If you think the “Mother of all recessions” isn’t coming

[BuyerWillEPB]

Elected officials, scrambling to adjust, are trimming money for public schools, reducing grants to help the homeless, even asking police to dry-clean their uniforms less often
==========================================================

Wow, that’s a tough choice to make. Fewer uniforms dry cleaned, or keep the next generation priced out of housing?

Decisions, decisions…

[stansd]

I don’t think this in and of itself provides any new or concrete evidence that the “mother of all recessions” is coming.

Extrapolating from some governmental agencies having funding issues to the entire economy going into disarray is a bit of a leap.

I’m sypathetic to the idea of a recession coming, but all of us on this board tend to be a little trigger happy when it comes to the data. Every now and then we all need to step away from the bubble blogs and real estate focused websites and keep consumer spending, business investment, unemployment, the agressive response of the fed, etc. in perspective.

Stan

[stansd]

I don’t think this in and of itself provides any new or concrete evidence that the “mother of all recessions” is coming.

Extrapolating from some governmental agencies having funding issues to the entire economy going into disarray is a bit of a leap.

I’m sypathetic to the idea of a recession coming, but all of us on this board tend to be a little trigger happy when it comes to the data. Every now and then we all need to step away from the bubble blogs and real estate focused websites and keep consumer spending, business investment, unemployment, the agressive response of the fed, etc. in perspective.

Stan

[stansd]

I don’t think this in and of itself provides any new or concrete evidence that the “mother of all recessions” is coming.

Extrapolating from some governmental agencies having funding issues to the entire economy going into disarray is a bit of a leap.

I’m sypathetic to the idea of a recession coming, but all of us on this board tend to be a little trigger happy when it comes to the data. Every now and then we all need to step away from the bubble blogs and real estate focused websites and keep consumer spending, business investment, unemployment, the agressive response of the fed, etc. in perspective.

Stan

[stansd]

I don’t think this in and of itself provides any new or concrete evidence that the “mother of all recessions” is coming.

Extrapolating from some governmental agencies having funding issues to the entire economy going into disarray is a bit of a leap.

I’m sypathetic to the idea of a recession coming, but all of us on this board tend to be a little trigger happy when it comes to the data. Every now and then we all need to step away from the bubble blogs and real estate focused websites and keep consumer spending, business investment, unemployment, the agressive response of the fed, etc. in perspective.

Stan

[stansd]

I don’t think this in and of itself provides any new or concrete evidence that the “mother of all recessions” is coming.

Extrapolating from some governmental agencies having funding issues to the entire economy going into disarray is a bit of a leap.

I’m sypathetic to the idea of a recession coming, but all of us on this board tend to be a little trigger happy when it comes to the data. Every now and then we all need to step away from the bubble blogs and real estate focused websites and keep consumer spending, business investment, unemployment, the agressive response of the fed, etc. in perspective.

Stan

[patientrenter]

I agree with stan. Export-driven sectors of the economy (and there are some left) are doing well and should continue to do well. China and Japan and Korea and Germany and other exporters are still buying US securities. And if they stop, their exports will too, so they have a lot of incentive to continue.

On the margins, these foreign countries are tilting slightly away from the USD, and within the US they are tilting from safer bonds to riskier equity-type investments. But they have to keep buying lots of US securities if they want us to keep buying their goods, and they do still very much want that.

Between these foreigners anxious to keep exporting to us, and Congress and every pol and agency in DC and every state wanting the party to continue as long as possible, it’s unlikely to suddenly stop in 2008. There will be local catastrophes, just as homebuilders and sub-prime MBS were in 2007, but even a few of those alone don’t guarantee a depression.

Oh, and I still expect a 20% decrease in home prices here in OC in 2008.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

I agree with stan. Export-driven sectors of the economy (and there are some left) are doing well and should continue to do well. China and Japan and Korea and Germany and other exporters are still buying US securities. And if they stop, their exports will too, so they have a lot of incentive to continue.

On the margins, these foreign countries are tilting slightly away from the USD, and within the US they are tilting from safer bonds to riskier equity-type investments. But they have to keep buying lots of US securities if they want us to keep buying their goods, and they do still very much want that.

Between these foreigners anxious to keep exporting to us, and Congress and every pol and agency in DC and every state wanting the party to continue as long as possible, it’s unlikely to suddenly stop in 2008. There will be local catastrophes, just as homebuilders and sub-prime MBS were in 2007, but even a few of those alone don’t guarantee a depression.

Oh, and I still expect a 20% decrease in home prices here in OC in 2008.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

I agree with stan. Export-driven sectors of the economy (and there are some left) are doing well and should continue to do well. China and Japan and Korea and Germany and other exporters are still buying US securities. And if they stop, their exports will too, so they have a lot of incentive to continue.

On the margins, these foreign countries are tilting slightly away from the USD, and within the US they are tilting from safer bonds to riskier equity-type investments. But they have to keep buying lots of US securities if they want us to keep buying their goods, and they do still very much want that.

Between these foreigners anxious to keep exporting to us, and Congress and every pol and agency in DC and every state wanting the party to continue as long as possible, it’s unlikely to suddenly stop in 2008. There will be local catastrophes, just as homebuilders and sub-prime MBS were in 2007, but even a few of those alone don’t guarantee a depression.

Oh, and I still expect a 20% decrease in home prices here in OC in 2008.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

I agree with stan. Export-driven sectors of the economy (and there are some left) are doing well and should continue to do well. China and Japan and Korea and Germany and other exporters are still buying US securities. And if they stop, their exports will too, so they have a lot of incentive to continue.

On the margins, these foreign countries are tilting slightly away from the USD, and within the US they are tilting from safer bonds to riskier equity-type investments. But they have to keep buying lots of US securities if they want us to keep buying their goods, and they do still very much want that.

Between these foreigners anxious to keep exporting to us, and Congress and every pol and agency in DC and every state wanting the party to continue as long as possible, it’s unlikely to suddenly stop in 2008. There will be local catastrophes, just as homebuilders and sub-prime MBS were in 2007, but even a few of those alone don’t guarantee a depression.

Oh, and I still expect a 20% decrease in home prices here in OC in 2008.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

I agree with stan. Export-driven sectors of the economy (and there are some left) are doing well and should continue to do well. China and Japan and Korea and Germany and other exporters are still buying US securities. And if they stop, their exports will too, so they have a lot of incentive to continue.

On the margins, these foreign countries are tilting slightly away from the USD, and within the US they are tilting from safer bonds to riskier equity-type investments. But they have to keep buying lots of US securities if they want us to keep buying their goods, and they do still very much want that.

Between these foreigners anxious to keep exporting to us, and Congress and every pol and agency in DC and every state wanting the party to continue as long as possible, it’s unlikely to suddenly stop in 2008. There will be local catastrophes, just as homebuilders and sub-prime MBS were in 2007, but even a few of those alone don’t guarantee a depression.

Oh, and I still expect a 20% decrease in home prices here in OC in 2008.

Patient renter in OC

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Collectively, we should all pretend everything is okay, keep going to the safety of our secure jobs, let the government do its job of regulating the markets, let somebody in authority do his job of keeping everyone toe the line, and we keep spending for the economy. Individually, however (including the ones in government), we all say “It’s not my problem.” There’s your solution, ostrich!

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Collectively, we should all pretend everything is okay, keep going to the safety of our secure jobs, let the government do its job of regulating the markets, let somebody in authority do his job of keeping everyone toe the line, and we keep spending for the economy. Individually, however (including the ones in government), we all say “It’s not my problem.” There’s your solution, ostrich!

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Collectively, we should all pretend everything is okay, keep going to the safety of our secure jobs, let the government do its job of regulating the markets, let somebody in authority do his job of keeping everyone toe the line, and we keep spending for the economy. Individually, however (including the ones in government), we all say “It’s not my problem.” There’s your solution, ostrich!

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Collectively, we should all pretend everything is okay, keep going to the safety of our secure jobs, let the government do its job of regulating the markets, let somebody in authority do his job of keeping everyone toe the line, and we keep spending for the economy. Individually, however (including the ones in government), we all say “It’s not my problem.” There’s your solution, ostrich!

[Author]

Posts