How close is the San Diego housing market to the historical average?

[Ed]

I noticed that CPI adjusted HPI was a little ways away from the historical average and yet the price to income ratio was close to the historical average. I decide to take a closer look at the data so see which one might be a better indicator of how close the San Diego housing market is to its historical average. I’m not sure how the formatting works on this forum so I threw a few charts and thoughts into the attached document. Anyway, if you have any thoughts or ideas on this I’d be glad to hear them.

Thanks,
Ed

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

To be brutally honest I don’t think Historical average in Coastal SD is going to be that meaningful, same for a lot of the LA and OC,

The region has grown tremendously over the last 30 years and has become a lot more international so what the average was for Coastal SoCal 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) may not be that meaningful now.

Some will argue but I maintain that although the growth has slowed in the last 5 or so years, it will only grow faster in the future.

IMO,

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

To be brutally honest I don’t think Historical average in Coastal SD is going to be that meaningful, same for a lot of the LA and OC,

The region has grown tremendously over the last 30 years and has become a lot more international so what the average was for Coastal SoCal 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) may not be that meaningful now.

Some will argue but I maintain that although the growth has slowed in the last 5 or so years, it will only grow faster in the future.

IMO,

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

To be brutally honest I don’t think Historical average in Coastal SD is going to be that meaningful, same for a lot of the LA and OC,

The region has grown tremendously over the last 30 years and has become a lot more international so what the average was for Coastal SoCal 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) may not be that meaningful now.

Some will argue but I maintain that although the growth has slowed in the last 5 or so years, it will only grow faster in the future.

IMO,

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

To be brutally honest I don’t think Historical average in Coastal SD is going to be that meaningful, same for a lot of the LA and OC,

The region has grown tremendously over the last 30 years and has become a lot more international so what the average was for Coastal SoCal 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) may not be that meaningful now.

Some will argue but I maintain that although the growth has slowed in the last 5 or so years, it will only grow faster in the future.

IMO,

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

To be brutally honest I don’t think Historical average in Coastal SD is going to be that meaningful, same for a lot of the LA and OC,

The region has grown tremendously over the last 30 years and has become a lot more international so what the average was for Coastal SoCal 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) may not be that meaningful now.

Some will argue but I maintain that although the growth has slowed in the last 5 or so years, it will only grow faster in the future.

IMO,

[pencilneck]

Good work Ed!

Thank you for posting this.

[pencilneck]

Good work Ed!

Thank you for posting this.

[pencilneck]

Good work Ed!

Thank you for posting this.

[pencilneck]

Good work Ed!

Thank you for posting this.

[pencilneck]

Good work Ed!

Thank you for posting this.

[davelj]

I’ve stated this opinion previously a couple of times. I think that SD residential RE will generically trade at a higher premium relative to the rest of the US today (and going forward) than it has in the past. The reason is that until the mid- to late-90s San Diego was basically viewed as a big beach town. A very pleasant place to live, to be sure. Today, however – and setting housing prices aside – San Diego is viewed as one of the more desirable places to live in the US (A “glamour city” in Robert Shiller’s parlance). [I’m not going to debate whether this view is “right” or “wrong” – I’m just stating that it’s a fact.] Given this change, it makes sense that housing in SD should trade at a higher premium relative to US housing prices on the whole than it has in the past. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the mid- and high-ends in SD are a bit overvalued, but there are mitigating factors that might buffer the downside. And while the “Everybody Wants to Live Here” meme is clearly silly… there is probably a “Helluvalotta People Want to Live Here if Housing Prices are Not Insane” meme that does apply. And while still pricey in lots of places, housing prices generically are no longer looney in SD… at the moment, that is.

[davelj]

I’ve stated this opinion previously a couple of times. I think that SD residential RE will generically trade at a higher premium relative to the rest of the US today (and going forward) than it has in the past. The reason is that until the mid- to late-90s San Diego was basically viewed as a big beach town. A very pleasant place to live, to be sure. Today, however – and setting housing prices aside – San Diego is viewed as one of the more desirable places to live in the US (A “glamour city” in Robert Shiller’s parlance). [I’m not going to debate whether this view is “right” or “wrong” – I’m just stating that it’s a fact.] Given this change, it makes sense that housing in SD should trade at a higher premium relative to US housing prices on the whole than it has in the past. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the mid- and high-ends in SD are a bit overvalued, but there are mitigating factors that might buffer the downside. And while the “Everybody Wants to Live Here” meme is clearly silly… there is probably a “Helluvalotta People Want to Live Here if Housing Prices are Not Insane” meme that does apply. And while still pricey in lots of places, housing prices generically are no longer looney in SD… at the moment, that is.

[davelj]

I’ve stated this opinion previously a couple of times. I think that SD residential RE will generically trade at a higher premium relative to the rest of the US today (and going forward) than it has in the past. The reason is that until the mid- to late-90s San Diego was basically viewed as a big beach town. A very pleasant place to live, to be sure. Today, however – and setting housing prices aside – San Diego is viewed as one of the more desirable places to live in the US (A “glamour city” in Robert Shiller’s parlance). [I’m not going to debate whether this view is “right” or “wrong” – I’m just stating that it’s a fact.] Given this change, it makes sense that housing in SD should trade at a higher premium relative to US housing prices on the whole than it has in the past. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the mid- and high-ends in SD are a bit overvalued, but there are mitigating factors that might buffer the downside. And while the “Everybody Wants to Live Here” meme is clearly silly… there is probably a “Helluvalotta People Want to Live Here if Housing Prices are Not Insane” meme that does apply. And while still pricey in lots of places, housing prices generically are no longer looney in SD… at the moment, that is.

[davelj]

I’ve stated this opinion previously a couple of times. I think that SD residential RE will generically trade at a higher premium relative to the rest of the US today (and going forward) than it has in the past. The reason is that until the mid- to late-90s San Diego was basically viewed as a big beach town. A very pleasant place to live, to be sure. Today, however – and setting housing prices aside – San Diego is viewed as one of the more desirable places to live in the US (A “glamour city” in Robert Shiller’s parlance). [I’m not going to debate whether this view is “right” or “wrong” – I’m just stating that it’s a fact.] Given this change, it makes sense that housing in SD should trade at a higher premium relative to US housing prices on the whole than it has in the past. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the mid- and high-ends in SD are a bit overvalued, but there are mitigating factors that might buffer the downside. And while the “Everybody Wants to Live Here” meme is clearly silly… there is probably a “Helluvalotta People Want to Live Here if Housing Prices are Not Insane” meme that does apply. And while still pricey in lots of places, housing prices generically are no longer looney in SD… at the moment, that is.

[Author]

Posts