Left San Diego

[EconProf]

My previous forum topic, Leaving San Diego, got too long and unwieldy, so here is an update after two months of living in the St. George area that sticks to real estate investing.
We are in escrow to buy two side-by side condos for $335,000 each. 3 Br, 2 Ba, double garage, 20 years old, single story, great walkable neighborhood. Rents $1500 each–could be higher, but with these are long-term tenants so I will not raise for a year. On a monthly basis, HOA is $150, property tax $80 (under CA’s vaunted Prop 13 would be about 1 1/4%/ year or $300).
Both rents and prices are jumping between 12-18% per year due to the influx of people, especially from CA.

[Anonymous]

Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

[Coronita]

[quote]We are in escrow to buy two side-by side condos for $335,000 each. 3 Br, 2 Ba, double garage,
[/quote]

What’s the AGI of your average tenant pool there?

$1500/month on 335k rental, that’s like 5% before cost… Not necessary better than here in SD.

For comparison. San Diego Mira Mesa 1/1 condo is $330k and rent is around $1850+/month now. And you only need to deal with 1-2 people tenant and someone with an AGI of $90-100k/year at least before RSU/stock/bonus.

So I wouldn’t say this is a huge advantage in UT from a cash flow perspective.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..[/quote]

That is debatable and unproven but the point is don’t count on an endless stream of CA emigrants to keep propping up the housing prices in St. George UT. If/When this current housing bubble crashes, places like St George UT are going to take it extra hard in the rear.

[sdrealtor]

Here comes the Permabear who missed the opportunity of his lifetime bringing the bubble talk again already disproven over and over by Rich

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..[/quote]

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I’m not saying it’s not true, I’m just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I’ve seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that’s not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Here comes the Permabear who missed the opportunity of his lifetime bringing the bubble talk again already disproven over and over by Rich[/quote]

Here you go again with your realtor nonsense. Only a realtor or used car salesmen would use BS cliches like “opportunity of a lifetime”.
Go ahead and believe we are not in a bubble. Ignore all the signs around you.

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..[/quote]

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I’m not saying it’s not true, I’m just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I’ve seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that’s not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)[/quote]

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..[/quote]

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I’m not saying it’s not true, I’m just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I’ve seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that’s not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)[/quote]

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.[/quote]

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear ‘s anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words “taking it in the rear extra hard”

[sdrealtor]

[img_assist|nid=27386|title=Home Buying Opportunities over our lifetimes|desc=Some from time to time I kid our resident permabears that they missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Last week I was on my weekly call with a SoCal housing economist who posted this. It actually covers homebuying over our lifetimes. Hard to argue that buying a home around 2009 to 2012 was not the opportunity of lifetime looking at this. Also the increase in the median income is a bit stunning|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=73]

I didn’t say it is the opportunity of a lifetime. I’m not selling anything here. I said it was the opportunity of a lifetime. If this wasn’t what was the opportunity of our lifetime?

As for a bubble. Rich has covered that on the main page with data ad infinitum

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear ‘s anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words “taking it in the rear extra hard”[/quote]

I’m not believing either version until someone puts up real data. (I’m also not saying either is wrong without data to disprove one side or the other. I’m just asking if there is real data. And btw, that question hardly seems like justification for the two of you to piss on each other. But I guess to each his own.)

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.[/quote]

We’ve gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..[/quote]

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I’m not saying it’s not true, I’m just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I’ve seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that’s not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)[/quote]

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.[/quote]

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear ‘s anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words “taking it in the rear extra hard”[/quote]

Not sure what you are arguing here SDR other than just trying to be a dick which is what you do. But since life is so great for you in your wonderful tract home utopia of NCC, why does it bother you so much when anyone on here mentions bubbles or crashes? That is kind of what this site is really about. People don’t need to come on here for RE cheerleading, they can get that anywhere. I’ll bet this site had at least 10x more traffic back in the bubble hey days in the late 2000s. That’s what people are interested in, crashes and train wrecks. Your anecdotes about who is buying homes in your neighborhood, or what you heard from a friend of a friend are utterly boring.

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear ‘s anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words “taking it in the rear extra hard”[/quote]

I’m not believing either version until someone puts up real data. (I’m also not saying either is wrong without data to disprove one side or the other. I’m just asking if there is real data. And btw, that question hardly seems like justification for the two of you to piss on each other. But I guess to each his own.)[/quote]

I have offered data, Case Shiller in fact, to prove that RE prices are on fire all over the country, from San Diego to Phoenix to St George UT to Bozeman Mt. That is evidence that the cause of this phenomenon can’t simply be “everyone wants to live in San Diego” or “Californians are all leaving to go to St George UT or Bozeman MT”.
On the contrary, the reason is a global financial bubble cause by the Fed buying everything.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[sdrealtor]

Not cheerleading.. Was referring to missed opportunity. Not cheerleading. Reporting on what I see. I’d be much happier if prices went down. They aren’t.

No one is saying prices aren’t up everywhere either. We are just taking about places where they are up much more than the averages.

If you want averages, buy index funds and call it day. We are trying to beat the averages not complain about what we can’t control

[Author]

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