Lehman Brothers PUT help request to the gurus

[newbiz]

I am seeking some assitance from the investing gurus on the board.

I am looking at Lehman Brothers and am hoping for a Bears like situation comming down the road.

When I checked my brokargae account I see three options for puts at strike rate of 30$ – LEH is currently trading at 30.52, I am hoping that it will crash and burn and dro to under 10. Guess diring some koolaid.

the put options are
symbol – days to expiry – bid price
+LYHRF – 19 days to expiry – 3.35
+LYHSF – 45 days to expiry – 4.15
+LYHVF – 136 days to expirt – 5.40

Looking for an opinion, a recomendation and any other suggestions
1) In your opinion, will LEH drop below 25$ in 19/45/136 days
2) If I am going to buy the puts – which one would you recommend of the three listed above
3) Would you suggest any other way of shorting LEH other than Puts

Thank you

[j]

Lehman has failed and needs to be acquired like Bear Stearns, but there will not be an overnight price drop like Bear. The Fed has changed the rules since Bear failed, allowing Lehman access to the Fed window. Lehman can barrow money by putting up its worthless paper as collateral, so taxpayers will prop up Lehman stock to some extent.

[j]

Lehman has failed and needs to be acquired like Bear Stearns, but there will not be an overnight price drop like Bear. The Fed has changed the rules since Bear failed, allowing Lehman access to the Fed window. Lehman can barrow money by putting up its worthless paper as collateral, so taxpayers will prop up Lehman stock to some extent.

[j]

Lehman has failed and needs to be acquired like Bear Stearns, but there will not be an overnight price drop like Bear. The Fed has changed the rules since Bear failed, allowing Lehman access to the Fed window. Lehman can barrow money by putting up its worthless paper as collateral, so taxpayers will prop up Lehman stock to some extent.

[j]

Lehman has failed and needs to be acquired like Bear Stearns, but there will not be an overnight price drop like Bear. The Fed has changed the rules since Bear failed, allowing Lehman access to the Fed window. Lehman can barrow money by putting up its worthless paper as collateral, so taxpayers will prop up Lehman stock to some extent.

[j]

Lehman has failed and needs to be acquired like Bear Stearns, but there will not be an overnight price drop like Bear. The Fed has changed the rules since Bear failed, allowing Lehman access to the Fed window. Lehman can barrow money by putting up its worthless paper as collateral, so taxpayers will prop up Lehman stock to some extent.

[barnaby33]

I partially agree with J, the Fed definitely changed the rules. That being said, LEH has serious problems. The real problem though is that their books, and almost everyone else’s are so jam packed with fraud its impossible to know if they are tits up or not.

What you are betting on with LEH is a run on the bank. I have some Kaputs I bought when Bear went tits up and am still underwater on them. I’ll hold till expiration because I think there is a good chance a run will start on LEH, even a small one could be enough to spook the shareholders into panic selling.

Remember the Fed didn’t bail out the equity holders, it mostly bailed out the debt holders.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I partially agree with J, the Fed definitely changed the rules. That being said, LEH has serious problems. The real problem though is that their books, and almost everyone else’s are so jam packed with fraud its impossible to know if they are tits up or not.

What you are betting on with LEH is a run on the bank. I have some Kaputs I bought when Bear went tits up and am still underwater on them. I’ll hold till expiration because I think there is a good chance a run will start on LEH, even a small one could be enough to spook the shareholders into panic selling.

Remember the Fed didn’t bail out the equity holders, it mostly bailed out the debt holders.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I partially agree with J, the Fed definitely changed the rules. That being said, LEH has serious problems. The real problem though is that their books, and almost everyone else’s are so jam packed with fraud its impossible to know if they are tits up or not.

What you are betting on with LEH is a run on the bank. I have some Kaputs I bought when Bear went tits up and am still underwater on them. I’ll hold till expiration because I think there is a good chance a run will start on LEH, even a small one could be enough to spook the shareholders into panic selling.

Remember the Fed didn’t bail out the equity holders, it mostly bailed out the debt holders.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I partially agree with J, the Fed definitely changed the rules. That being said, LEH has serious problems. The real problem though is that their books, and almost everyone else’s are so jam packed with fraud its impossible to know if they are tits up or not.

What you are betting on with LEH is a run on the bank. I have some Kaputs I bought when Bear went tits up and am still underwater on them. I’ll hold till expiration because I think there is a good chance a run will start on LEH, even a small one could be enough to spook the shareholders into panic selling.

Remember the Fed didn’t bail out the equity holders, it mostly bailed out the debt holders.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I partially agree with J, the Fed definitely changed the rules. That being said, LEH has serious problems. The real problem though is that their books, and almost everyone else’s are so jam packed with fraud its impossible to know if they are tits up or not.

What you are betting on with LEH is a run on the bank. I have some Kaputs I bought when Bear went tits up and am still underwater on them. I’ll hold till expiration because I think there is a good chance a run will start on LEH, even a small one could be enough to spook the shareholders into panic selling.

Remember the Fed didn’t bail out the equity holders, it mostly bailed out the debt holders.

Josh

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