November 27, 2017 at 8:06 PM #22467
After my flood of posts on why permabear Mark Hanson is a hack, I thought I’d look at my own predictions. Check it out. First, in July 2016, I posted this:
Prediction: San Diego market goes up 8%+ over the next year
One year later, here is Rich’s monthly report:
Single Family up 7% in 12 months
Condo up 7% in 12 months
Aggregate up 7% in 12 months
Off by one point!
I also made another 12-month prediction in late May 2015:
–Thanks Rich. I look forward to new long term graphs. I especially like the rent to mortgage payment ratio one.
I think starting this summer we will see a 12 month increase in prices of 7 to 10%. Rents are rising, job growth is strong, and unemployment in SD is now 4.7%. All those newly employed people will either pressure purchase prices or rents up since new construction is minimal and offset by foreign buyers.–
Rich’s June 2016 report showed a 12-month increase of 7% aggregate. (6% SFH/9% condo).
In Dec 2012 not to worry about the supposed “rising rates” that the goldbugs and inflation-conspiracy theorists were pushing.
Dear people considered about rising ratesNovember 27, 2017 at 8:23 PM #808584
I should say, despite my crack on goldbugs, I think gold and silver will do moderately well over the next 5-10 years, with a decent chance of a big price spike but much less downside risk.
With silver, there’s a growing number of industrial applications, and it currently costs more money to build new silver mines than the current $17 market price of silver. There are older mines producing silver for $7/oz, but mining costs tend to go up and there has been no new big discovery in a very long time. Even when silver was above $30 for an extended period, mining simply did not go up much.
What I do not think will happen is the gold $10,000 silver $200 scenarios because of the various conspiracy theories out there about supposed “Fed manipulation” and “naked shorting” of gold and silver.November 28, 2017 at 12:05 PM #808591(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
Speaking of nailing predictions, I don;t think anyone nailed the timing of the bottom as precisely as I did here:November 28, 2017 at 9:56 PM #808592FlyerInHiGuest
I bought the lowest PPSF for superior units in 2 communities. Overall I got rock bottom prices in 5 communities. I’m thankful for that this festive season.
After I post this, people will be calling saying how right I was. Yeah, I went to a great school, one of the top universities. I have a great brain, believe me. Greater than anybody.November 28, 2017 at 10:21 PM #808593(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
Super high IQ. So high it breaks the OQ meter. Yuuuuge.December 19, 2017 at 2:11 PM #808795
It was a double bottom if I remember right, first at the bottom of the crash in 2009, then a false bull market caused by tax incentives to buy in 2010, then a second bottom in 2011.December 22, 2017 at 7:02 PM #808840CA renterParticipant
[quote=gzz]It was a double bottom if I remember right, first at the bottom of the crash in 2009, then a false bull market caused by tax incentives to buy in 2010, then a second bottom in 2011.[/quote]
Yes. The lower-end properties bottomed in ~2008/2009, but the higher-end properties (higher-mid to high) held on pretty well until 2011. That’s when we bought our house, too, as did many other Piggs.
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