Krugman heralds start of next depression

[ucodegen]

[quote carlsbadworker]
I have a different theory. When I look at China’s economy, the biggest issue that I have with it is its low capital efficiency:
[/quote]
Thanks for the link. Interesting paper. I did notice that they don’t seem to account for the time lag of Capital Expenditure to revenue generation from Capital Expenditure. Under growth conditions greater than about 10%/yr, this can make it look like you are not making efficient use of capital. It take time for plant and equipment purchases to start making a return on investment.

I was hoping that they were going to cover more on “revenue productivity of labor”, but they were unable to segregate high tech from manual. I think this is where some divergence will be seen.

[carlsbadworker]

A six weeks check:

1. Gold has been up almost 7% since July 27.
2. The Shanghai index was up over 4%
3. TLT is also up 4%.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial output gained 13.9 percent from a year earlier, more than the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing yesterday. Consumer prices jumped 3.5 percent, the most in 22 months, as food costs climbed. Retail sales increased 18.4 percent.

Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.

Do people still agree with Krugman that the start of depression is coming?

[quote=stockstradr]I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.[/quote]

[carlsbadworker]

A six weeks check:

1. Gold has been up almost 7% since July 27.
2. The Shanghai index was up over 4%
3. TLT is also up 4%.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial output gained 13.9 percent from a year earlier, more than the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing yesterday. Consumer prices jumped 3.5 percent, the most in 22 months, as food costs climbed. Retail sales increased 18.4 percent.

Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.

Do people still agree with Krugman that the start of depression is coming?

[quote=stockstradr]I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.[/quote]

[carlsbadworker]

A six weeks check:

1. Gold has been up almost 7% since July 27.
2. The Shanghai index was up over 4%
3. TLT is also up 4%.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial output gained 13.9 percent from a year earlier, more than the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing yesterday. Consumer prices jumped 3.5 percent, the most in 22 months, as food costs climbed. Retail sales increased 18.4 percent.

Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.

Do people still agree with Krugman that the start of depression is coming?

[quote=stockstradr]I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.[/quote]

[carlsbadworker]

A six weeks check:

1. Gold has been up almost 7% since July 27.
2. The Shanghai index was up over 4%
3. TLT is also up 4%.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial output gained 13.9 percent from a year earlier, more than the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing yesterday. Consumer prices jumped 3.5 percent, the most in 22 months, as food costs climbed. Retail sales increased 18.4 percent.

Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.

Do people still agree with Krugman that the start of depression is coming?

[quote=stockstradr]I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.[/quote]

[carlsbadworker]

A six weeks check:

1. Gold has been up almost 7% since July 27.
2. The Shanghai index was up over 4%
3. TLT is also up 4%.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial output gained 13.9 percent from a year earlier, more than the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing yesterday. Consumer prices jumped 3.5 percent, the most in 22 months, as food costs climbed. Retail sales increased 18.4 percent.

Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.

Do people still agree with Krugman that the start of depression is coming?

[quote=stockstradr]I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.[/quote]

[Arraya]

Markets have no connection to fundamentals 99% of the time. There has been a slew of data points indicative of a slowing in the occidental world in the past six weeks.

[Arraya]

Markets have no connection to fundamentals 99% of the time. There has been a slew of data points indicative of a slowing in the occidental world in the past six weeks.

[Arraya]

Markets have no connection to fundamentals 99% of the time. There has been a slew of data points indicative of a slowing in the occidental world in the past six weeks.

[Arraya]

Markets have no connection to fundamentals 99% of the time. There has been a slew of data points indicative of a slowing in the occidental world in the past six weeks.

[Arraya]

Markets have no connection to fundamentals 99% of the time. There has been a slew of data points indicative of a slowing in the occidental world in the past six weeks.

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