Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[sdrealtor]

deadzone
The property is up in OC. It was new construction and he bought in late 2003 but closed in mid 2004. I ran comps for him a few months back. If I sold it for him we could pay off the 1st, cover buyer commissions and escrow/title charges. He is like a brother and I wouldnt charge him anything for my side.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

I welcome higher interest rates, that will kill prices even more. I would prefer to pay higher interest rates for lower principal (i.e less likely to deppreciate) any day of the week.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

I welcome higher interest rates, that will kill prices even more. I would prefer to pay higher interest rates for lower principal (i.e less likely to deppreciate) any day of the week.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

I welcome higher interest rates, that will kill prices even more. I would prefer to pay higher interest rates for lower principal (i.e less likely to deppreciate) any day of the week.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

I welcome higher interest rates, that will kill prices even more. I would prefer to pay higher interest rates for lower principal (i.e less likely to deppreciate) any day of the week.

[Anonymous]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=deadzone]So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

deadzone, FWIW, I’m not currently active in RE sales. No one here is telling potential Pigg-buyers that they shouldn’t sit on the fence if they wish to. It’s a free country. But if you have your sights set on an area with little to no distress and are waiting a few months/years to buy in hopes the prices will go down, GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

Just don’t come back whining that the prices are still too high and/or interest rates are too high in 2012 (or whenever you decide to jump off the fence and get serious about buying).

Did you ever stop to think that future price and/or mtg interest rate could make it HARDER than it is today to purchase the same property in 2012 and beyond??[/quote]

I welcome higher interest rates, that will kill prices even more. I would prefer to pay higher interest rates for lower principal (i.e less likely to deppreciate) any day of the week.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding the lower pricing I am seeing in La Jolla, it is a combination of all cases. There are some short sales, some foreclosures, and in some cases long time residents (presumably way above water) who are finally waking up to reality that they have to lower their asking prices significantly if they want to sell.[/quote]

Why do these “way above water long time residents” in LJ have to lower their asking prices significantly if they wish to sell? Are there short-sale closings and foreclosures on their street? What’s keeping these longtime owners from withdrawing their current listing and waiting for a “better day?”

I maintain that the way above water sellers you speak of who feel they MUST reduce in order to sell MUST SELL NOW for a REASON during a time when nearby lower sold comps are affecting the value of their properties. Those nearby lower sold comps are lower for a REASON. What are those REASONS, deadzone??

If you knew these answers as well as what the likelihood was that this scenario would continue to “play out” in a “micro-area,” then you might be able to determine if now would be a good time to buy in that area.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC built in the last 20 years on about 1/2 acre, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC built in the last 20 years on about 1/2 acre, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC built in the last 20 years on about 1/2 acre, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]It’s funny how the real estate types like to poke holes in the “reset chart”. Here are the usual lines:
1. It doesn’t affect all areas
2. Most of those loans have already been re-financed to fixed
3. The reset will actually lower payments with current interest rates.

Well there is some truth to all three. BUT, there is not any empirical data to prove how much of those bad loans have been cleaned up. And for any of you potential home buyers out there, given the data prsented in the chart, you would be advised to wait out till at least 2012 to get serious about buying (if you can hold off the nagging wife).

Point is this, regardless of what the realtors say, that chart is pretty clear and there is a very real possiblity for a large price drop in the next two years in all areas. Furthermore, NOBODY, not even the housing bulls are predicting any significant price appreciation in the next two years.

So why risk it? The downside risk clearly outweighs the upside.
(sdr need not reply with his “my home is not an investment” lecture, heard it 1000 times before).[/quote]

If you could buy a large well built custom estate home west of the 5 in NCC built in the last 20 years on about 1/2 acre, the kind that very rarely comes on the market at any price for better than 40% off peak and 20% below current appraised value would you still say the downside risk clearly outweighs the upside?

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