Input requested: What Would You Offer for this Home

[temeculaguy]

I think Rustico and Allan have an excellent point and the latest wall street meltdown and the NOD charts have me looking for a spot in their camp. Sure SD there has been interest for prime properties where there are few REO’s but that doesn’t mean it will stay like that, at some point when houses are half the price for the same thing a few miles away it will affect your target areas. But back to the Big Chunks, I think we may be entering those times and since it has happened in the past to a lesser degree the never before seen storm we have brewing may have some never before seen effects. The builders have had to drop in chunks and they have the luxury of slowing down construction, the banks don’t have that luxury and they are taking a beating right now from investors. One look at the NOD charts and it is obvious that it’s going to get silly real soon. Looking back in five years i think the story will be told that the massive REO’s and the banks trying to clear them before the next batch will be credited with what drove the prices down.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I read a real good article today juxtaposing the LBO frenzy of the 1980s with the nonsense happening in the CDO/CDS markets. The essence of the article was the massive creation of unserviceable debt, the enrichment of a few key players and the lasting fallout following the crash.

Another article talked about the faltering stock price of Blackstone following their IPO and that investors are suddenly more wary than they were even a few months before.

It appears we are on the cusp of a credit squeeze, if not an outright credit crunch. Bernanke is doing his level best to stay away from rate hikes, but at some point it appears that interest rates will rise again. Combined with upcoming rate resets this summer and next, this might be the final nail in the coffin.

I am certainly not an alarmist, but admittedly bearish by nature, and this all has the hallmarks of a true blowout. NODs, NOTs and foreclosures are all up by several hundred percent and I don’t think we have even seen the worst yet.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I read a real good article today juxtaposing the LBO frenzy of the 1980s with the nonsense happening in the CDO/CDS markets. The essence of the article was the massive creation of unserviceable debt, the enrichment of a few key players and the lasting fallout following the crash.

Another article talked about the faltering stock price of Blackstone following their IPO and that investors are suddenly more wary than they were even a few months before.

It appears we are on the cusp of a credit squeeze, if not an outright credit crunch. Bernanke is doing his level best to stay away from rate hikes, but at some point it appears that interest rates will rise again. Combined with upcoming rate resets this summer and next, this might be the final nail in the coffin.

I am certainly not an alarmist, but admittedly bearish by nature, and this all has the hallmarks of a true blowout. NODs, NOTs and foreclosures are all up by several hundred percent and I don’t think we have even seen the worst yet.

[NotCranky]

I hate to see this eclectic area get a bad rap, or a lukewarm review, even though I can absolutely see it is not everyone’s cup of tea. It is an extremely good location geographically speaking.Easy access to all kinds of nice places, education, health and and employment centers. There are many interesting people and businesses.It has one of the best “micro climates” in the county. There are trade offs, for some,the mostly questionable housing stock and a other negatives are worth it. I spent most of the last 25 years living in a few of these zip codes.

[NotCranky]

I hate to see this eclectic area get a bad rap, or a lukewarm review, even though I can absolutely see it is not everyone’s cup of tea. It is an extremely good location geographically speaking.Easy access to all kinds of nice places, education, health and and employment centers. There are many interesting people and businesses.It has one of the best “micro climates” in the county. There are trade offs, for some,the mostly questionable housing stock and a other negatives are worth it. I spent most of the last 25 years living in a few of these zip codes.

[JC]

Agreed, these areas aren’t perfect, but they do have a lot to offer. There are some really nice parts of NP and University Heights and I’ve found both of these neighborhoods to be much friendlier than the beaches or the UTC area (nice areas too). Thank you so much for all of the input. 🙂

BTW, I realize that I did not ask my original question appropriately. I was not looking for a professional opinion on the value of that particular home (was not looking for info that shouldn’t be posted on a public forum). I was just looking for gut reaction to what folks would pay for something like that as I just can’t imagine anyone paying anywhere close to the list price. However, I guess that can be said for many properties on the market right now…….

[JC]

Agreed, these areas aren’t perfect, but they do have a lot to offer. There are some really nice parts of NP and University Heights and I’ve found both of these neighborhoods to be much friendlier than the beaches or the UTC area (nice areas too). Thank you so much for all of the input. 🙂

BTW, I realize that I did not ask my original question appropriately. I was not looking for a professional opinion on the value of that particular home (was not looking for info that shouldn’t be posted on a public forum). I was just looking for gut reaction to what folks would pay for something like that as I just can’t imagine anyone paying anywhere close to the list price. However, I guess that can be said for many properties on the market right now…….

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I was talking with a buddy of mine in the SF/Bay Area and he was telling me about four parcels of land in the Los Altos Hills area (near Palo Alto). There are three 14,000sf lots and one 16,000sf lot. They are priced at $2MM each. That’s right: Each. For just the land.

If you look at properties in the Marin County area, you are still finding houses priced in the $900/sf to $1,200/sf range.

While it appears that this insanity is starting to unwind, there are still parts of California where it appears that pricing is not only stickier than imagined, but it is holding steady.

As ScruffyDog opined elsewhere on the blog, LA Metro is still solid. While I agree that LA is probably lagging San Diego by about a year, pricing variations are still puzzling.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I was talking with a buddy of mine in the SF/Bay Area and he was telling me about four parcels of land in the Los Altos Hills area (near Palo Alto). There are three 14,000sf lots and one 16,000sf lot. They are priced at $2MM each. That’s right: Each. For just the land.

If you look at properties in the Marin County area, you are still finding houses priced in the $900/sf to $1,200/sf range.

While it appears that this insanity is starting to unwind, there are still parts of California where it appears that pricing is not only stickier than imagined, but it is holding steady.

As ScruffyDog opined elsewhere on the blog, LA Metro is still solid. While I agree that LA is probably lagging San Diego by about a year, pricing variations are still puzzling.

[Author]

Posts