Interest Rate Time Bomb???? When will they have to rise?

[barnaby33]

You can be looking at a fantastic price on a home with a historically low interest rate, but if you are really concerned about job stability are you going to pull the trigger and buy or are you going to remain in a holding pattern until you feel some stabilization?

One of my deepest fears is that I wouldn’t know a good price even if I saw it. I’ve been so burned by this last bubble cycle on the one hand. On the other RE has always been more expensive in SoCal than most of America. Gives me the willies trying to weight the pros and cons. Especially when you pile on increasing instability in my career.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

[Anonymous]

I’m hoping to buy in the SD North County coastal area in the next couple of years but I am willing to wait out for optimal timing even though the family is kind of crammed in a small coastal rental right now.

Hi, capeman. Yeah, it’s definitely hard to be crammed into a small space when you have family. It’ll be worth it though in a couple of years when you are able to get a nice coastal property at a nice price. Coastal weather is really nice. At one time, I wanted to live near the coast, but at this point, I plan on buying in Temecula. When I first relocated to the Temecula area, I absolutely hated the weather, way too hot in the summer. About a couple of years ago, I really started getting used to it. I don’t know, maybe I’m becoming a desert rat.

[Anonymous]

I’m hoping to buy in the SD North County coastal area in the next couple of years but I am willing to wait out for optimal timing even though the family is kind of crammed in a small coastal rental right now.

Hi, capeman. Yeah, it’s definitely hard to be crammed into a small space when you have family. It’ll be worth it though in a couple of years when you are able to get a nice coastal property at a nice price. Coastal weather is really nice. At one time, I wanted to live near the coast, but at this point, I plan on buying in Temecula. When I first relocated to the Temecula area, I absolutely hated the weather, way too hot in the summer. About a couple of years ago, I really started getting used to it. I don’t know, maybe I’m becoming a desert rat.

[Anonymous]

I’m hoping to buy in the SD North County coastal area in the next couple of years but I am willing to wait out for optimal timing even though the family is kind of crammed in a small coastal rental right now.

Hi, capeman. Yeah, it’s definitely hard to be crammed into a small space when you have family. It’ll be worth it though in a couple of years when you are able to get a nice coastal property at a nice price. Coastal weather is really nice. At one time, I wanted to live near the coast, but at this point, I plan on buying in Temecula. When I first relocated to the Temecula area, I absolutely hated the weather, way too hot in the summer. About a couple of years ago, I really started getting used to it. I don’t know, maybe I’m becoming a desert rat.

[Anonymous]

I’m hoping to buy in the SD North County coastal area in the next couple of years but I am willing to wait out for optimal timing even though the family is kind of crammed in a small coastal rental right now.

Hi, capeman. Yeah, it’s definitely hard to be crammed into a small space when you have family. It’ll be worth it though in a couple of years when you are able to get a nice coastal property at a nice price. Coastal weather is really nice. At one time, I wanted to live near the coast, but at this point, I plan on buying in Temecula. When I first relocated to the Temecula area, I absolutely hated the weather, way too hot in the summer. About a couple of years ago, I really started getting used to it. I don’t know, maybe I’m becoming a desert rat.

[Anonymous]

I’m hoping to buy in the SD North County coastal area in the next couple of years but I am willing to wait out for optimal timing even though the family is kind of crammed in a small coastal rental right now.

Hi, capeman. Yeah, it’s definitely hard to be crammed into a small space when you have family. It’ll be worth it though in a couple of years when you are able to get a nice coastal property at a nice price. Coastal weather is really nice. At one time, I wanted to live near the coast, but at this point, I plan on buying in Temecula. When I first relocated to the Temecula area, I absolutely hated the weather, way too hot in the summer. About a couple of years ago, I really started getting used to it. I don’t know, maybe I’m becoming a desert rat.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by JWM in SD on April 21, 2008 – 4:37pm.

Marion, I understand what you are saying and having seen what is happeing in Temecula / Murrieta upclose and personal a couple of weeks ago (saw some very nice properties for sale with the nicest one with a huge foreclosure auction sign in the window…corner lot too), I can understand how tempting it is. It is the one area that if you have a steady job with enough income to support it and don’t really plan on moving anywhere for a long time, you could justify the purchase. The key is having a stable income in that area and that is going to be bigger assumption than most think it is in the coming years.

JWM, I agree with you about the stable income factor. It’s bad right now, and will only get worse for a lot of people.

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 22, 2008 – 9:16am.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

Josh, when interest rates rise, I can see them getting a lot lower as well. They’re going to get really low in the French Valley. I was thinking about buying out there because of that and its close proximity to Temecula, but I have no intention of raising my boys next to the local meth lab.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by JWM in SD on April 21, 2008 – 4:37pm.

Marion, I understand what you are saying and having seen what is happeing in Temecula / Murrieta upclose and personal a couple of weeks ago (saw some very nice properties for sale with the nicest one with a huge foreclosure auction sign in the window…corner lot too), I can understand how tempting it is. It is the one area that if you have a steady job with enough income to support it and don’t really plan on moving anywhere for a long time, you could justify the purchase. The key is having a stable income in that area and that is going to be bigger assumption than most think it is in the coming years.

JWM, I agree with you about the stable income factor. It’s bad right now, and will only get worse for a lot of people.

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 22, 2008 – 9:16am.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

Josh, when interest rates rise, I can see them getting a lot lower as well. They’re going to get really low in the French Valley. I was thinking about buying out there because of that and its close proximity to Temecula, but I have no intention of raising my boys next to the local meth lab.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by JWM in SD on April 21, 2008 – 4:37pm.

Marion, I understand what you are saying and having seen what is happeing in Temecula / Murrieta upclose and personal a couple of weeks ago (saw some very nice properties for sale with the nicest one with a huge foreclosure auction sign in the window…corner lot too), I can understand how tempting it is. It is the one area that if you have a steady job with enough income to support it and don’t really plan on moving anywhere for a long time, you could justify the purchase. The key is having a stable income in that area and that is going to be bigger assumption than most think it is in the coming years.

JWM, I agree with you about the stable income factor. It’s bad right now, and will only get worse for a lot of people.

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 22, 2008 – 9:16am.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

Josh, when interest rates rise, I can see them getting a lot lower as well. They’re going to get really low in the French Valley. I was thinking about buying out there because of that and its close proximity to Temecula, but I have no intention of raising my boys next to the local meth lab.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by JWM in SD on April 21, 2008 – 4:37pm.

Marion, I understand what you are saying and having seen what is happeing in Temecula / Murrieta upclose and personal a couple of weeks ago (saw some very nice properties for sale with the nicest one with a huge foreclosure auction sign in the window…corner lot too), I can understand how tempting it is. It is the one area that if you have a steady job with enough income to support it and don’t really plan on moving anywhere for a long time, you could justify the purchase. The key is having a stable income in that area and that is going to be bigger assumption than most think it is in the coming years.

JWM, I agree with you about the stable income factor. It’s bad right now, and will only get worse for a lot of people.

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 22, 2008 – 9:16am.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

Josh, when interest rates rise, I can see them getting a lot lower as well. They’re going to get really low in the French Valley. I was thinking about buying out there because of that and its close proximity to Temecula, but I have no intention of raising my boys next to the local meth lab.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by JWM in SD on April 21, 2008 – 4:37pm.

Marion, I understand what you are saying and having seen what is happeing in Temecula / Murrieta upclose and personal a couple of weeks ago (saw some very nice properties for sale with the nicest one with a huge foreclosure auction sign in the window…corner lot too), I can understand how tempting it is. It is the one area that if you have a steady job with enough income to support it and don’t really plan on moving anywhere for a long time, you could justify the purchase. The key is having a stable income in that area and that is going to be bigger assumption than most think it is in the coming years.

JWM, I agree with you about the stable income factor. It’s bad right now, and will only get worse for a lot of people.

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 22, 2008 – 9:16am.

However Marion, if you think prices in the IE are low now, just wait till we get to 9% mortgages! That won’t happen for a few years I don’t think as the fed is determined to keep deflation from taking hold. Price increases are not inflation!

Josh

Josh, when interest rates rise, I can see them getting a lot lower as well. They’re going to get really low in the French Valley. I was thinking about buying out there because of that and its close proximity to Temecula, but I have no intention of raising my boys next to the local meth lab.

[denverite]

The late 1970’s illustrate some lessons that probably could be applied here. Authur Burns was the Fed chairman for most of the decade, 1970-1978. Inflation was rampant and wage increases lagged. It was called stagflation and it lingered for years. Nixon, Ford, and Carter all had magic bullets with funny names that supposedly would fix the problem (remember WIN (Whip Inflation Now) all five phases).

Getting back to the premise…Aurthur Burns kept interest rates relatively low for MANY years, with no success. He was succeeded by Paul Volker (A.K.A. Superman)in 1978. The first year of so of Volker’s chairmanship had pretty much the same policy as Burns’ et al. Then a funny thing happened. Mr. Volker actually bit the bullet. He raised interest rates until inflation was tamed (early 1980’s), and that was that. It wasn’t pretty but it worked. Previous posts speak eloquently to this period.

I guess the point of all this is that inflation and loose monetary policy can persist for quite a while. FWIT, my personal opinion is that the impetus for change will come from either the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or soverign wealth funds. In any case, I think a foreign body will be the driving factor. BB does not have the fortitude to go it alone.

[denverite]

The late 1970’s illustrate some lessons that probably could be applied here. Authur Burns was the Fed chairman for most of the decade, 1970-1978. Inflation was rampant and wage increases lagged. It was called stagflation and it lingered for years. Nixon, Ford, and Carter all had magic bullets with funny names that supposedly would fix the problem (remember WIN (Whip Inflation Now) all five phases).

Getting back to the premise…Aurthur Burns kept interest rates relatively low for MANY years, with no success. He was succeeded by Paul Volker (A.K.A. Superman)in 1978. The first year of so of Volker’s chairmanship had pretty much the same policy as Burns’ et al. Then a funny thing happened. Mr. Volker actually bit the bullet. He raised interest rates until inflation was tamed (early 1980’s), and that was that. It wasn’t pretty but it worked. Previous posts speak eloquently to this period.

I guess the point of all this is that inflation and loose monetary policy can persist for quite a while. FWIT, my personal opinion is that the impetus for change will come from either the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or soverign wealth funds. In any case, I think a foreign body will be the driving factor. BB does not have the fortitude to go it alone.

[denverite]

The late 1970’s illustrate some lessons that probably could be applied here. Authur Burns was the Fed chairman for most of the decade, 1970-1978. Inflation was rampant and wage increases lagged. It was called stagflation and it lingered for years. Nixon, Ford, and Carter all had magic bullets with funny names that supposedly would fix the problem (remember WIN (Whip Inflation Now) all five phases).

Getting back to the premise…Aurthur Burns kept interest rates relatively low for MANY years, with no success. He was succeeded by Paul Volker (A.K.A. Superman)in 1978. The first year of so of Volker’s chairmanship had pretty much the same policy as Burns’ et al. Then a funny thing happened. Mr. Volker actually bit the bullet. He raised interest rates until inflation was tamed (early 1980’s), and that was that. It wasn’t pretty but it worked. Previous posts speak eloquently to this period.

I guess the point of all this is that inflation and loose monetary policy can persist for quite a while. FWIT, my personal opinion is that the impetus for change will come from either the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or soverign wealth funds. In any case, I think a foreign body will be the driving factor. BB does not have the fortitude to go it alone.

[denverite]

The late 1970’s illustrate some lessons that probably could be applied here. Authur Burns was the Fed chairman for most of the decade, 1970-1978. Inflation was rampant and wage increases lagged. It was called stagflation and it lingered for years. Nixon, Ford, and Carter all had magic bullets with funny names that supposedly would fix the problem (remember WIN (Whip Inflation Now) all five phases).

Getting back to the premise…Aurthur Burns kept interest rates relatively low for MANY years, with no success. He was succeeded by Paul Volker (A.K.A. Superman)in 1978. The first year of so of Volker’s chairmanship had pretty much the same policy as Burns’ et al. Then a funny thing happened. Mr. Volker actually bit the bullet. He raised interest rates until inflation was tamed (early 1980’s), and that was that. It wasn’t pretty but it worked. Previous posts speak eloquently to this period.

I guess the point of all this is that inflation and loose monetary policy can persist for quite a while. FWIT, my personal opinion is that the impetus for change will come from either the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or soverign wealth funds. In any case, I think a foreign body will be the driving factor. BB does not have the fortitude to go it alone.

[Author]

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