January sales figure for 92127: 107 homes already sold/pending???

[DWCAP]

Waiting kinda hinted at a speculation that deep pocketed investors may be hording real estate. I remember someone posted that they were contacted about giving advice on a bulk purchase of 100 REO’s by an investment group. How are they trying to make money? A big discount from the bank and then flip them individually? Hold and rent and then sell? Artifically increase demand pricing by a reduction in supply? (DeBeers style)? I dont really think this is happening, but their is a lot of speculation about it floating around.
I guess what I am asking is what is the big investor’s play. If we knew that, we could examine the numbers and see if this hoarding waitingtobuy mentions is real or not. (IE, 100 former REO’s hit the market the same week in spring.)

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP I posted about that contact. Groups of investors pool money together to purchase bulk REO properties at STEEP discounts. What they do with the properties, (whether they resell immediately as is, or fix them and resell, or rent them out) is up to them. However I do not see the lenders giving in (at least in this case) to the discount requested by the buying group, (again in this particular instance).

Anyways I do not agree with that speculation that realtors are hording properties. Now are flippers still alive? Yep they are. One purchased a property on Reisling near my home, and fixed it up and it is already on the market for close to 200k more then what they bought it for. As far as hording though, I don’t see it although it seems there has been alot more pending/sold activity as lenders are pricing a bit more aggressively and shorts are getting processed and accepted a bit more readily.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP I posted about that contact. Groups of investors pool money together to purchase bulk REO properties at STEEP discounts. What they do with the properties, (whether they resell immediately as is, or fix them and resell, or rent them out) is up to them. However I do not see the lenders giving in (at least in this case) to the discount requested by the buying group, (again in this particular instance).

Anyways I do not agree with that speculation that realtors are hording properties. Now are flippers still alive? Yep they are. One purchased a property on Reisling near my home, and fixed it up and it is already on the market for close to 200k more then what they bought it for. As far as hording though, I don’t see it although it seems there has been alot more pending/sold activity as lenders are pricing a bit more aggressively and shorts are getting processed and accepted a bit more readily.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP I posted about that contact. Groups of investors pool money together to purchase bulk REO properties at STEEP discounts. What they do with the properties, (whether they resell immediately as is, or fix them and resell, or rent them out) is up to them. However I do not see the lenders giving in (at least in this case) to the discount requested by the buying group, (again in this particular instance).

Anyways I do not agree with that speculation that realtors are hording properties. Now are flippers still alive? Yep they are. One purchased a property on Reisling near my home, and fixed it up and it is already on the market for close to 200k more then what they bought it for. As far as hording though, I don’t see it although it seems there has been alot more pending/sold activity as lenders are pricing a bit more aggressively and shorts are getting processed and accepted a bit more readily.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP I posted about that contact. Groups of investors pool money together to purchase bulk REO properties at STEEP discounts. What they do with the properties, (whether they resell immediately as is, or fix them and resell, or rent them out) is up to them. However I do not see the lenders giving in (at least in this case) to the discount requested by the buying group, (again in this particular instance).

Anyways I do not agree with that speculation that realtors are hording properties. Now are flippers still alive? Yep they are. One purchased a property on Reisling near my home, and fixed it up and it is already on the market for close to 200k more then what they bought it for. As far as hording though, I don’t see it although it seems there has been alot more pending/sold activity as lenders are pricing a bit more aggressively and shorts are getting processed and accepted a bit more readily.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP I posted about that contact. Groups of investors pool money together to purchase bulk REO properties at STEEP discounts. What they do with the properties, (whether they resell immediately as is, or fix them and resell, or rent them out) is up to them. However I do not see the lenders giving in (at least in this case) to the discount requested by the buying group, (again in this particular instance).

Anyways I do not agree with that speculation that realtors are hording properties. Now are flippers still alive? Yep they are. One purchased a property on Reisling near my home, and fixed it up and it is already on the market for close to 200k more then what they bought it for. As far as hording though, I don’t see it although it seems there has been alot more pending/sold activity as lenders are pricing a bit more aggressively and shorts are getting processed and accepted a bit more readily.

SD Realtor

[stockstradr]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for posting the data on those closed sales in The Summit.

We know that area fairly well. We can imagine those remaining condo owners must have been furious to see those two sales on the 3/2 units at and below $300K level. Wow! That is really a jolt to pricing in that complex. That tells me that prices dropped another $50K, because the most recent resistance level about a year ago was 350K on those units. Very interesting.

My prediction made back in middle 2004, was that the 3/2 units will hit the $280K level, but I’m surprised at how fast we are approaching that mark!

Let’s crunch the numbers. Peak pricing was about $420K on these units, achieved in early 2004. Just keeping up with the (fake under-reported) inflation rate claimed by our gov of ~3%/year, those condos would have to be selling now at about ~$470K

So in real dollars we are looking at about a 38% to 40% decline in pricing. Even in nominal dollars the decline is at least ~30%

[stockstradr]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for posting the data on those closed sales in The Summit.

We know that area fairly well. We can imagine those remaining condo owners must have been furious to see those two sales on the 3/2 units at and below $300K level. Wow! That is really a jolt to pricing in that complex. That tells me that prices dropped another $50K, because the most recent resistance level about a year ago was 350K on those units. Very interesting.

My prediction made back in middle 2004, was that the 3/2 units will hit the $280K level, but I’m surprised at how fast we are approaching that mark!

Let’s crunch the numbers. Peak pricing was about $420K on these units, achieved in early 2004. Just keeping up with the (fake under-reported) inflation rate claimed by our gov of ~3%/year, those condos would have to be selling now at about ~$470K

So in real dollars we are looking at about a 38% to 40% decline in pricing. Even in nominal dollars the decline is at least ~30%

[stockstradr]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for posting the data on those closed sales in The Summit.

We know that area fairly well. We can imagine those remaining condo owners must have been furious to see those two sales on the 3/2 units at and below $300K level. Wow! That is really a jolt to pricing in that complex. That tells me that prices dropped another $50K, because the most recent resistance level about a year ago was 350K on those units. Very interesting.

My prediction made back in middle 2004, was that the 3/2 units will hit the $280K level, but I’m surprised at how fast we are approaching that mark!

Let’s crunch the numbers. Peak pricing was about $420K on these units, achieved in early 2004. Just keeping up with the (fake under-reported) inflation rate claimed by our gov of ~3%/year, those condos would have to be selling now at about ~$470K

So in real dollars we are looking at about a 38% to 40% decline in pricing. Even in nominal dollars the decline is at least ~30%

[stockstradr]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for posting the data on those closed sales in The Summit.

We know that area fairly well. We can imagine those remaining condo owners must have been furious to see those two sales on the 3/2 units at and below $300K level. Wow! That is really a jolt to pricing in that complex. That tells me that prices dropped another $50K, because the most recent resistance level about a year ago was 350K on those units. Very interesting.

My prediction made back in middle 2004, was that the 3/2 units will hit the $280K level, but I’m surprised at how fast we are approaching that mark!

Let’s crunch the numbers. Peak pricing was about $420K on these units, achieved in early 2004. Just keeping up with the (fake under-reported) inflation rate claimed by our gov of ~3%/year, those condos would have to be selling now at about ~$470K

So in real dollars we are looking at about a 38% to 40% decline in pricing. Even in nominal dollars the decline is at least ~30%

[stockstradr]

SD Realtor,

Thanks for posting the data on those closed sales in The Summit.

We know that area fairly well. We can imagine those remaining condo owners must have been furious to see those two sales on the 3/2 units at and below $300K level. Wow! That is really a jolt to pricing in that complex. That tells me that prices dropped another $50K, because the most recent resistance level about a year ago was 350K on those units. Very interesting.

My prediction made back in middle 2004, was that the 3/2 units will hit the $280K level, but I’m surprised at how fast we are approaching that mark!

Let’s crunch the numbers. Peak pricing was about $420K on these units, achieved in early 2004. Just keeping up with the (fake under-reported) inflation rate claimed by our gov of ~3%/year, those condos would have to be selling now at about ~$470K

So in real dollars we are looking at about a 38% to 40% decline in pricing. Even in nominal dollars the decline is at least ~30%

[DWCAP]

SD R.
I thought that was you, but I wasnt really sure. Didn’t want to claim that someone said something when they didnt.
I also agree about investors not hoarding property. The banks may be VERY slow (up until now?) repricing and accepting offers, but this amounts to feet draging before the execution. It may slow it down for a few more seconds of life, but it isnt gonna stop it.
I was just trying to think what these investors buisness plan was. Certainly it isn’t buy like it is 2005. Banks don’t (or didn’t?) give discounts that can match the market falling 5% in one MONTH!, so no money there. I could kinda see them picking up properties that were trashed and unsellable at a discount that MAYBE could return something. Need alot of really cheap labor, but the theory is there. Rents are nowhere near costs, and returns would be 10+ years away, assuming costs don’t eat them before then. Sitting on perfectly good capital without any use until this is over is just stupid. So I just dont see it.
Maybe when the OptionAdj. primes start killing banks, the despiration for capital will drive a few deals like that. I just kinda think that San Diego is an affulent area and there are people who still think this is a temporary correction. They couldnt buy before, 10% drops and 5.8% interest means they can, and the rest be damned. I also dont think there are enough people like that to save this market, but it doesnt mean that they dont exist.

[DWCAP]

SD R.
I thought that was you, but I wasnt really sure. Didn’t want to claim that someone said something when they didnt.
I also agree about investors not hoarding property. The banks may be VERY slow (up until now?) repricing and accepting offers, but this amounts to feet draging before the execution. It may slow it down for a few more seconds of life, but it isnt gonna stop it.
I was just trying to think what these investors buisness plan was. Certainly it isn’t buy like it is 2005. Banks don’t (or didn’t?) give discounts that can match the market falling 5% in one MONTH!, so no money there. I could kinda see them picking up properties that were trashed and unsellable at a discount that MAYBE could return something. Need alot of really cheap labor, but the theory is there. Rents are nowhere near costs, and returns would be 10+ years away, assuming costs don’t eat them before then. Sitting on perfectly good capital without any use until this is over is just stupid. So I just dont see it.
Maybe when the OptionAdj. primes start killing banks, the despiration for capital will drive a few deals like that. I just kinda think that San Diego is an affulent area and there are people who still think this is a temporary correction. They couldnt buy before, 10% drops and 5.8% interest means they can, and the rest be damned. I also dont think there are enough people like that to save this market, but it doesnt mean that they dont exist.

[DWCAP]

SD R.
I thought that was you, but I wasnt really sure. Didn’t want to claim that someone said something when they didnt.
I also agree about investors not hoarding property. The banks may be VERY slow (up until now?) repricing and accepting offers, but this amounts to feet draging before the execution. It may slow it down for a few more seconds of life, but it isnt gonna stop it.
I was just trying to think what these investors buisness plan was. Certainly it isn’t buy like it is 2005. Banks don’t (or didn’t?) give discounts that can match the market falling 5% in one MONTH!, so no money there. I could kinda see them picking up properties that were trashed and unsellable at a discount that MAYBE could return something. Need alot of really cheap labor, but the theory is there. Rents are nowhere near costs, and returns would be 10+ years away, assuming costs don’t eat them before then. Sitting on perfectly good capital without any use until this is over is just stupid. So I just dont see it.
Maybe when the OptionAdj. primes start killing banks, the despiration for capital will drive a few deals like that. I just kinda think that San Diego is an affulent area and there are people who still think this is a temporary correction. They couldnt buy before, 10% drops and 5.8% interest means they can, and the rest be damned. I also dont think there are enough people like that to save this market, but it doesnt mean that they dont exist.

[DWCAP]

SD R.
I thought that was you, but I wasnt really sure. Didn’t want to claim that someone said something when they didnt.
I also agree about investors not hoarding property. The banks may be VERY slow (up until now?) repricing and accepting offers, but this amounts to feet draging before the execution. It may slow it down for a few more seconds of life, but it isnt gonna stop it.
I was just trying to think what these investors buisness plan was. Certainly it isn’t buy like it is 2005. Banks don’t (or didn’t?) give discounts that can match the market falling 5% in one MONTH!, so no money there. I could kinda see them picking up properties that were trashed and unsellable at a discount that MAYBE could return something. Need alot of really cheap labor, but the theory is there. Rents are nowhere near costs, and returns would be 10+ years away, assuming costs don’t eat them before then. Sitting on perfectly good capital without any use until this is over is just stupid. So I just dont see it.
Maybe when the OptionAdj. primes start killing banks, the despiration for capital will drive a few deals like that. I just kinda think that San Diego is an affulent area and there are people who still think this is a temporary correction. They couldnt buy before, 10% drops and 5.8% interest means they can, and the rest be damned. I also dont think there are enough people like that to save this market, but it doesnt mean that they dont exist.

[Author]

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