the model stinks right now but you are empowered to not have to participate in it while finding yourself a home or selling a home.

SD Realtor

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