Is the JUNE SHOE next to drop?

[cashman]

I discovered something really interesting as I was on Zip Realty last night. I live in Diamond Bar, and have been really amazed (and disturbed) at how the prices have been so resistant to declining. But I was only looking at listing prices. True, they haven’t budged much. But just for fun, I thought I’d look at sales prices. They were all about 10-15% lower than the asking prices! So something is really happening after all.

[cashman]

I discovered something really interesting as I was on Zip Realty last night. I live in Diamond Bar, and have been really amazed (and disturbed) at how the prices have been so resistant to declining. But I was only looking at listing prices. True, they haven’t budged much. But just for fun, I thought I’d look at sales prices. They were all about 10-15% lower than the asking prices! So something is really happening after all.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The median may drop as well, but is incidental, as the numbers can be skewed.

At least we have made progress on that front.

ls2008 –
Since you are on the westside, can you comment on what’s going on in Westwood. I have some friends who moved from the UK last year and are looking for a place to live. The market there still seems to be fairly hot. There is minimal SFR inventory to speak of in the < 2 Mil range in Westwood. Any SFR in the 1.0-1.4 Mil range seems to have disappeared over the last couple months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The median may drop as well, but is incidental, as the numbers can be skewed.

At least we have made progress on that front.

ls2008 –
Since you are on the westside, can you comment on what’s going on in Westwood. I have some friends who moved from the UK last year and are looking for a place to live. The market there still seems to be fairly hot. There is minimal SFR inventory to speak of in the < 2 Mil range in Westwood. Any SFR in the 1.0-1.4 Mil range seems to have disappeared over the last couple months.

[partypup]

Hey cashman, how do you get sales data on zip? I just see listing prices…

[partypup]

Hey cashman, how do you get sales data on zip? I just see listing prices…

[latesummer2008]

Westwood Condos are getting hit, but very little inventory of SFRs in Westwood. Like most here on the Westside, good, clean houses in decent areas, that are priced right, sell. Everything else is just sitting.
I came across an interesting website that gives current data by zip code, using Average Selling Prices. Better than Median Prices but still would like to see $/SQFT numbers:

Here are a few zips showing some weakness.

San Diego County

Cardiff 92007
4/7 10 sales $939K
5/7 11 sales $835K (-11.1%)

Del Mar 92014
4/7 17 sales $1656K
5/7 11 sales $1365K (-17.6%)

La Jolla 92037
4/7 48 sales $1178K
5/7 54 sales $1120K (-5.0%)

Ocean Beach 92107
4/7 13 sales $824K
5/7 36 sales $628K (-23.8%)

Point Loma 92106
4/7 21 sales $1015K
5/7 18 sales $836K (-17.3%)

Orange County

Corona Del Mar 92625
4/7 15 sales $1560K
5/7 17 sales $1416K (-9.3%)

Newport Beach 92660
4/7 20 sales $1574K
5/7 34 sales $1326K (-15.8%)

Newport Beach 92661
4/7 3 sales $2703K
5/7 7 sales $1592K (-41.1%)

Laguna Beach 92651
4/7 31 sales $1674K
5/7 24 sales $1577K (-5.8%)

Website is : Melissa Data
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezhomeowners.aspx

It shows monthly data, going back 6 years, by zip code

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Westwood Condos are getting hit, but very little inventory of SFRs in Westwood. Like most here on the Westside, good, clean houses in decent areas, that are priced right, sell. Everything else is just sitting.
I came across an interesting website that gives current data by zip code, using Average Selling Prices. Better than Median Prices but still would like to see $/SQFT numbers:

Here are a few zips showing some weakness.

San Diego County

Cardiff 92007
4/7 10 sales $939K
5/7 11 sales $835K (-11.1%)

Del Mar 92014
4/7 17 sales $1656K
5/7 11 sales $1365K (-17.6%)

La Jolla 92037
4/7 48 sales $1178K
5/7 54 sales $1120K (-5.0%)

Ocean Beach 92107
4/7 13 sales $824K
5/7 36 sales $628K (-23.8%)

Point Loma 92106
4/7 21 sales $1015K
5/7 18 sales $836K (-17.3%)

Orange County

Corona Del Mar 92625
4/7 15 sales $1560K
5/7 17 sales $1416K (-9.3%)

Newport Beach 92660
4/7 20 sales $1574K
5/7 34 sales $1326K (-15.8%)

Newport Beach 92661
4/7 3 sales $2703K
5/7 7 sales $1592K (-41.1%)

Laguna Beach 92651
4/7 31 sales $1674K
5/7 24 sales $1577K (-5.8%)

Website is : Melissa Data
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezhomeowners.aspx

It shows monthly data, going back 6 years, by zip code

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[sdrealtor]

Del Mar isnt showing weakness it’s on fire. I’ve been looking for a client very closely for close to a year. Anything decent under $2M is as good as gone within a month or two. Basing opinions on 11 sales in an area where EVERY SINGLE property is unique is a very dangerous thing. Cardiff is another market like DM where every single property is unique with a few exceptions east of I-5. The prices of sales have more to do with what actually came on the market than what is happening with pricing levels.

[sdrealtor]

Del Mar isnt showing weakness it’s on fire. I’ve been looking for a client very closely for close to a year. Anything decent under $2M is as good as gone within a month or two. Basing opinions on 11 sales in an area where EVERY SINGLE property is unique is a very dangerous thing. Cardiff is another market like DM where every single property is unique with a few exceptions east of I-5. The prices of sales have more to do with what actually came on the market than what is happening with pricing levels.

[cyphire]

LateSummer mentions trends – this bears serious watching. This market took 15 years to go up…. Why would we expect it to drop so suddenly? Especially as the data is lagging and inventory is building… It takes a long time to sell a house and houses are not selling so quickly yet. I was just looking in Del Mar to rent (we ended up in La Jolla) and we also looked at some houses.

The big problem is that the houses are tulips. Nice small houses in Del Mar (east of the 101 and west of the 5) built 30-40 years ago and remodeled are almost 2 million dollars.

We are buying tulips. We think that these prices are normal. Wait until these prices go back to where they were 10 years ago. If you say that can’t happen, I disagree.

There are more rich people then ever – but the wealthy buy special properties at the beach and in the hills with huge views, etc. Not 3 bedroom 3 bath homes with a partial view for 1.5 million dollars. These are reserved for the vast upper middle, middle middle class who will still be paying for them in 10 years at today’s inflated prices.

As the market comes down and the mob realizes that there is significant asset reduction, it will be harder and harder to make the decision to commit to these prices. We should expect that as prices come down there are still people who will buy. Most people can’t see trends, they don’t use a lot of logic when it comes to buying a house. As some previous posts have said – I wonder what they will be thinking in 6 months or a year. Or 3?

Why is it every time there is a bubble, people still buy on the way down? The funny thing is that even if you look at history and look at the data – we still can’t conceive that the market will head all the way down… Even though it’s been doing it (especially here in CA) as long as there have been homes.

Did the original native Americans have the same problem with their huts?

[cyphire]

LateSummer mentions trends – this bears serious watching. This market took 15 years to go up…. Why would we expect it to drop so suddenly? Especially as the data is lagging and inventory is building… It takes a long time to sell a house and houses are not selling so quickly yet. I was just looking in Del Mar to rent (we ended up in La Jolla) and we also looked at some houses.

The big problem is that the houses are tulips. Nice small houses in Del Mar (east of the 101 and west of the 5) built 30-40 years ago and remodeled are almost 2 million dollars.

We are buying tulips. We think that these prices are normal. Wait until these prices go back to where they were 10 years ago. If you say that can’t happen, I disagree.

There are more rich people then ever – but the wealthy buy special properties at the beach and in the hills with huge views, etc. Not 3 bedroom 3 bath homes with a partial view for 1.5 million dollars. These are reserved for the vast upper middle, middle middle class who will still be paying for them in 10 years at today’s inflated prices.

As the market comes down and the mob realizes that there is significant asset reduction, it will be harder and harder to make the decision to commit to these prices. We should expect that as prices come down there are still people who will buy. Most people can’t see trends, they don’t use a lot of logic when it comes to buying a house. As some previous posts have said – I wonder what they will be thinking in 6 months or a year. Or 3?

Why is it every time there is a bubble, people still buy on the way down? The funny thing is that even if you look at history and look at the data – we still can’t conceive that the market will head all the way down… Even though it’s been doing it (especially here in CA) as long as there have been homes.

Did the original native Americans have the same problem with their huts?

[PD]

From observation, most of the houses in Coronado 1.5M and under are being purchased by the middle class. These people are reaching.
I talked to a friend yesterday who owns a 3+M home here. She told me that she thought that prices would not go down much because there is so much wealth here. But then in the next breath she told me about how she was talking to two of her neighbors (also bought 3+M homes in last 2 years) and they were commiserating over their onerous mortgages. All three families are high earning but are not independently wealthy.
She also told me about another neighbor who bought as a vacation home, using this as an example of how desirable Coronado is for 2nd homeowners. But just because someone bought a second home doesn’t mean that they can really afford it. Further, they may have been speculating.

[PD]

From observation, most of the houses in Coronado 1.5M and under are being purchased by the middle class. These people are reaching.
I talked to a friend yesterday who owns a 3+M home here. She told me that she thought that prices would not go down much because there is so much wealth here. But then in the next breath she told me about how she was talking to two of her neighbors (also bought 3+M homes in last 2 years) and they were commiserating over their onerous mortgages. All three families are high earning but are not independently wealthy.
She also told me about another neighbor who bought as a vacation home, using this as an example of how desirable Coronado is for 2nd homeowners. But just because someone bought a second home doesn’t mean that they can really afford it. Further, they may have been speculating.

[Anonymous]

cyphire is right. Just as I learned in the stock market, NEVER try to catch a falling knife………….

[Author]

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