Is Facebook IPO more like Google or Groupon?

[enron_by_the_sea]

[quote=markmax33] AND the estimated amount of ad revenue Facebook makes from each user is about $125/user. [/quote]

I am surprised that no one called out this one. FB has 900million users. So are you saying their revenues today are 100 billion dollars?

Actually their ad revenues for 2011 were more like ~ 4.2 bilion ( See http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/facebook-revenue-will-reach-4-27-billion-emarketer-says-1-.html )

They made $9.5/user/year in US/Canada and much less than that if the user is from other parts of the world.

See http://seekingalpha.com/article/559401-facebook-made-9-51-in-ad-revenue-per-user-last-year-in-the-u-s-and-canada?source=feed

[markmax33]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea][quote=markmax33] AND the estimated amount of ad revenue Facebook makes from each user is about $125/user. [/quote]

I am surprised that no one called out this one. FB has 900million users. So are you saying their revenues today are 100 billion dollars?

Actually their ad revenues for 2011 were more like ~ 4.2 bilion ( See http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/facebook-revenue-will-reach-4-27-billion-emarketer-says-1-.html )

They made $9.5/user/year in US/Canada and much less than that if the user is from other parts of the world.

See http://seekingalpha.com/article/559401-facebook-made-9-51-in-ad-revenue-per-user-last-year-in-the-u-s-and-canada?source=feed%5B/quote%5D

I think the $125 was the projected with the multiple sorry for the mistake. In any case ad revenues are in the teens on the internet and they are stealing marketshare from TV left and right. It is a powerful business model and I suspect we won’t even have operating systems at some point in the near future and we will be operating on web infrastructure platforms like Facebook and Google have set up.

I do not suggest buying it in the first few days necessarily but google IPO’ed at $60/share if I remember correctly and are now $600/share. Be scared like these guys are, or follow the ad revenue like the smart investors and follow the trend of the under 35 crowd. Zynga will be just fine. Legalized online gambling is a sure bet in the USA at this point since they struck down the wire act.

[The-Shoveler]

Seriously you FB guys ever read “George Orwell 1984” or watched Brazil ?
I have never logged onto FB, and really never intend to at this point.

I kind of like watching mind numbing TV sometimes with channel changer in hand, (it’s an old guy thing)

FLU Nice call on vxx, well at least today.

[markmax33]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Seriously you FB guys ever read “George Orwell 1984” or watched Brazil ?
I have never logged onto FB, and really never intend to at this point.

I kind of like watching mind numbing TV sometimes with channel changer in hand, (it’s an old guy thing)

FLU Nice call on vxx, well at least today.[/quote]

I don’t care what they predicted in the old book, it doesn’t mean everyone isn’t flocking to it. It doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. If anything those books should push you toward buying the stocks for short term gains. You certainly won’t stop people from using it.

[equalizer]

[quote=markmax33]
I think the $125 was the projected with the multiple sorry for the mistake. In any case ad revenues are in the teens on the internet and they are stealing marketshare from TV left and right. It is a powerful business model and I suspect we won’t even have operating systems at some point in the near future and we will be operating on web infrastructure platforms like Facebook and Google have set up.

I do not suggest buying it in the first few days necessarily but google IPO’ed at $60/share if I remember correctly and are now $600/share. Be scared like these guys are, or follow the ad revenue like the smart investors and follow the trend of the under 35 crowd. Zynga will be just fine. Legalized online gambling is a sure bet in the USA at this point since they struck down the wire act.[/quote]
Yep, I thought FB was a fad, but guess who is laying off 30,000 people soon? Hewlett Packard. It seems that very few tech companies make any real profit these days outside of Apple, Oracle, MS, and GOOG. Intel and MS should heed warning from smart young people and stop wasting money on yet another boring OS/CPU. All the money is in software. Maybe they should train their people how to game FB apps. They could fire half the staff and get massive ad revenue. I gotta go, think Meg is calling me.

http://allthingsd.com/20120516/socialcam-facebook-viddy/

[an]

[quote=equalizer]Yep, I thought FB was a fad, but guess who is laying off 30,000 people soon? Hewlett Packard. It seems that very few tech companies make any real profit these days outside of Apple, Oracle, MS, and GOOG. Intel and MS should heed warning from smart young people and stop wasting money on yet another boring OS/CPU. All the money is in software. Maybe they should train their people how to game FB apps. They could fire half the staff and get massive ad revenue. I gotta go, think Meg is calling me.

http://allthingsd.com/20120516/socialcam-facebook-viddy/%5B/quote%5D
You don’t think there’s S/W in CPU and OS is not S/W? How do you think these FB apps will run without CPU and OS? What will it run on without CPU/OS? What server will serve these apps without CPU/OS?

[equalizer]

[quote=AN][quote=equalizer]Yep, I thought FB was a fad, but guess who is laying off 30,000 people soon? Hewlett Packard. It seems that very few tech companies make any real profit these days outside of Apple, Oracle, MS, and GOOG. Intel and MS should heed warning from smart young people and stop wasting money on yet another boring OS/CPU. All the money is in software. Maybe they should train their people how to game FB apps. They could fire half the staff and get massive ad revenue. I gotta go, think Meg is calling me.

http://allthingsd.com/20120516/socialcam-facebook-viddy/%5B/quote%5D
You don’t think there’s S/W in CPU and OS is not S/W? How do you think these FB apps will run without CPU and OS? What will it run on without CPU/OS? What server will serve these apps without CPU/OS?[/quote]
It was an tacit acknowledgement that CPU and OS research doesn’t command high profit margin growth and thus P/E respect. Look at the DRAM space, where only 1-2 companies in top ten many any money, rest are in/near BK. I took the disrespect to the next absurd level – stop all new hardware research and get into FB/Idol linked app research for phones.

[The-Shoveler]

Got my order in for 100 shares FB at 38.15,

If I get it I will sell at 60 or above and take the crew here out to lunch.

LOL.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Got my order in for 100 shares FB at 38.15,

If I get it I will sell at 60 or above and take the crew here out to lunch.

LOL.[/quote]

You’re not going to get it..
I think retail gamblers are going to bid this sucker up to about twice, $80/share…

[Hobie]

Flu; Brilliant post to Nina and spot on.

I won’t be buying FB for those exact reasons.

However, one thing that is really interesting about FB is the data. Realtime, self described, lifestyle info, personal demographics on tons of people. Best marketing research avail. Put conspiracy hat on and that data would be valuable to insurance co, medical policies, government, etc. And very targeted ads which we haven’t seen yet ( i believe). So while not a Google, it will prove to an evolving co. And volital stock.

[Coronita]

My prediction though is FB is eventually going to buy a mobile platform…They’ll need one, and it won’t suffice just to build on top of iOs, windows, or android….

[outtamojo]

[quote=Hobie]Flu; Brilliant post to Nina and spot on.

I won’t be buying FB for those exact reasons.

However, one thing that is really interesting about FB is the data. Realtime, self described, lifestyle info, personal demographics on tons of people. Best marketing research avail. Put conspiracy hat on and that data would be valuable to insurance co, medical policies, government, etc. And very targeted ads which we haven’t seen yet ( i believe). So while not a Google, it will prove to an evolving co. And volital stock.[/quote]

I don’t get this social networking myself, but I could see how it could be a sort of family archive that one could access a few generations later so one could see what the life of a grand parent was like or something like that.

[outtamojo]

Just opened at 42…

[Hobie]

Outta: Me too. Must be the over 30 thing again. But… why people are so willing to give up their privacy? Everyone now checks out future employees, dates, via FB, blog, public records. Nothing is private anymore and its forever!

[outtamojo]

[quote=Hobie]Outta: Me too. Must be the over 30 thing again. But… why people are so willing to give up their privacy? Everyone now checks out future employees, dates, via FB, blog, public records. Nothing is private anymore and its forever![/quote]

Time to make me a faked super hyped page for myself then : )

[Author]

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