Lol, Party Like is 1999..

[spdrun]

^^^ “Punchbowls” only have limited effect … if they were great for ecahhhhhhnamies, Europe and Japan would be growing at 20% per year.

[The-Shoveler]

Japan is an interesting case, the main reason for lack of growth is labor shortage and population decline, but the people there live a fairly high standard of living.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I was at a free stock seminar yesterday and I heard two things I thought were interesting.

1) The US FED was quietly keeping Europe banks and Deutsche bank particularly solvent by injecting 50 billion dollars “per-day” (already exceeding all the 2008-9 bail out over the last year). (not sure the above is true “it was a free seminar lol” but I thought it interesting).

2) The brokers have not completely figured out how to make money with free trading yet.

IMO No one seems interested in pulling the punch bowl away yet.[/quote]

I’m thinking we’ll keep kicking the can down the road as long as we can..that’s why I’m not entirely convinced moving to cash is a right decision. One foot in, one foot out. Maybe I’ll buy another property, lol

who cases if property values correct a bit. It was bought with funny money stock market gains anyway. at least property is tangible.

[svelte]

I’ve been almost completely stock for a long long time, it served me well. Yeah it hurt in the downturns but more than made up for it on the upswings. And I knew it would be decades before I needed the $$ anyway.

Now that retirement is inching closer, I’ve started listening the 401k mgt nags saying I’m being too risky, so I moved 10% to stable/bonds and then another 10%.

Still for the year i’m up about 20% last I checked so I’m doing good…not as good as I would have been 100% stock. 🙁

My theory is that the only time I would really need the money is if two things happened: (1) I lost my job, and (2) because I’m now in my 50s I had a hard time finding another.

And that definitely could happen. If it did, I’d hate to be all stock with the stock market down, which is why I stashed 20% stable/bonds – to hold me through any need while the market is down.

I’m now wishing I had went with 10-15% as that would have been wiser. That could last me few years until the market recovered. So on the next downswing, I’ll probably move from 20 to 10-15% stable/bonds and hope I can get that lost money (in my mind) back. That’s the plan anyway.

I stay heavy US stocks and light international. My 401k system complains at me about that, but every time – every time! – I’ve had a significant amount in international I’ve got burned. Even waiting years for it to come back, I’ve still been burned. Tired of that.

I’m on track for meeting the amount of $$ I want at retirement so I’m doing good. I’ve recently wished I had set a higher target (no good reason for that, just the way my mind works) but then it dawned on me that when I set the original goal I had factored in a 4% yearly inflation rate which we haven’t hit in quite a long time…so looking at it from that perspective I really am above my target!

Mind games.

[Coronita]

Interesting perspective.

[Coronita]

Lol. These Wall Street “Analysts” are so full of shet, it’s laughable. A few years ago, all these “experts” were rating AMD at a sell when the stock price was $3.50-$4/share, and many were saying they would be going bankrupt soon.

That $4/share share turned into $10-15/share when Ryzen 1xxx series came out. The analyts then said it was still a sell and the stock was going to cave back down to $5/share. Then Epyc Rome came out… Then the stock jumped to the $20ies… The analysts then said the stock was a hold at $15/share….Then Ryzen 2xxx series came out… Then the stock went to the $30ies…. Then Ryzen2 3xxx series came out Epyc Rome came out that trounces Intel server solutions at half the cost, and Naples GPU that can hold weight against Nvidia, all on 7nm while Intel is still stuck on 14nm+++++++++ And now that the stock is at a ridiculous $40/share with a P/E of 212, all the analysts are changing their tune and putting all this analysis data on why this stock is close to a $50/share stock and it’s suddenly a “buy”

Really?

Morale of the story. Analysts have no idea what they are doing and all those fancy data/charts they use to back up their stock price assertions is just selective picking of data to get the data to “fit” the assertions, regardless of how ridiculous those assertions are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ac3b08e1-2b85-355a-9c2d-37f06fc1bcb2/amd-stock-gets-another-higher.html

I’m sorry, this is the most absurd thing imaginable.
Why not just set the price target at $100/share and be done with it. I wouldn’t mind. Also, I have to admit, I do enjoy watching short sellers get their asses kicked… bigtime.

[Myriad]

Right, then when AMD doesn’t meet their “new” expectations, they’ll say it’s valuation got ahead of it’s earnings, and issue “Hold”s…

There’s an interesting aspect that with Indexes >50% of AUM, certain non-index stocks are under-priced. I guess if you can figure out which ones would be added, might make for a good arbitrage opportunity.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t know, seems like dumb money is finally joining the party and then there is this coronavirus thing.

We will see I guess.

[The-Shoveler]

Wow, Glad I pulled out of the market just after posting the above.

They are having bank runs in India !!

[Coronita]

I can’t believe oil is around $30/share. Shale oil is screwed, lol.

[an]

So, who shorted the market 2-3 how ago?

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu]I can’t believe oil is around $30/share. Shale oil is screwed, lol.[/quote]

Is there a thread on peak oil and inflation for dumpster diver to resurrect?

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]So, who shorted the market 2-3 how ago?[/quote]

Not me. But you know what I’m thinking? I’m looking at companies that facilitate “working from home or school”…

One thing I am thinking that this virus will do is that it will force people to stay indoors more. Bad news for entertainment like cruises, movies theaters, etc, but maybe not so bad new for technology, because somehow technology will need to make it easier for people to work from home or collaborate at home, and while we have the standard companies like slack, zoom, etc that helps us get us there..barely…., it’s nowhere where it needs to be to be effective.

My company already has a remote friendly policy, and I’ve already hired people out of Florida and Mexico City because it was cheaper and more cost effective than hiring someone here in San Diego, and so we’ve already spent a lot of time and money investing in remote workers, and even then, there’s still a lot of gaps to fill for remote workers. I think this virus will make it even more important, because not it’s not just for employees you hire offsight, or offshore. Now it could actually be used for even local employees. And that also begs the question, in an expensive commericial real estate market like SD, do we really need to maintain a very large 300+ person office, if say 60-70% of the employees are working from home or working offsite? It’s a question that we’ve been asking ourselves, maybe we can cut our office space in half and save a lot of money.

So I’m actually looking at companies that can facility all this “working from home”, especially since now that everyone is panicking, it might be a good idea to pick up some of these companies.

I think this virus might actually give a kick and change the way we work, even a lot of old school companies that use to have remote “unfriendly” company policies.

[spdrun]

Long outdoor equipment companies … oil prices at record lows for car travel and hiking/nature are seen as “safe” because they don’t involve sitting or standing in a crowd.

[Coronita]

Well, I’m just saying something as simple as this.

When you’re in an office together, it’s easy to have a “whiteboard” discussion.

But try doing that with 20-30 people all working remotely. We’ve got it down I think. Same thing could be said for a classroom. Sure, it might be easy for a math class or something that isn’t very interactive, but how would you do this with a lab class, or something with a lot of discussion? I’d really like to see a company that previous had a very remote-unfriendly environment now forced to allow employees to work from home and also be nearly as effective.

Fortunately it’s not a problem from our company, because many of directors/vps (inclusive) already decided that in order to augment highly skilled workers (especially in mobile) we have no choice. Either spend a boatload of money poaching great mobile guys from the limited supply in san diego or bay area, or spend a less on very highly skilled people in lower cost areas in the U.S. without relocating the entire operations there. So you pay someone in Florida about the same as SD, and they’ll be happy employees because no one else in the same area pays nearly as much. Also, I have a lot of people that requested moving to the midwest where it’s cheaper to live and so they can start a family or for personal reasons. I’ve approved them all subject to a 90 day “try before I commit to this being permanent” policy. So some guy in the midwest is basically making 30-35% above his peers over there and home prices are 1/3 the cost in SD with flexibility as long as he gets his work done…. He’s not going to give me reasons to dismiss him. I think I went against a lot of senior management doing this, and had a lot of eyebrows raised, some warned me I might get fired for doing this. That was 6 months ago. I never missed a deadline, others have.. I think everyone else is pretty much doing the same thing now…

[Author]

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