January HPI

[gdcox]

Isn’t is best to go back to the fourth graph on

Yet Another Bad Month for the Case-Shiller HPI

to look for a clue as to when prices were ‘correct’ : ie not over or undershot for a period of normal mortgages. That tells me something like late 99; but projected for the very long term trend ‘real’ growth in house and land prices (ie trend above inflation) the ‘normal’ price level may well been something like 2002 prices

The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!

[NotCranky]

Esmith,
Interesting. The target seems reasonable enough to me.

“The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!”

At least some areas are going to overshoot the target esmith has proposed even if we don’t have an extreme recession. That is already self evident.
I think there are some areas from the middle tier,for instance Poway’s housing stock that meets middle tier criteria and perhaps most “Fortress” zones that will not overshoot or not by so much, dependent on the economic resiliency or lack of in San diego going forward.

[NotCranky]

Esmith,
Interesting. The target seems reasonable enough to me.

“The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!”

At least some areas are going to overshoot the target esmith has proposed even if we don’t have an extreme recession. That is already self evident.
I think there are some areas from the middle tier,for instance Poway’s housing stock that meets middle tier criteria and perhaps most “Fortress” zones that will not overshoot or not by so much, dependent on the economic resiliency or lack of in San diego going forward.

[NotCranky]

Esmith,
Interesting. The target seems reasonable enough to me.

“The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!”

At least some areas are going to overshoot the target esmith has proposed even if we don’t have an extreme recession. That is already self evident.
I think there are some areas from the middle tier,for instance Poway’s housing stock that meets middle tier criteria and perhaps most “Fortress” zones that will not overshoot or not by so much, dependent on the economic resiliency or lack of in San diego going forward.

[NotCranky]

Esmith,
Interesting. The target seems reasonable enough to me.

“The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!”

At least some areas are going to overshoot the target esmith has proposed even if we don’t have an extreme recession. That is already self evident.
I think there are some areas from the middle tier,for instance Poway’s housing stock that meets middle tier criteria and perhaps most “Fortress” zones that will not overshoot or not by so much, dependent on the economic resiliency or lack of in San diego going forward.

[NotCranky]

Esmith,
Interesting. The target seems reasonable enough to me.

“The big time trouble is, the market will probably undershoot that level; perhaps by a substantial . Longer term buyer won’t then worry so much though for they can wait for the knife to bounce!”

At least some areas are going to overshoot the target esmith has proposed even if we don’t have an extreme recession. That is already self evident.
I think there are some areas from the middle tier,for instance Poway’s housing stock that meets middle tier criteria and perhaps most “Fortress” zones that will not overshoot or not by so much, dependent on the economic resiliency or lack of in San diego going forward.

[Author]

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