Kudos to Rich

[Bugs]

The other correction is that Rich didn’t limit himself to a 25% number – he referred to the market returning to the long term trendlines, which at peak was a lot farther than the 25%.

In my view that makes him even more right. Kudos.

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[ltokuda]

Rich, thank you very much for creating this site. There’s so much mis-information floating around and being passed off as “common knowledge” that its very easy for people to get confused. I used to be one of those confused individuals. I had a feeling (back in 2003) that we were in a real estate bubble, but couldn’t get my head around all the conflicting information. The issue remained very hazy for me until I stumbled onto your site (in 2005) and read the Bubble Primer. That was the key. The Primer didn’t try to simply tell me what to believe. Instead, it provided me with the data and the analysis to discern what information was true and what information was false. Clarity, at last!

I got married in the summer of 2006 and decided not to buy a house just yet. I could have made a huge financial blunder back then but this site helped me to forsee the housing crash to come.

I’m currently renting a house that I love in a location that I love for much cheaper than it would cost to buy. Eventually, when the price is right, I’ll buy a house. Thanks to you, I’ll have a better understanding of when the price is “right” for me.

[ltokuda]

Rich, thank you very much for creating this site. There’s so much mis-information floating around and being passed off as “common knowledge” that its very easy for people to get confused. I used to be one of those confused individuals. I had a feeling (back in 2003) that we were in a real estate bubble, but couldn’t get my head around all the conflicting information. The issue remained very hazy for me until I stumbled onto your site (in 2005) and read the Bubble Primer. That was the key. The Primer didn’t try to simply tell me what to believe. Instead, it provided me with the data and the analysis to discern what information was true and what information was false. Clarity, at last!

I got married in the summer of 2006 and decided not to buy a house just yet. I could have made a huge financial blunder back then but this site helped me to forsee the housing crash to come.

I’m currently renting a house that I love in a location that I love for much cheaper than it would cost to buy. Eventually, when the price is right, I’ll buy a house. Thanks to you, I’ll have a better understanding of when the price is “right” for me.

[ltokuda]

Rich, thank you very much for creating this site. There’s so much mis-information floating around and being passed off as “common knowledge” that its very easy for people to get confused. I used to be one of those confused individuals. I had a feeling (back in 2003) that we were in a real estate bubble, but couldn’t get my head around all the conflicting information. The issue remained very hazy for me until I stumbled onto your site (in 2005) and read the Bubble Primer. That was the key. The Primer didn’t try to simply tell me what to believe. Instead, it provided me with the data and the analysis to discern what information was true and what information was false. Clarity, at last!

I got married in the summer of 2006 and decided not to buy a house just yet. I could have made a huge financial blunder back then but this site helped me to forsee the housing crash to come.

I’m currently renting a house that I love in a location that I love for much cheaper than it would cost to buy. Eventually, when the price is right, I’ll buy a house. Thanks to you, I’ll have a better understanding of when the price is “right” for me.

[ltokuda]

Rich, thank you very much for creating this site. There’s so much mis-information floating around and being passed off as “common knowledge” that its very easy for people to get confused. I used to be one of those confused individuals. I had a feeling (back in 2003) that we were in a real estate bubble, but couldn’t get my head around all the conflicting information. The issue remained very hazy for me until I stumbled onto your site (in 2005) and read the Bubble Primer. That was the key. The Primer didn’t try to simply tell me what to believe. Instead, it provided me with the data and the analysis to discern what information was true and what information was false. Clarity, at last!

I got married in the summer of 2006 and decided not to buy a house just yet. I could have made a huge financial blunder back then but this site helped me to forsee the housing crash to come.

I’m currently renting a house that I love in a location that I love for much cheaper than it would cost to buy. Eventually, when the price is right, I’ll buy a house. Thanks to you, I’ll have a better understanding of when the price is “right” for me.

[ltokuda]

Rich, thank you very much for creating this site. There’s so much mis-information floating around and being passed off as “common knowledge” that its very easy for people to get confused. I used to be one of those confused individuals. I had a feeling (back in 2003) that we were in a real estate bubble, but couldn’t get my head around all the conflicting information. The issue remained very hazy for me until I stumbled onto your site (in 2005) and read the Bubble Primer. That was the key. The Primer didn’t try to simply tell me what to believe. Instead, it provided me with the data and the analysis to discern what information was true and what information was false. Clarity, at last!

I got married in the summer of 2006 and decided not to buy a house just yet. I could have made a huge financial blunder back then but this site helped me to forsee the housing crash to come.

I’m currently renting a house that I love in a location that I love for much cheaper than it would cost to buy. Eventually, when the price is right, I’ll buy a house. Thanks to you, I’ll have a better understanding of when the price is “right” for me.

[gdcox]

Rich was lucky not to be in the financial industry when he started this site. The polluting effect of colleagues in the business can be paralyzing.

Sadly the vast bulk of people never knew this site was here. I only stumbled on it when I connected RSS in Oct 07.

It is interesting to note that only in the last few months has the concensus forecast started to arrive in Rich’s territory.

Separately someone on this site(‘The purchase dilemma’) chose a base year ( ‘fair value year’ in my words ) of 2000 and projected by typical growth in earnings to arrive at a price level at which, in my words, it is safe to buy for the long term. I think that should be one focus now of this site; perhaps area by area.

Mind you, that is an impossible job for all areas built in the last decade. There the big ? will be the order of the day.

[gdcox]

Rich was lucky not to be in the financial industry when he started this site. The polluting effect of colleagues in the business can be paralyzing.

Sadly the vast bulk of people never knew this site was here. I only stumbled on it when I connected RSS in Oct 07.

It is interesting to note that only in the last few months has the concensus forecast started to arrive in Rich’s territory.

Separately someone on this site(‘The purchase dilemma’) chose a base year ( ‘fair value year’ in my words ) of 2000 and projected by typical growth in earnings to arrive at a price level at which, in my words, it is safe to buy for the long term. I think that should be one focus now of this site; perhaps area by area.

Mind you, that is an impossible job for all areas built in the last decade. There the big ? will be the order of the day.

[gdcox]

Rich was lucky not to be in the financial industry when he started this site. The polluting effect of colleagues in the business can be paralyzing.

Sadly the vast bulk of people never knew this site was here. I only stumbled on it when I connected RSS in Oct 07.

It is interesting to note that only in the last few months has the concensus forecast started to arrive in Rich’s territory.

Separately someone on this site(‘The purchase dilemma’) chose a base year ( ‘fair value year’ in my words ) of 2000 and projected by typical growth in earnings to arrive at a price level at which, in my words, it is safe to buy for the long term. I think that should be one focus now of this site; perhaps area by area.

Mind you, that is an impossible job for all areas built in the last decade. There the big ? will be the order of the day.

[gdcox]

Rich was lucky not to be in the financial industry when he started this site. The polluting effect of colleagues in the business can be paralyzing.

Sadly the vast bulk of people never knew this site was here. I only stumbled on it when I connected RSS in Oct 07.

It is interesting to note that only in the last few months has the concensus forecast started to arrive in Rich’s territory.

Separately someone on this site(‘The purchase dilemma’) chose a base year ( ‘fair value year’ in my words ) of 2000 and projected by typical growth in earnings to arrive at a price level at which, in my words, it is safe to buy for the long term. I think that should be one focus now of this site; perhaps area by area.

Mind you, that is an impossible job for all areas built in the last decade. There the big ? will be the order of the day.

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