How to fix the RE Market 2011 style

[jstoesz]

This game has been going a long time in ca. My parents doubled their condo sales price in 1 year… That was the 70s. It bought them a nice home in mn with the proceeds. Why would this mentality change with one set back. We are talking a century of irrational exuberance. LA used to be a wasteland before the speculators and buerau of reclamation came in and remade the whole area. It’s in the cultural DNA.

[markmax33]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=briansd1]…..
Except that houses have become bigger and more luxurious in the last 40 years…..[/quote]

Most young second generation Californians, if they were trying just to buy the land their parents’ first home sits on, at the same age at which their parents bought that house, would have to pay a price that is a higher multiple of their incomes than their parents paid. Prices of homes have gone up faster than typical incomes over the last 40 years.[/quote]

debasing of the currency…thank you FED!

[outtamojo]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=briansd1]…..
Except that houses have become bigger and more luxurious in the last 40 years…..[/quote]

Most young second generation Californians, if they were trying just to buy the land their parents’ first home sits on, at the same age at which their parents bought that house, would have to pay a price that is a higher multiple of their incomes than their parents paid. Prices of homes have gone up faster than typical incomes over the last 40 years.[/quote]

Land, they’re not makin anymore of it…

[sdrealtor]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=briansd1]…..
Except that houses have become bigger and more luxurious in the last 40 years…..[/quote]

Most young second generation Californians, if they were trying just to buy the land their parents’ first home sits on, at the same age at which their parents bought that house, would have to pay a price that is a higher multiple of their incomes than their parents paid. Prices of homes have gone up faster than typical incomes over the last 40 years.[/quote]

Is it just CA? My parents bought their house in NJ in 1963 and about 30 years later sold it for 10 times what they paid.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Is it just CA? My parents bought their house in NJ in 1963 and about 30 years later sold it for 10 times what they paid.[/quote]
Yeah – but CA was on steroids for the similar timeframe.
My parents bought for 29K in 1966. Sold to me (at market rate) for $600k in 2002. 35 years and 20 times the value.

[an]

Based on the census data, CA isn’t that far off from other states. Here’s the data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html

I think inflation in the 60s-80s affected price more than the actual state.
CA went from $15k in 1960 to $211k in 2000 while US as a while went from $11k to $119k. 14x vs 10x. Oregon actually saw a steeper rise than CA, going from $10k to $150k, that’s 15x vs 14x. Alaska saw an even steeper rise of 16x, going from $9k to $144k. Looking at this data make me doubtful that rising interest rate (due to inflation) will affect housing price inversely. Rates were in the teens in the 70s and 80s, yet look at what happen to nominal housing prices.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=UCGal][quote=sdrealtor]

Is it just CA? My parents bought their house in NJ in 1963 and about 30 years later sold it for 10 times what they paid.[/quote]
Yeah – but CA was on steroids for the similar timeframe.
My parents bought for 29K in 1966. Sold to me (at market rate) for $600k in 2002. 35 years and 20 times the value.[/quote]

Absolutely agree that CA appreciated much faster but it also grew and matured significantly more than the east coast which was mostly built out decades ago. The CA hi tech economy boomed over those decades compared to the manufacturing based economy in other parts of the country that declined on a relative basis. With that said, my point was actually that real estate values increased much faster than income in alot of places not just CA.

[Diego Mamani]

[quote=sdrealtor]Is it just CA? My parents bought their house in NJ in 1963 and about 30 years later sold it for 10 times what they paid.[/quote] Of course, comparing 1963 dollars to 1993 dollars is like comparing pesos to dollars. I just checked the CPI values for 1963 and 1993 (30 years), and general prices quintupled over that period. In other words, your parents’ house appreciated at twice the rate of inflation. That is, it doubled its value in real terms.

[SD Transplant]

Surge in Rich Chinese Who ‘Invest’ in U.S. Citizenship

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2011/11/09/surge-in-rich-chinese-who-invest-in-u-s-citizenship/

Despite all the talk of class warfare and punishing success, the U.S. remains a highly desirable place for the world’s rich. Especially for the rich Chinese.

Reuters
Newly minted U.S. citizens According to data from the Immigration Service, thousands of wealthy Chinese have applied for the EB-5 Visa, also known as the “green-card-for-money” program.

Under the program, foreign investors must finance commercial projects in the U.S. by investing either $500,000 or $1 million and create at least 10 full-time jobs. The investors have to undergo a background check, identify the source of their wealth and create and sustain 10 full-time jobs. The investors and their families can get citizenship after five years if they fulfill the requirements.

Lots of rich people around the world apply. But the Chinese have become far and away the biggest users and beneficiaries.

In 2011, 2,969 Chinese citizens applied for the program and 934 were approved, according to the Immigration Service. (Approval doesn’t mean they get citizenship, it just means they can start the program). Their numbers represented more than three quarters of the total number of applicants and approvals.

It’s also a huge increase from previous years. In 2007, only 270 Chinese citizens applied and only 161 were approved, accounting for only about a third of the totals.

Why the huge increase?

The obvious reason is that China has a lot more millionaires and billionaires.

But the other reason is that these newly rich want out – or at least an escape hatch and presence in another country in case they have to flee.

A recent survey from the Bank of China and wealth researcher Hurun Report found that more than half of China’s millionaires are either considering emigrating or have already taken steps to do so.

The survey found that the most common reason cited by respondents for emigrating was their children’s education, followed by a desire for better medical treatment and the fear of pollution in China.

The top destination among those emigrating was the U.S., accounting for 40%, followed by Canada with 37%, Singapore with 14% and Europe with 11%, the survey showed.

The EB-5 program has stirred controversy for years, with some saying it’s brought welcome investment, and others saying it’’s a mercenary citizenship program that does little for actual employment.

Do you think the flood of Chinese investors getting citizenship is good or bad for the economy?

[Diego Mamani]

SDT, I think you need to clarify the differences between EB-5 visa, permanent resident (“green card”) status, and US citizenship.

I know the green card may lead to citizenship, if a certain number years elapse, and if the person is interested in applying for it. But I’m not clear whether the EB-5 visa can lead to permanent residence.

Your post implies that the EB-5 visa and US citizenship are the same thing.

[briansd1]

It’s about university education.

We have the best universities and people want to to send their kids here to study and become proficient in English, the language of business.

We live in a globalized world now. There is no guarantee that people will stay here after school.

People want to come and go across borders as they wish in search of opportunities.

Michael Dell just said that opportunities are in China.

I have a Chinese friend who is a young PhD in physics and worked in telecom in SD. He’s recently joined a startup in a university town on the East Coast. His plan is to move back to Hong Kong/Shenzhen after gaining enough experience.

Americans need to get off the exceptionalism bandwagon if they wish to understand the world. The world had changed and immigrants now are no longer the poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of yore (especially those with advanced degrees).

Many people now view a US passport as simply a convenient travel document.

[patb]

Canada is in the finalphases of a massive real estate bubble.

When Canada’s bubble pops canadians will be liquidating assets here for cash at home.

[Author]

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