Jim Welsh-investment-letter – Feb 17, 09

[SD Realtor]

Well if you look at todays performance of the DJIA then it pretty much has bottomed out hasn’t it? He did say he didn’t know if the S&P would go down to 699 or not but man it seems like it is heading that way as well.

So the question is, if we take this post as gospel then according to Jim we should be near the bottom shouldn’t we?

[robson]

Here’s a fun little stat I stumbled across today. I’ve read numerous people calling a bottom on the S+P at between 600-700, which I acknowledge is very likely. In inflation adjusted terms, the December 1968 high was 654 (109.8*212.058/35.6).
In other words, if we hit 650 we have had negative real growth over the last 40 years. Forget a lost decade, try 4.

Many people also argue that the government reports less inflation than truly occurred over the last decade or so. If this is true, the inflation adjusted 1968 high is more like 700 or even 750 and we are already there.

[robson]

Here’s a fun little stat I stumbled across today. I’ve read numerous people calling a bottom on the S+P at between 600-700, which I acknowledge is very likely. In inflation adjusted terms, the December 1968 high was 654 (109.8*212.058/35.6).
In other words, if we hit 650 we have had negative real growth over the last 40 years. Forget a lost decade, try 4.

Many people also argue that the government reports less inflation than truly occurred over the last decade or so. If this is true, the inflation adjusted 1968 high is more like 700 or even 750 and we are already there.

[robson]

Here’s a fun little stat I stumbled across today. I’ve read numerous people calling a bottom on the S+P at between 600-700, which I acknowledge is very likely. In inflation adjusted terms, the December 1968 high was 654 (109.8*212.058/35.6).
In other words, if we hit 650 we have had negative real growth over the last 40 years. Forget a lost decade, try 4.

Many people also argue that the government reports less inflation than truly occurred over the last decade or so. If this is true, the inflation adjusted 1968 high is more like 700 or even 750 and we are already there.

[robson]

Here’s a fun little stat I stumbled across today. I’ve read numerous people calling a bottom on the S+P at between 600-700, which I acknowledge is very likely. In inflation adjusted terms, the December 1968 high was 654 (109.8*212.058/35.6).
In other words, if we hit 650 we have had negative real growth over the last 40 years. Forget a lost decade, try 4.

Many people also argue that the government reports less inflation than truly occurred over the last decade or so. If this is true, the inflation adjusted 1968 high is more like 700 or even 750 and we are already there.

[robson]

Here’s a fun little stat I stumbled across today. I’ve read numerous people calling a bottom on the S+P at between 600-700, which I acknowledge is very likely. In inflation adjusted terms, the December 1968 high was 654 (109.8*212.058/35.6).
In other words, if we hit 650 we have had negative real growth over the last 40 years. Forget a lost decade, try 4.

Many people also argue that the government reports less inflation than truly occurred over the last decade or so. If this is true, the inflation adjusted 1968 high is more like 700 or even 750 and we are already there.

[peterb]

S&P “500” sounds about right to me.

[peterb]

S&P “500” sounds about right to me.

[peterb]

S&P “500” sounds about right to me.

[peterb]

S&P “500” sounds about right to me.

[peterb]

S&P “500” sounds about right to me.

[Author]

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