I’ve seen it all now

[drunkle]

good read.

so where did all the bitter sellers go…

[drunkle]

good read.

so where did all the bitter sellers go…

[HLS]

Stick with the facts…

The MEDIAN price is not an accurate indication of anything, in an up market or down market, nor when the current median is compared to a previous median.

IN FACT, it is probably the worst indicator that could be used, but the media uses it. Virtually ever spokespiece of the media is handed a script to say or write. They don’t question it or understand it. It’s how misinformation gets around, myths that get reported as facts.

In the last few months, (the most recent fuel for the median price) since subprime meltdown started, many people could no longer qualify for purchase loans. These are MOSTLY entry level buyers at the lower end of pricing.

Because they couldn’t get loans, they didn’t buy. Fewer lower priced homes sold. VOILA, the median went up.
It’s NOT an indication of strength in the market in any way shape or form, sorry.

Here’s an example:
1,2,3,4,5,6,7, The median is 4
3,4,5,6,7 The median is 5 WOW 25% higher !!

You can skew stats to your favor when necessary, but MEDIAN house prices means nada, even when compared to previous medians.

In Driver’s Ed I was taught to avoid the median.

[HLS]

Stick with the facts…

The MEDIAN price is not an accurate indication of anything, in an up market or down market, nor when the current median is compared to a previous median.

IN FACT, it is probably the worst indicator that could be used, but the media uses it. Virtually ever spokespiece of the media is handed a script to say or write. They don’t question it or understand it. It’s how misinformation gets around, myths that get reported as facts.

In the last few months, (the most recent fuel for the median price) since subprime meltdown started, many people could no longer qualify for purchase loans. These are MOSTLY entry level buyers at the lower end of pricing.

Because they couldn’t get loans, they didn’t buy. Fewer lower priced homes sold. VOILA, the median went up.
It’s NOT an indication of strength in the market in any way shape or form, sorry.

Here’s an example:
1,2,3,4,5,6,7, The median is 4
3,4,5,6,7 The median is 5 WOW 25% higher !!

You can skew stats to your favor when necessary, but MEDIAN house prices means nada, even when compared to previous medians.

In Driver’s Ed I was taught to avoid the median.

[kicksavedave]

2004 – 1200 sq ft 35 year old POS = $500K

2009 – 2500 sq ft brand new house = $500K

Same area, median unchanged.

[kicksavedave]

2004 – 1200 sq ft 35 year old POS = $500K

2009 – 2500 sq ft brand new house = $500K

Same area, median unchanged.

[scruffydog]

Noticeably missing from this story –
1. The 90s economic downturn in CA was second only to the great depression
2. unemployment was ~8%

The 90s housing downturn did not magically happen in a vacuum; the CAUSE was loss of jobs due to aerospace downsizing. ~500,000 jobs total lost statewide.
If the current economy was as sick as the 90s economy I would also jump on the 25 – 30% or more median price loss bandwagon.

[scruffydog]

Noticeably missing from this story –
1. The 90s economic downturn in CA was second only to the great depression
2. unemployment was ~8%

The 90s housing downturn did not magically happen in a vacuum; the CAUSE was loss of jobs due to aerospace downsizing. ~500,000 jobs total lost statewide.
If the current economy was as sick as the 90s economy I would also jump on the 25 – 30% or more median price loss bandwagon.

[scruffydog]

Median price complainers…give it a rest already! It’s been debated here endlessly. Everyone is aware of the limitations.
I would use some other historical measure if it were readily available.

[scruffydog]

Median price complainers…give it a rest already! It’s been debated here endlessly. Everyone is aware of the limitations.
I would use some other historical measure if it were readily available.

[an]

Just because the CAUSE is different now compare to the 90s doesn’t mean that the decline won’t happen. It already happens in some area. The cause today is not job lost but tightening of credit and proliferation of exotic loans. We haven’t seen loose lending like this since the great depression. Also, we never enter a declining RE market with an all time low interest rate. Examples are right there in your face if you just look. In 2005, a 1500 sq-ft condo/townhouse in Carmel Valley was going for $650k. Today, the exact same model just got listed as bank owned for $536k. How’s that for 20% drop over 2 years? A 2100 sq-ft house in MM in 2005 w/ canyon view were going for mid $700k. Today, many are listing in the mid $600k with no taker. How’s that for 15% drop over 2 years? I can go on. Some drop faster/harder than other but no area is immune unless it didn’t experience crazy appreciation over the last 7 years.

[an]

Just because the CAUSE is different now compare to the 90s doesn’t mean that the decline won’t happen. It already happens in some area. The cause today is not job lost but tightening of credit and proliferation of exotic loans. We haven’t seen loose lending like this since the great depression. Also, we never enter a declining RE market with an all time low interest rate. Examples are right there in your face if you just look. In 2005, a 1500 sq-ft condo/townhouse in Carmel Valley was going for $650k. Today, the exact same model just got listed as bank owned for $536k. How’s that for 20% drop over 2 years? A 2100 sq-ft house in MM in 2005 w/ canyon view were going for mid $700k. Today, many are listing in the mid $600k with no taker. How’s that for 15% drop over 2 years? I can go on. Some drop faster/harder than other but no area is immune unless it didn’t experience crazy appreciation over the last 7 years.

[cashman]

Getting back to the original post, my point was that this tract is in Chino Hills, which is NOT in LA county, or any of the usual suspect high priced areas, but in San Bernadino county. $2M for tract homes? (Excuse me, semi-custom). Give me a break.

[cashman]

Getting back to the original post, my point was that this tract is in Chino Hills, which is NOT in LA county, or any of the usual suspect high priced areas, but in San Bernadino county. $2M for tract homes? (Excuse me, semi-custom). Give me a break.

[scruffydog]

You’re right!! Chino Hills is on the LA county border. Hard to tell (if you miss the little freeway county border signs) because the area is built up and one community blends into another. San Bernardino county border makes an unusual jog west and includes Chino Hills. Interestingly CH ends up west (and south) of Pomona which is in LA!

The close proximity of CH to LA area is the reason these properties are selling and prices are high.

[Author]

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