Investment positioning for Dem Sweep and Super-Stimulus

[davelj]

I think Biden will win for one simple reason. Let’s cut through the mountain of BS and analysis.

40%+ of folks are going to vote just as they did last election because they’re loyal to their party. Only the undecided folks in the middle really matter – that’s like 10%-20% of voters (probably closer to 10%). This is not news.

Very few of that “middle group” of voters who voted for Trump are sitting around thinking, “Wow, I’m glad I voted for Trump – he turned out to be really good.” So, of that middle group that voted democrat last time, almost all of them will do the same this time. But… a large percentage of that group that voted for Trump last time aren’t going to do so this time. And that will be the difference. It’s not that complicated. As with everything in economics, everything important in politics occurs at the margin.

I don’t know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low – it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).

[scaredyclassic]

if new voters who previously weren’t interested in voting are inspired to vote, I would guess the majority of newer voters would be anti-trump.

frankly, at this point, Im neutral. I think we probably deserve another 4 years of this.

[svelte]

[quote=davelj]

I don’t know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low – it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).[/quote]

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida – as it usually does. And those two races are really close.

[svelte]

[quote=scaredyclassic]frankly, at this point, Im neutral. I think we probably deserve another 4 years of this.[/quote]

Go! Go to your room and bite your tongue!

[spdrun]

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida – as it usually does. And those two races are really close.

Texas is within a point in either direction and could decide this race. Remember, Trump shafted a lot of border cities and towns by building his wall and tightening the border. They used to profit from day-crossers buying goods that are cheaper in the US.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=davelj]

I don’t know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low – it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).[/quote]

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida – as it usually does. And those two races are really close.[/quote]

Im thinking Trump gets FLA and Biden gets PA. The two I wonder are Michigan and WI

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