Homes prices to fall 2% according to NAR

[kev374]

another completely idiotic report from the NAR:

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1324023.php

I think Leslie Appleton is the biggest buffoon around. One would hope she would’ve learned the first time her forecast was off. These guys deliberately spread false information in an effort to make people believe there is no housing bubble!

[santeeman]

What the **** 2% is this for real? That is not a lot! But then even if that is true that’s pushing down the market and it not Appreciating and it gives income and rents a chance to catch up.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Alright…

Enough with the “increase in rents and income” theory–you aren’t going to find many people on these forums who agree with you. The real estate market is simply not going to play out the way I interpret your posts and comments to read (no soft landing, sorry). Let’s check back on this one in a year to see who is right…

[santeeman]

Haven’t you ever heard, never A-S-S-U-M-E. As a matter of fact there are plenty who agree the rents are going up. The point I am trying to make is this, lot’s of people on this site conclude that there will be over a 50% market correction. I feel that is misleading. People at that point can afford their mortgages. Other factors will of course enter into this whole housing mess,don’t count on aything. If you got screwed one way there is always another way to have it happen, and hype and hysteria sent the market where it is today. By no means do I think I know there will be a soft landing, but then I am not sure what is going to happen next.

[Bugs]

LA-Y was absolutely right about the 2% loss – for the months of January and February of this year.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

santeeman,

Except me, NOBODY in this site has claimed that they can 100% see what is going to happen next at specific times. They show nice charts, graphs, and visuals – sure, and then extrapolate from there – but none said “FOR SURE, my prediction will come true.” Powayseller, inspite or despite her bold predictions and popularity (or notoriety, it depends), AND WHO I AM SORELY MISSING NOW, does not even come close to claiming that crown and never admitted to being a psychic. Clairvoyance (sp?) belongs only to me and my crystal ball, buddy. HA-HAha. Sorry for you.

And just to humor the likes of me, please haphazard a startling bold prediction once in while. Even better, give me a prediction that would make me run under the bed. It makes reading so exciting, fun, and addicting. And if that kind of prediction comes true, well, just imagine me going spazzztic (is there such a word?)

[santeeman]

I have got some land for sale, coastal property, Arizona…..one of my many predictions….lol

[no_such_reality]

Can’t close the gap.

income and rents a chance to catch up.

Orange County’s median single family detached home is $679,000. With GRM multiplier of 13, means the median home needs $58,000 a year in rent, currently, the median housedhold income is ~$60,000 in Orange County.

That’s a tad bit of a problem to overcome, to drive equivalent rent value to a normal level of income share (30%) will require a tripling of income. At 5% a year in average income increases, it’ll take 25 years.

[santeeman]

Houses are comming down. That doesn’t change the fact that folks aren’t going to be able to afford their rents if they escalate in an attempt to get their landlord’s mortgage paid. You don’t think, just as folks see higher prices for home sales, folks renting houses won’t see the higher asking prices for rent and think their house is worth that too. Anyway, why do I bother, people hate the devils advocate. Just stating a different point of view. Don’t be so sure, but then again ignorance is bliss.

[noone]

While I agree that most of the drivel that comes from the RE industry is marketing propaganda, keep in mind that she is talking about California as a whole. When you look at all of California, prices are still up YOY:

The median price paid for a home last month was $466,000. That was down 1.3 percent from August’s $472,000, and up 2.4 percent from $455,000 for September a year ago.
http://www.dqnews.com/CHCA1006.shtm

However, if the trend in price declines continues by more than 1 percent each month, the idea of only a 2 percent drop will seem ludicrous.

[little lady]

While the CA total YOY is up, I believe prices are comming down. Try telling my neighbor who’s price @ peak was 150,000
more than what she got for it. Driving around you see “bank repo” instead of sold, the climate has changed. Houses won’t become affordable without a downturn, and a pause, eventually YOY for Cali will show it.

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