How close is the San Diego housing market to the historical average?

[denverite]

There are some considerations that rarely are mentioned. First, the past 20 years have seen increasingly reduced tax burdens, coinciding with increased federal and state spending that has been financed with ever increasing cheap money and personal and government debt resulting in bubble driven economies. Using these years as a baseline, should inflate the ratio of house-to-income price, as more dollars become available to each individual as a percent of income.

Although the governments are currently supporting the housing market, that will eventually slow. We can’t, IMO, continue those actions forever. But in the interim, we have replaced personal debt with even more government debt. That’s almost certainly not sustainable.

Eventually the piper must be paid. We are starting to see some significant downsizing in state and local governments, which will have a tendency to depress the economy.

Most economists agree that higher taxes will be forthcoming reversing the trend of the last 20 years. The absolute amount is anyone’s guess, but to be sure, there will be fewer dollars in the hands of consumers, resulting in a negative effect on the economy.

My best guess is that the economy follows the Japanese model, drifting marginally lower year after year, with the housing market following the lead of the general economy.

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry to weigh in so late on this. Thanks Ed for the analysis. I have a couple thoughts on the per capita-vs-median income thing.

First, I did some comparisons with per capita and median incomes a while back, and I didn’t come up with the same divergence you did. Unfortunately I can’t remember where I pulled my data but I think it might be a question of different data sources or something.

Second, if you look at the price to rent ratio, it tracks pretty well with the price to per capita income ratio. That is a sign to me that per capita income is doing a good job of tracking “spending power” on houses, because it is more or less in line with what people are spending on rents.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry to weigh in so late on this. Thanks Ed for the analysis. I have a couple thoughts on the per capita-vs-median income thing.

First, I did some comparisons with per capita and median incomes a while back, and I didn’t come up with the same divergence you did. Unfortunately I can’t remember where I pulled my data but I think it might be a question of different data sources or something.

Second, if you look at the price to rent ratio, it tracks pretty well with the price to per capita income ratio. That is a sign to me that per capita income is doing a good job of tracking “spending power” on houses, because it is more or less in line with what people are spending on rents.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry to weigh in so late on this. Thanks Ed for the analysis. I have a couple thoughts on the per capita-vs-median income thing.

First, I did some comparisons with per capita and median incomes a while back, and I didn’t come up with the same divergence you did. Unfortunately I can’t remember where I pulled my data but I think it might be a question of different data sources or something.

Second, if you look at the price to rent ratio, it tracks pretty well with the price to per capita income ratio. That is a sign to me that per capita income is doing a good job of tracking “spending power” on houses, because it is more or less in line with what people are spending on rents.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry to weigh in so late on this. Thanks Ed for the analysis. I have a couple thoughts on the per capita-vs-median income thing.

First, I did some comparisons with per capita and median incomes a while back, and I didn’t come up with the same divergence you did. Unfortunately I can’t remember where I pulled my data but I think it might be a question of different data sources or something.

Second, if you look at the price to rent ratio, it tracks pretty well with the price to per capita income ratio. That is a sign to me that per capita income is doing a good job of tracking “spending power” on houses, because it is more or less in line with what people are spending on rents.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry to weigh in so late on this. Thanks Ed for the analysis. I have a couple thoughts on the per capita-vs-median income thing.

First, I did some comparisons with per capita and median incomes a while back, and I didn’t come up with the same divergence you did. Unfortunately I can’t remember where I pulled my data but I think it might be a question of different data sources or something.

Second, if you look at the price to rent ratio, it tracks pretty well with the price to per capita income ratio. That is a sign to me that per capita income is doing a good job of tracking “spending power” on houses, because it is more or less in line with what people are spending on rents.

Rich

[Ed]

Rich,

I think you’re right, the per capita data we pulled must be different. I’m not use to looking at this type of data so it wouldn’t surprise me if I did something silly. I attached the excel file with the data in the original post. Also here is where I got the data from.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3&section=2

That’s a good point that the per capita income you used tracks well with rent. I’m curious though on if incomes really have increased ~17% more than CPI since 1987… I guess that doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Thanks for weighing in on this.

Ed

[Ed]

Rich,

I think you’re right, the per capita data we pulled must be different. I’m not use to looking at this type of data so it wouldn’t surprise me if I did something silly. I attached the excel file with the data in the original post. Also here is where I got the data from.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3&section=2

That’s a good point that the per capita income you used tracks well with rent. I’m curious though on if incomes really have increased ~17% more than CPI since 1987… I guess that doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Thanks for weighing in on this.

Ed

[Ed]

Rich,

I think you’re right, the per capita data we pulled must be different. I’m not use to looking at this type of data so it wouldn’t surprise me if I did something silly. I attached the excel file with the data in the original post. Also here is where I got the data from.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3&section=2

That’s a good point that the per capita income you used tracks well with rent. I’m curious though on if incomes really have increased ~17% more than CPI since 1987… I guess that doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Thanks for weighing in on this.

Ed

[Ed]

Rich,

I think you’re right, the per capita data we pulled must be different. I’m not use to looking at this type of data so it wouldn’t surprise me if I did something silly. I attached the excel file with the data in the original post. Also here is where I got the data from.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3&section=2

That’s a good point that the per capita income you used tracks well with rent. I’m curious though on if incomes really have increased ~17% more than CPI since 1987… I guess that doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Thanks for weighing in on this.

Ed

[Ed]

Rich,

I think you’re right, the per capita data we pulled must be different. I’m not use to looking at this type of data so it wouldn’t surprise me if I did something silly. I attached the excel file with the data in the original post. Also here is where I got the data from.

http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3&section=2

That’s a good point that the per capita income you used tracks well with rent. I’m curious though on if incomes really have increased ~17% more than CPI since 1987… I guess that doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Thanks for weighing in on this.

Ed

[KSMountain]

To agree with some of the folks talking about the growth of this region…

I was born here in an unspecified year in the early 60’s.

When I was in 5th grade, we heard a stat in some film that SD was like the 18th largest city in the U.S. We were so surprised and excited by that! Imagine! It was almost like we were a major city!

Now of course that’s silly and SD is like the 8th or 6th largest city in the US, and there’s no need to wish to be bigger and any illusions of small town-ness are long long gone.

Back in those days all of P.B. had like 5 bars.

Anyone remember Tugs Tavern? Organ Power Pizza? The Old Ox? Hmm, it was something before that…

I recall when what is now Mira Mesa was one huge open space.

I read that traffic flow at the merge TRIPLED between the 80’s and the 90’s. Try to picture that rate of change for a moment and all it implies…

Back in the day, SD was thought of as a “Navy town” down in the corner of the country. It was a place to get a tattoo (on your bicep not your butt). For some reason folks just didn’t grasp the desirability of the place.

The secret of desirability is out now though and I don’t expect the anonymity genie to squeeze back into the bottle any time soon. So in that respect SD/sdrealtor are correct in my book.

Is this a thread jack? Certainly it’s fun to talk about old time San Diego…

Really it’s hard to overstate how much P.B. (e.g. Garnet) has changed w.r.t. the number of bars. Evidently the city council there had a major change of heart in the early 80’s. They suddenly grasped where *revenue* (lots of it) might come from…

On a related note – I remember when driving up the 5, you’d know when you got to Orange County because you saw… Oranges! Big groves, bordering the freeway. Those days are also long gone…

[KSMountain]

To agree with some of the folks talking about the growth of this region…

I was born here in an unspecified year in the early 60’s.

When I was in 5th grade, we heard a stat in some film that SD was like the 18th largest city in the U.S. We were so surprised and excited by that! Imagine! It was almost like we were a major city!

Now of course that’s silly and SD is like the 8th or 6th largest city in the US, and there’s no need to wish to be bigger and any illusions of small town-ness are long long gone.

Back in those days all of P.B. had like 5 bars.

Anyone remember Tugs Tavern? Organ Power Pizza? The Old Ox? Hmm, it was something before that…

I recall when what is now Mira Mesa was one huge open space.

I read that traffic flow at the merge TRIPLED between the 80’s and the 90’s. Try to picture that rate of change for a moment and all it implies…

Back in the day, SD was thought of as a “Navy town” down in the corner of the country. It was a place to get a tattoo (on your bicep not your butt). For some reason folks just didn’t grasp the desirability of the place.

The secret of desirability is out now though and I don’t expect the anonymity genie to squeeze back into the bottle any time soon. So in that respect SD/sdrealtor are correct in my book.

Is this a thread jack? Certainly it’s fun to talk about old time San Diego…

Really it’s hard to overstate how much P.B. (e.g. Garnet) has changed w.r.t. the number of bars. Evidently the city council there had a major change of heart in the early 80’s. They suddenly grasped where *revenue* (lots of it) might come from…

On a related note – I remember when driving up the 5, you’d know when you got to Orange County because you saw… Oranges! Big groves, bordering the freeway. Those days are also long gone…

[KSMountain]

To agree with some of the folks talking about the growth of this region…

I was born here in an unspecified year in the early 60’s.

When I was in 5th grade, we heard a stat in some film that SD was like the 18th largest city in the U.S. We were so surprised and excited by that! Imagine! It was almost like we were a major city!

Now of course that’s silly and SD is like the 8th or 6th largest city in the US, and there’s no need to wish to be bigger and any illusions of small town-ness are long long gone.

Back in those days all of P.B. had like 5 bars.

Anyone remember Tugs Tavern? Organ Power Pizza? The Old Ox? Hmm, it was something before that…

I recall when what is now Mira Mesa was one huge open space.

I read that traffic flow at the merge TRIPLED between the 80’s and the 90’s. Try to picture that rate of change for a moment and all it implies…

Back in the day, SD was thought of as a “Navy town” down in the corner of the country. It was a place to get a tattoo (on your bicep not your butt). For some reason folks just didn’t grasp the desirability of the place.

The secret of desirability is out now though and I don’t expect the anonymity genie to squeeze back into the bottle any time soon. So in that respect SD/sdrealtor are correct in my book.

Is this a thread jack? Certainly it’s fun to talk about old time San Diego…

Really it’s hard to overstate how much P.B. (e.g. Garnet) has changed w.r.t. the number of bars. Evidently the city council there had a major change of heart in the early 80’s. They suddenly grasped where *revenue* (lots of it) might come from…

On a related note – I remember when driving up the 5, you’d know when you got to Orange County because you saw… Oranges! Big groves, bordering the freeway. Those days are also long gone…

[KSMountain]

To agree with some of the folks talking about the growth of this region…

I was born here in an unspecified year in the early 60’s.

When I was in 5th grade, we heard a stat in some film that SD was like the 18th largest city in the U.S. We were so surprised and excited by that! Imagine! It was almost like we were a major city!

Now of course that’s silly and SD is like the 8th or 6th largest city in the US, and there’s no need to wish to be bigger and any illusions of small town-ness are long long gone.

Back in those days all of P.B. had like 5 bars.

Anyone remember Tugs Tavern? Organ Power Pizza? The Old Ox? Hmm, it was something before that…

I recall when what is now Mira Mesa was one huge open space.

I read that traffic flow at the merge TRIPLED between the 80’s and the 90’s. Try to picture that rate of change for a moment and all it implies…

Back in the day, SD was thought of as a “Navy town” down in the corner of the country. It was a place to get a tattoo (on your bicep not your butt). For some reason folks just didn’t grasp the desirability of the place.

The secret of desirability is out now though and I don’t expect the anonymity genie to squeeze back into the bottle any time soon. So in that respect SD/sdrealtor are correct in my book.

Is this a thread jack? Certainly it’s fun to talk about old time San Diego…

Really it’s hard to overstate how much P.B. (e.g. Garnet) has changed w.r.t. the number of bars. Evidently the city council there had a major change of heart in the early 80’s. They suddenly grasped where *revenue* (lots of it) might come from…

On a related note – I remember when driving up the 5, you’d know when you got to Orange County because you saw… Oranges! Big groves, bordering the freeway. Those days are also long gone…

[Author]

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