Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]

I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs. [/quote]

I don’t think that professional families buy rehabs. And the rehab market is very different. Professional housewives don’t want houses with 1 bathroom and no closet space.

My opinion is that the old houses are priced too high based on the amount of work that they need. They just rode the zip code appreciation, but that will pass as we return to a normal market.

If our policymakers learned anything, they will need to allocate resources away from housing to more productive purposes. In that case, housing will cost less, proportional to income; and that’s a real price drop.

[UCGal]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Whatever interest rates were at the time these boomers “downsized” was what they were. Some took out small mortgages and others paid cash for their “WWII boxes.” Besides buyers with construction backgrounds/connections (purchasing a principal residence), boomers are the principal buyers of “smallish” antiquated (as brian would say, lol) well-located coastal SFRs. Neither of these two categories of buyers are particularly “interest-rate sensitive.” Boomers have seen and bought during all levels of interest rates, mostly at rates far higher than now. I should know how boomers think, cuz I AM one. They could give a rat’s a$$. They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

bg – I’m married to someone firmly in the boomer camp – and I’m on the trailing end of boomers. (born in the early 60’s).

You are right about *some* boomers. But others did not plan for retirement, save, and did the cash out, heloc, atm thing because life was good and life was booming… Then they may have been downsized out of their jobs and it’s very hard to get hired in your 50’s and early 60’s. Add in health issues tend to crop up in these ages – and you’ve got a lot of broke boomers lamenting that the world is unfair.

NPR did a piece on it yesterday morning on Morning Edition.
http://www.vpr.net/npr/132024817/
From that piece

A report released Tuesday looks at a big segment of that population: baby boomers.

Boomers seemed to be blessed: happy-go-lucky, healthy and wealthy. Everything seemed to tilt in their favor, but then they slammed head-on into the Great Recession.

“One of the harsh realities for boomers, especially brought on by this recession, is their optimistic view of the world has been shattered,” says Matt Thornhill, president of The Boomer Project, a market research company.

He says many older adults have suffered huge investment losses, and nearly one in four doesn’t have enough money for even a modest retirement.

“Those boomers today in their late 50s, early 60s who’ve been unemployed for a handful of years now, can’t find a job, find themselves up against health crises and unexpected expenses — they’re just ill-equipped to deal with it,” Thornhill says.

And while those boomers have always seemed comfortably comfortable, the reality is that those ages 50 to 64 have been unemployed longer than other adults, and some 8.5 million have no health coverage.

But some are lucky enough to have rich parents… From another article out today:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2010/12/14/baby-boomers-to-inherit-up-to-116-trillion.html

Baby boomers have even more reasons—11.6 trillion of them—to thank the Greatest Generation. According to a new study, the boomer generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) will inherit that many dollars, largely from their parents.

All of this is my way of saying you can’t generalize about boomer’s finances… It’s too big a cross section and the economy hit many boomers hard.

[UCGal]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Whatever interest rates were at the time these boomers “downsized” was what they were. Some took out small mortgages and others paid cash for their “WWII boxes.” Besides buyers with construction backgrounds/connections (purchasing a principal residence), boomers are the principal buyers of “smallish” antiquated (as brian would say, lol) well-located coastal SFRs. Neither of these two categories of buyers are particularly “interest-rate sensitive.” Boomers have seen and bought during all levels of interest rates, mostly at rates far higher than now. I should know how boomers think, cuz I AM one. They could give a rat’s a$$. They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

bg – I’m married to someone firmly in the boomer camp – and I’m on the trailing end of boomers. (born in the early 60’s).

You are right about *some* boomers. But others did not plan for retirement, save, and did the cash out, heloc, atm thing because life was good and life was booming… Then they may have been downsized out of their jobs and it’s very hard to get hired in your 50’s and early 60’s. Add in health issues tend to crop up in these ages – and you’ve got a lot of broke boomers lamenting that the world is unfair.

NPR did a piece on it yesterday morning on Morning Edition.
http://www.vpr.net/npr/132024817/
From that piece

A report released Tuesday looks at a big segment of that population: baby boomers.

Boomers seemed to be blessed: happy-go-lucky, healthy and wealthy. Everything seemed to tilt in their favor, but then they slammed head-on into the Great Recession.

“One of the harsh realities for boomers, especially brought on by this recession, is their optimistic view of the world has been shattered,” says Matt Thornhill, president of The Boomer Project, a market research company.

He says many older adults have suffered huge investment losses, and nearly one in four doesn’t have enough money for even a modest retirement.

“Those boomers today in their late 50s, early 60s who’ve been unemployed for a handful of years now, can’t find a job, find themselves up against health crises and unexpected expenses — they’re just ill-equipped to deal with it,” Thornhill says.

And while those boomers have always seemed comfortably comfortable, the reality is that those ages 50 to 64 have been unemployed longer than other adults, and some 8.5 million have no health coverage.

But some are lucky enough to have rich parents… From another article out today:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2010/12/14/baby-boomers-to-inherit-up-to-116-trillion.html

Baby boomers have even more reasons—11.6 trillion of them—to thank the Greatest Generation. According to a new study, the boomer generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) will inherit that many dollars, largely from their parents.

All of this is my way of saying you can’t generalize about boomer’s finances… It’s too big a cross section and the economy hit many boomers hard.

[UCGal]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Whatever interest rates were at the time these boomers “downsized” was what they were. Some took out small mortgages and others paid cash for their “WWII boxes.” Besides buyers with construction backgrounds/connections (purchasing a principal residence), boomers are the principal buyers of “smallish” antiquated (as brian would say, lol) well-located coastal SFRs. Neither of these two categories of buyers are particularly “interest-rate sensitive.” Boomers have seen and bought during all levels of interest rates, mostly at rates far higher than now. I should know how boomers think, cuz I AM one. They could give a rat’s a$$. They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

bg – I’m married to someone firmly in the boomer camp – and I’m on the trailing end of boomers. (born in the early 60’s).

You are right about *some* boomers. But others did not plan for retirement, save, and did the cash out, heloc, atm thing because life was good and life was booming… Then they may have been downsized out of their jobs and it’s very hard to get hired in your 50’s and early 60’s. Add in health issues tend to crop up in these ages – and you’ve got a lot of broke boomers lamenting that the world is unfair.

NPR did a piece on it yesterday morning on Morning Edition.
http://www.vpr.net/npr/132024817/
From that piece

A report released Tuesday looks at a big segment of that population: baby boomers.

Boomers seemed to be blessed: happy-go-lucky, healthy and wealthy. Everything seemed to tilt in their favor, but then they slammed head-on into the Great Recession.

“One of the harsh realities for boomers, especially brought on by this recession, is their optimistic view of the world has been shattered,” says Matt Thornhill, president of The Boomer Project, a market research company.

He says many older adults have suffered huge investment losses, and nearly one in four doesn’t have enough money for even a modest retirement.

“Those boomers today in their late 50s, early 60s who’ve been unemployed for a handful of years now, can’t find a job, find themselves up against health crises and unexpected expenses — they’re just ill-equipped to deal with it,” Thornhill says.

And while those boomers have always seemed comfortably comfortable, the reality is that those ages 50 to 64 have been unemployed longer than other adults, and some 8.5 million have no health coverage.

But some are lucky enough to have rich parents… From another article out today:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2010/12/14/baby-boomers-to-inherit-up-to-116-trillion.html

Baby boomers have even more reasons—11.6 trillion of them—to thank the Greatest Generation. According to a new study, the boomer generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) will inherit that many dollars, largely from their parents.

All of this is my way of saying you can’t generalize about boomer’s finances… It’s too big a cross section and the economy hit many boomers hard.

[UCGal]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Whatever interest rates were at the time these boomers “downsized” was what they were. Some took out small mortgages and others paid cash for their “WWII boxes.” Besides buyers with construction backgrounds/connections (purchasing a principal residence), boomers are the principal buyers of “smallish” antiquated (as brian would say, lol) well-located coastal SFRs. Neither of these two categories of buyers are particularly “interest-rate sensitive.” Boomers have seen and bought during all levels of interest rates, mostly at rates far higher than now. I should know how boomers think, cuz I AM one. They could give a rat’s a$$. They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

bg – I’m married to someone firmly in the boomer camp – and I’m on the trailing end of boomers. (born in the early 60’s).

You are right about *some* boomers. But others did not plan for retirement, save, and did the cash out, heloc, atm thing because life was good and life was booming… Then they may have been downsized out of their jobs and it’s very hard to get hired in your 50’s and early 60’s. Add in health issues tend to crop up in these ages – and you’ve got a lot of broke boomers lamenting that the world is unfair.

NPR did a piece on it yesterday morning on Morning Edition.
http://www.vpr.net/npr/132024817/
From that piece

A report released Tuesday looks at a big segment of that population: baby boomers.

Boomers seemed to be blessed: happy-go-lucky, healthy and wealthy. Everything seemed to tilt in their favor, but then they slammed head-on into the Great Recession.

“One of the harsh realities for boomers, especially brought on by this recession, is their optimistic view of the world has been shattered,” says Matt Thornhill, president of The Boomer Project, a market research company.

He says many older adults have suffered huge investment losses, and nearly one in four doesn’t have enough money for even a modest retirement.

“Those boomers today in their late 50s, early 60s who’ve been unemployed for a handful of years now, can’t find a job, find themselves up against health crises and unexpected expenses — they’re just ill-equipped to deal with it,” Thornhill says.

And while those boomers have always seemed comfortably comfortable, the reality is that those ages 50 to 64 have been unemployed longer than other adults, and some 8.5 million have no health coverage.

But some are lucky enough to have rich parents… From another article out today:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2010/12/14/baby-boomers-to-inherit-up-to-116-trillion.html

Baby boomers have even more reasons—11.6 trillion of them—to thank the Greatest Generation. According to a new study, the boomer generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) will inherit that many dollars, largely from their parents.

All of this is my way of saying you can’t generalize about boomer’s finances… It’s too big a cross section and the economy hit many boomers hard.

[UCGal]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Whatever interest rates were at the time these boomers “downsized” was what they were. Some took out small mortgages and others paid cash for their “WWII boxes.” Besides buyers with construction backgrounds/connections (purchasing a principal residence), boomers are the principal buyers of “smallish” antiquated (as brian would say, lol) well-located coastal SFRs. Neither of these two categories of buyers are particularly “interest-rate sensitive.” Boomers have seen and bought during all levels of interest rates, mostly at rates far higher than now. I should know how boomers think, cuz I AM one. They could give a rat’s a$$. They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

bg – I’m married to someone firmly in the boomer camp – and I’m on the trailing end of boomers. (born in the early 60’s).

You are right about *some* boomers. But others did not plan for retirement, save, and did the cash out, heloc, atm thing because life was good and life was booming… Then they may have been downsized out of their jobs and it’s very hard to get hired in your 50’s and early 60’s. Add in health issues tend to crop up in these ages – and you’ve got a lot of broke boomers lamenting that the world is unfair.

NPR did a piece on it yesterday morning on Morning Edition.
http://www.vpr.net/npr/132024817/
From that piece

A report released Tuesday looks at a big segment of that population: baby boomers.

Boomers seemed to be blessed: happy-go-lucky, healthy and wealthy. Everything seemed to tilt in their favor, but then they slammed head-on into the Great Recession.

“One of the harsh realities for boomers, especially brought on by this recession, is their optimistic view of the world has been shattered,” says Matt Thornhill, president of The Boomer Project, a market research company.

He says many older adults have suffered huge investment losses, and nearly one in four doesn’t have enough money for even a modest retirement.

“Those boomers today in their late 50s, early 60s who’ve been unemployed for a handful of years now, can’t find a job, find themselves up against health crises and unexpected expenses — they’re just ill-equipped to deal with it,” Thornhill says.

And while those boomers have always seemed comfortably comfortable, the reality is that those ages 50 to 64 have been unemployed longer than other adults, and some 8.5 million have no health coverage.

But some are lucky enough to have rich parents… From another article out today:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-best-life/2010/12/14/baby-boomers-to-inherit-up-to-116-trillion.html

Baby boomers have even more reasons—11.6 trillion of them—to thank the Greatest Generation. According to a new study, the boomer generation (people born between 1946 and 1964) will inherit that many dollars, largely from their parents.

All of this is my way of saying you can’t generalize about boomer’s finances… It’s too big a cross section and the economy hit many boomers hard.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . The bubble heads were saying the buyers bought for retirement in the “best downtown in the country” and they would never sell. Results: foreclosures galore.[/quote]

brian, I was working in a dtn firm in 2004 where several boomer employees were “downsizing” from their longtime family homes to dtn condos. I’ve always been bearish on condos, saw all the construction that was going on and wondered where all these buyers would come from (esp. in East Village). I didn’t voice my opinions to these co-workers because it would have been politically improper in that workplace to do so. My boomer-neighbors in 91902 who downsized to WWII boxes in 92106/92107 fared a whole lot better than the boomers that downsized to dtn. The several neighbors I am referring to did so in 2001 or before.

It’s foolhardy to buy into a condo project that is unfinished and where most of the units are not sold. You could find yourself living practically alone in a large building with an insolvent HOA.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . The bubble heads were saying the buyers bought for retirement in the “best downtown in the country” and they would never sell. Results: foreclosures galore.[/quote]

brian, I was working in a dtn firm in 2004 where several boomer employees were “downsizing” from their longtime family homes to dtn condos. I’ve always been bearish on condos, saw all the construction that was going on and wondered where all these buyers would come from (esp. in East Village). I didn’t voice my opinions to these co-workers because it would have been politically improper in that workplace to do so. My boomer-neighbors in 91902 who downsized to WWII boxes in 92106/92107 fared a whole lot better than the boomers that downsized to dtn. The several neighbors I am referring to did so in 2001 or before.

It’s foolhardy to buy into a condo project that is unfinished and where most of the units are not sold. You could find yourself living practically alone in a large building with an insolvent HOA.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . The bubble heads were saying the buyers bought for retirement in the “best downtown in the country” and they would never sell. Results: foreclosures galore.[/quote]

brian, I was working in a dtn firm in 2004 where several boomer employees were “downsizing” from their longtime family homes to dtn condos. I’ve always been bearish on condos, saw all the construction that was going on and wondered where all these buyers would come from (esp. in East Village). I didn’t voice my opinions to these co-workers because it would have been politically improper in that workplace to do so. My boomer-neighbors in 91902 who downsized to WWII boxes in 92106/92107 fared a whole lot better than the boomers that downsized to dtn. The several neighbors I am referring to did so in 2001 or before.

It’s foolhardy to buy into a condo project that is unfinished and where most of the units are not sold. You could find yourself living practically alone in a large building with an insolvent HOA.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . The bubble heads were saying the buyers bought for retirement in the “best downtown in the country” and they would never sell. Results: foreclosures galore.[/quote]

brian, I was working in a dtn firm in 2004 where several boomer employees were “downsizing” from their longtime family homes to dtn condos. I’ve always been bearish on condos, saw all the construction that was going on and wondered where all these buyers would come from (esp. in East Village). I didn’t voice my opinions to these co-workers because it would have been politically improper in that workplace to do so. My boomer-neighbors in 91902 who downsized to WWII boxes in 92106/92107 fared a whole lot better than the boomers that downsized to dtn. The several neighbors I am referring to did so in 2001 or before.

It’s foolhardy to buy into a condo project that is unfinished and where most of the units are not sold. You could find yourself living practically alone in a large building with an insolvent HOA.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . The bubble heads were saying the buyers bought for retirement in the “best downtown in the country” and they would never sell. Results: foreclosures galore.[/quote]

brian, I was working in a dtn firm in 2004 where several boomer employees were “downsizing” from their longtime family homes to dtn condos. I’ve always been bearish on condos, saw all the construction that was going on and wondered where all these buyers would come from (esp. in East Village). I didn’t voice my opinions to these co-workers because it would have been politically improper in that workplace to do so. My boomer-neighbors in 91902 who downsized to WWII boxes in 92106/92107 fared a whole lot better than the boomers that downsized to dtn. The several neighbors I am referring to did so in 2001 or before.

It’s foolhardy to buy into a condo project that is unfinished and where most of the units are not sold. You could find yourself living practically alone in a large building with an insolvent HOA.

[briansd1]

UCGal, good references.

About the boomers inheriting from the Greatest Generation $11.6 trillion, to put that in perspective, we are now a nearly $15 trillion economy, so the wealth to be inherited is less than a year’s economic output.

Boomers are a profligate group. They are used to instant gratification and don’t know any other way of life. They will spend that money quickly (and provide a boost to the economy for a while).

I’m thinking that we will have millions of boomers up the creek with no one to care for them in their old age. Time will tell…

[briansd1]

UCGal, good references.

About the boomers inheriting from the Greatest Generation $11.6 trillion, to put that in perspective, we are now a nearly $15 trillion economy, so the wealth to be inherited is less than a year’s economic output.

Boomers are a profligate group. They are used to instant gratification and don’t know any other way of life. They will spend that money quickly (and provide a boost to the economy for a while).

I’m thinking that we will have millions of boomers up the creek with no one to care for them in their old age. Time will tell…

[briansd1]

UCGal, good references.

About the boomers inheriting from the Greatest Generation $11.6 trillion, to put that in perspective, we are now a nearly $15 trillion economy, so the wealth to be inherited is less than a year’s economic output.

Boomers are a profligate group. They are used to instant gratification and don’t know any other way of life. They will spend that money quickly (and provide a boost to the economy for a while).

I’m thinking that we will have millions of boomers up the creek with no one to care for them in their old age. Time will tell…

[briansd1]

UCGal, good references.

About the boomers inheriting from the Greatest Generation $11.6 trillion, to put that in perspective, we are now a nearly $15 trillion economy, so the wealth to be inherited is less than a year’s economic output.

Boomers are a profligate group. They are used to instant gratification and don’t know any other way of life. They will spend that money quickly (and provide a boost to the economy for a while).

I’m thinking that we will have millions of boomers up the creek with no one to care for them in their old age. Time will tell…

[Author]

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